Florida Derby analysis

Florida Derby 2013

BTW---Lines of Battle is now the leader in the Derby points standings after his win today in Dubai.

Will the real Shanghai Bobby please stand up?

#1 Shanghai Bobby…..This horse has done nothing wrong in his career, yet listening to some of the pundits, you’d think he was a classic underachiever. Bobby is 6/5-1-0 in his career with his lone blemish a loss to the ML fave in this one, Itsmyluckyday, in the Holy Bull losing by two. I’ll take 5-2 (ML) on him any day. I do not like the post, but he has a capable pilot in Rosie who might do well to stay close to Itsmyluckyday, assuming IMLD goes near the lead to challenge Merit Man, who is expected to move upfront.

#3 Itsmyluckyday……He has hit another gear lately busting Beyers of 104 and 102 in his last two. He’s 2 for 2 at GP and local conditioner Plesa knows every inch of this track. Elvis T. rides.

Does anyone think this might set up for a mid-to-deep closers? If so, the ones to watch are……

#6 Orb…..Impressive in running down Violence in the Fountain of Youth, this Shug trained, Johnny V. ridden son of Malibu Moon can be the upsetter…..even though his odds are just 3-1 on the ML, the second fave. Orb has the points for the Derby qualifier with Shug saying he’s not going to really push the horse at this point. Proceed at your own risk, but if it breaks down upfront, Orb might have the clear path.

#10 Narvaez…….Holy Bull colt is a bit under the radar here. I say that because he could sit chilly at mid-pack or so, and then set down for a closing trip. Big improvement last out with Castellano . However, Paco Lopez rides for decent conditioner Bezara….a playable under today.

The rest of the contenders…..

#8 Merit Man…..I think his best chance to win is to try to wire the field, but I just can’t see that happening. While he won the Spectacular Bid here in near wire fashion, his Hutcheson performance was a ho-hum affair. He did lose by just fewer than 3 lengths after being steadied in the backstretch and I do like Kent D. in the saddle. However, I think he’s a cut below the top three. 15-1 ML says a lot.

#2 Pick of the Litter…..This is a very nice improving Kitten’s Joy colt for Dale Romans who learned a lot his last out hitting a very impressive 95 on the Beyer. He stayed close and then gunned to a 7-1/2 length win in that race. While I don’t think he can win this one, with the late kick he could grab a major piece.

#7 Indy’s Illusion…..Another one that could surprise if the leaders stop as he looks to be on a bit of the improve. Not sure he can run with these, but his last three were at 1-1/8 miles. That distance is seemingly just a 1/16 of a mile too long for him. Out of A.P. Indy, let’s see what happens. Take a closer look if this track comes up wet.

My picks:

Eenie meenie miney moe…..

#3 Itsmyluckyday to win and place…..playing the chalk here almost out of default. I do like the local angle most of all and thinking he can stay near the lead and have enough to hold off closing contenders.

$18 exacta straight: 3/6

$10 exacta straight: 6/3

$8 exacta wheel: 3/1,2,7,10

$4 exacta wheel: 6/1,2,7,10

thanks guys.....hoping the crowd spreads the odds so there is a half-way decent exacta pay.

Good Luck!

Hey KURSCH! Hope all is well.

ORder of finish:

6

Order of finish

6 Orb

3 Imtsmyluckyday

8 Merit Ma

10 Navaraez (at 99-1 to round out the Super, which paid $4861 on a $2 ticket)

I was quite surpised to see Navraez go to the lead. I need to see the replay a ffew times to see see how much that might have hurt IMLD's stamina, as well as helping Orb

Good race!