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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Fading the public.........
canadiantruth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
canadiantruth
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#1
Posted: 5/2/2011 5:43:03 PM
I know this has been discussed to death, but I would like to revive it one more time, not as a system, but as a strategy.

Does anyone have any type of stats for this?

From my experience (keeping track on and off for nba over 3 years), if the public is 70% on one side, fading them is great (aprox 60%).

From your experience, does this translate well into other sports?  Have you noticed a difference for moneyline, spreads, runlines, over/unders, etc?  

I know alot of people say that fading the public doesn't work and that it is eventually 50/50, but quite simply that is not true from my personal experience.  It does work.  Particularly if you wait for "your spots" and use common sense.  

So- stats, experiences, thoughts......
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jones2307 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#2
Posted: 5/2/2011 6:12:19 PM
I dont have any stats but would love to see some. 

I agree that if you pick your spots its a good play, or has been for me. These NBA playoffs have been especially good to me going against the public in certain spots. Especially fading with reverse line movement on totals. (great example is bulls/hawks tonight.)
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canadiantruth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
canadiantruth
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#3
Posted: 5/3/2011 12:55:57 PM
Jones,
I noticed that as well on the game tonight, looks interesting.  I have never played reverse line movement (just movement in general) and I'll start keeping track of some of those stats too.

These playoffs, fading second half line movement on the total has also been absolutely .

Opens at 88,  moves to 89.5 or 90.......wow, pound that under.  It amazes me that this one isn't talked about more often.

Another interesting trend these playoffs, first game of a series =  over.  I believe it is 10-3 now.
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