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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB: A system to consider Part 4
TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 928
Location: Virginia
#1
Posted: 3/23/2013 12:13:02 PM

13. I don't bet over and unders very often - however, if you do it's important to look at the weather and whether the wind is blowing in out etc. - high composite pitchers, wind blowing out and the o/under line is high - the game is going over. Same scenario but the line on the game is very low - bet the under - oddsmakers are smarter than me.

14. HF favorites - if i like a team that is a huge favorite - i will bet them in a parlay vice m/l.  Sometimes I bet on the run line but usually parlays.  I don't like laying the lumber so suggest betting 2 team parlays. 

15. I have data that i have recorded in a spreadsheet since 2009 - i continue to add to it and make notes. Besides simply recording the line and the composite i record if teams won or lost on 7 game streaks and other information that helps me choose my spots.  

16. Note - when you are at sagarin's website and recording the numbers - most of the time the pitchers will have a higher mob than the ricky (read sagarins definitions for a ricky), however, if they are part of an elite group and they have a higher ricky than mob - i record it this way (ricky - mob), for example, if a pitcher has a ricky of 11 and an mob of 6 (11 - 6 = P 5)   - meaning the composite would be P5 and that's what i would put in my spreadsheet. 

17. All you are trying to do is mimic history.

18. Also, for the first week of baseball season what i do is look at preseason spring data - era, strikeouts and mob and compare that with opening lines -if the spring data doesn't make sense with the vegas line  - i often will go with the vegas line and take the favorite. however, if the lines are between 110 - 150 - i go with what pitcher has the best spring data.  Once bot pitchers have pitched a game - I implement the system.

19. For playoffs - you want to create another spreadsheet.  All in all you will have 3 spreadsheets.  Recording the data helped me pick the Giants 7 games straight - checkout my posts in the MLB forum. 

20. It takes work but once you get started you will feel more confident in your picks and should bring home some cash. Good luck all.

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