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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: What about this angle for MLB betting?
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DegenGamble
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#1
Posted: 7/8/2012 3:40:29 PM
By itself this angle may work - but I think it probably should be incorporated into an over-arching handicapping approach.

Premise:

Identify teams that are HOT and playing teams that are COLD.

Easier said then done.  So I ventured to identify HOT teams playing COLD teams.

Essentially it tries to find matchups using the teams L10 and L7 stats where:
A good hitting team is facing a lousy pitching team.
A good pitching team is facing a lousy hitting team.
One team has a very leaky bullpen.
Other team has a very good bullpen

So I automated the process and here it is.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbR2ZQeGxIRnNYUmc

I would like to get your thoughts and feedback on the theory.  So what do you guys think?
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SUPEREAGLE43 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 7/8/2012 6:36:37 PM
I like it. You really have to be in sinc with what's going on across the league to have a good feel before its too late.  This is one of the ways that I make my selections. An example this weekend was the white sox. They are playing well lately and were against a pitching depleted Toronto who had somehow been staying above water with their good offense. The sox at home are hot and are also a solid team. My guess was they would take 3 of 4 or at least 2.  I really like this approach, discipline here would be huge. The problem I have is playing too many series other than the 1 or 2 that fit this theory.
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DegenGamble
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#3
Posted: 7/8/2012 7:03:13 PM

Yeah - supereagle - I have that same discipline problem which usually gets me into trouble -

I still think the theory behind it needs to be included in an over-arching handicapping process - but it's possible that just using the core concepts included in the spreadsheet could yield positive results in a 2 game chase.

Especially if looking for undervalued dogs.
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#4
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:17:55 PM
Another weakness I have is taking dogs. I just cant pull the trigger on em.
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#5
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:24:23 PM
Maybe we can use this thread to discuss what series we feel meet the criteria, narrow down, and come up with quality plays together.
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#6
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:50:48 PM
Sure - sounds good - I put the spreadsheet together to use for the 2nd half of the season. Really to incorporate into a larger handicapping process - but any feedback that will improve its efficiency or provide insight that was previously overlooked would be helpful
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#7
Posted: 7/13/2012 3:06:18 PM

Now - i would rather wait a few games since all teams were off for the all star break - and there is no gaurentee that their L10 streak will continue after the break BUT....

Batting Rank

DET - 2

BAL - 30

Pitching Rank

DET - 15

BAL - 26

So if DET remains hot and BAL remains cold - a good play today for a 2 game chase would be DET

 
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DegenGamble
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#8
Posted: 7/14/2012 1:23:41 AM
DET made it look easy - no need to chase with a "A" game win.
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#9
Posted: 7/14/2012 6:04:18 PM
Batting Rank

TEX - 26
SEA - 29

Pitching Rank

TEX - 7
SEA - 5

Good pitching on both sides at the moment versus lousy hitting - mean UNDER

TEX / SEA UNDER 6.5
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#10
Posted: 7/14/2012 11:43:46 PM

I know if you lose by 10 runs or just by 1 - it doesn't matter - a loss is a loss.

But is it me or a loss by 1/2 of a run just stings just a bit more....
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