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Author: [Investments] Topic: walstreet...
TheBest send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetDSI |
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#1
Posted: 9/25/2012 7:45:18 AM
couldnt help but ask this was reading this
DNDN is a fraud piece of crap, we went over this one back before they got the fraud approval for Provenge.
I should have shorted the crap out of it when they got approval and it went over 50.
Stock still selling at 8 plus times sales with negative margins."

i was reading that feel same way but then i thought about this one company stock ticker  MDVN 
company has gone for 12 a share to a little over 112 a share and just split same type of product as dndn all the good news priced in seems wayy overpriced management just came in and split the stock to make it look cheap smart move by them but i think this may be a good short  and was wondering if u ever looked at it. I trade every day i been watching this stock for months let me know what u think .
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#2
Posted: 9/25/2012 11:15:29 AM
Well at 4 bucks DNDN isnt AS much of a fraud as when over 50..so for sure it went where I thought it should.

Another fraud is MED..its a MLM-ish diet stock and I think fair value for it is in the middle single digits, trading in the high 20s right now.

I will check out that stock and let you know what I see.
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#3
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:41:37 AM
med looks like a tough short to me i agree looks like a crap stock in the diet industry but they actually raised guidance in july who knows with that stock. i just know there is gonna be some great shorts at this very moment and im looking for something big the market is way overpriced in my opinion being manipulated by ben bernanke and obama as soon as the election is over i expect a big fall from graceland.
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#4
Posted: 9/26/2012 1:48:29 PM
Wow..

A 10 bagger in less than 2 yrs on that one.

While trailing 12 month sales look low, the last two quarters have seen a big time ramp..nearly triple year over year.

Margins are still negative even with the big ramp in sales, I guess you are betting on or against their oral prostate cancer pill.

So what makes you think the pill will be a dud?

I thought DNDN was a phony based on hoax med that Provenge was and how they got approval based on a mixed bag of data and results.


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#5
Posted: 9/29/2012 8:11:16 AM
well let me just stay analysts have a mean price target of 131 which is still alot higher but i think thats a big too high. the management was very smart in splitting the stock 2 for 1 making the shares look "cheap": but here's why i like it as a good short.
1.company currently trades at almost 40 times its book value
2.Medivation trades at lofty - but potentially unsustainable - levels that fail to properly reflect the following: rights to only a portion of future drug sales and initial access to only a limited section of the market
3.fierce competition from a similar drug and documented progress toward a superior version of its own therapy
4.inexperience in commercial operations and dependence on a marketing partner where sales reps have long complained of toxic working conditions; and prior clinical results that sparked false hopes for an earlier drug that ultimately failed

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#6
Posted: 9/29/2012 8:11:58 AM
5.Even if Medivation finally hits a homerun, with Enzalutamide ultimately achieving blockbuster status, the company already boasts a market cap that approaches the $4 billion value placed on the future market for prostate cancer therapies as a whole. Since Medivation must split any revenue generated by Envalutamide with a funding partner, however, its market cap theoretically reflects only half of the overall value assigned to its only product. In other words, investors have effectively pegged the full value of Enzalutamide above the projected value of the entire market for prostate cancer drugs.
6.Medivation cannot even target most of the patients included in that market for a while, either, with the company seeking initial approval of Enzalutamide only for those who have previously failed chemotherapy. While Medivation clearly expects to expand beyond that limited niche -- which accounts for just one-third of the estimated market overall -- the company must first secure official approval before it can actively promote its drug to that larger crowd.
7. Aragon pharma this is a huge threat. 

Both drugs originate from novel compounds discovered in the laboratory of acclaimed medical researcher Dr. Charles Sawyers, who actually views the competing drug ARN-509 -- nicknamed the "Son of Medivation" -- as the more promising of the two.It came out later than MDV3100 and is more potent, and has a better safety profile.

Aragon's drug is in phase 2 at the current moment with phase 1 showing very promising results this one product could dethrone medivation just as badly as dndn was dethroned by medivation.

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#7
Posted: 9/29/2012 8:28:32 AM
i believe medivation is very close to its top analysts have target of 65 it sits currently at 56.35 all good news is already priced into its stock price will very little good news left to pop the stock and a windfall of potential bad news looming i see a great short incoming. i am not short as of yet but i will be keeping a strong eye on the stock movement i believe it will reach its top within the next month at which time i will initiate my short position and build should it continue rising.
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#8
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:09:25 PM
Do they have any other items in their pipeline?

Bio-pharma stocks sell at premium caps vs the general market, so to me the question is if they have other ponies in the stable and what projected revenues are long term (sharing asjusted).

If sales and revenues keep accelerating then the stock might still have more room to go. It would probably be a grind short, you might suffer for a while until the momentum wears off and sales slow or decelerate.
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#9
Posted: 10/7/2012 3:56:49 AM
well they keep uping the price target its almost comical and no big other drugs in the pipeline . so basically the time to short this thing will be when the frst sales from the new drug are realeased then this thing will come crashing down like a rock

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#10
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:37:48 PM
im starting my short position in at 55.08 short 200 shares 
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