best bet of the game

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: best bet of the game
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:36:02 PM

Kentucky under 17.5 MADE foul shots  -120

Already leaning under in this game.  Calipari teams notoriously bad FT shooters. 

Likely my only play of this game unless I throw in the Under 138 or Davis over 29.5  pts + rebs + blocks

222bad PM 222bad
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:49:44 PM
    I believe you're thinking about Calipari's Memphis teams, not this Kentucky team. They shoot  just around 70% depending if you look at full season, last 5, or all tournaments,neutral courts, etc. etc. I'll give you a couple games so far in the tournament to support both your case and mine.  Last game vs Louisville they sucked from the line, 11-20-----55%. Against the Hoosiers they were 34-37-----94.6%. 18-25 vs W Ken, 30-44 vs Baylor, and 15-22 vs Iowa St.  Overall in the 5 tournament games they're 114-157 averaging 23-31 right around their season average. I'd be more apt to go with the average than any one particular game, but you might get lucky and win that prop.  Better ones out there in my opinion.  BOL
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:53:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

Kentucky under 17.5 MADE foul shots  -120

Already leaning under in this game.  Calipari teams notoriously bad FT shooters. 

Likely my only play of this game unless I throw in the Under 138 or Davis over 29.5  pts + rebs + blocks


His teams have been bad in the past, but the last two seasons his teams have been 70+ percent from the stripe. His first year at KY here and his Memphis teams were below 65-66 %.

GL
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:54:04 PM

true but those seem like outliers...i think this game will play more like the louisville game and UK won't get more than 20-25 attempts.  37 attempts vs IU and 44 vs Baylor are just ridiculous.

can see them going like 16-21 or something.  Refs should also back off a bit and let them play to avoid any possible scrutiny or criticism from the ncaa

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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:54:28 PM
they've had an incredible run at the stripe during this tourney, but it all changed last game.....bol..
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:55:18 PM

on the big stage vs louisville 11-20 aka 55% is abysmal.  this is an even bigger stage with more pressure, i can see them missing a decent amount

there could be better props out there, haven't found one yet

Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 12:57:01 PM

gilchrist points OVER could be decent  12.5 with -130.

good opportunity to show scouts hes more than just Davis's shadow and last shot to bolster his stock before the draft.  think he'll be a very solid nba player

222bad PM 222bad
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:03:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

gilchrist points OVER could be decent  12.5 with -130.

good opportunity to show scouts hes more than just Davis's shadow and last shot to bolster his stock before the draft.  think he'll be a very solid nba player

    Just be sure the quad injuries okay.  Seems slightly low, the injury might be why.  BOL.  I actually like the Davis over in your first post. Cats had 13 blocks in the first meeting and I expect somewhere in this game they'll have to try and bring it inside if they can't hit from outside. Give him double digit rebounds and he'd only have to score around 15 to go over the 29 1/2.
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:12:53 PM
222
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:16:39 PM
davis most out standing player -275
MrTuttle05 PM MrTuttle05
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:22:03 PM
Depending on the score @ the end of the game you could be looking at an additional 10 FT attempts as Kansas tries to lengthen the game to catch up.  

Also to call two games (Baylor/Indiana - even though that's a lot of FTA) out of 5 games "outliers" is just bad practice - you're essentially just throwing aside any arguments that oppose you.

Either way, good luck with your bet, but I have a feeling you'll be sweating this one out.
222bad PM 222bad
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:24:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

davis most out standing player -275
  Pretty much says it all.  That and the ML going up.
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:24:27 PM

true the 17.5 # just jumped at me because i figure uk will shoot ~60-70%  and i don't see them getting to the line more than 30 times

MrTuttle05 PM MrTuttle05
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:25:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrTuttle05:

 
Also to call two games (Baylor/Indiana - even though that's a lot of FTA) out of 5 games "outliers" is just bad practice - you're essentially just throwing aside any arguments that oppose you.


Just to expand - shooting over 35 FT's in 40% of their tournament games is nowhere near an "outlier".  Kentucky would have to go close to 100 more games without shooting over 35 FT's to even approach the point where you could consider those games as "outliers"
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:26:00 PM

and those are absolutely outliers if you watched both the IU and Baylor games, complete track meets

MrTuttle05 PM MrTuttle05
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:26:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

true the 17.5 # just jumped at me because i figure uk will shoot ~60-70%  and i don't see them getting to the line more than 30 times


 Either way, good luck.  Hopefully you don't have to sweat this one out!
dmfan21 PM dmfan21
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:30:08 PM
hey bud... they made like 30 free throws against indiana... not sure if someone else put that in this thread... i only know this because they covered my second half and they hit like 14 in a row or something to close out the game... i really like ky -3.5 first half and that is what I will be playing
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:30:55 PM

i understanad the pure statistics of outliers and such but also consider more lenient refs as of late in the championship game

butler /uconn  30 total FTA

bulter / duke 34 total FTA

 

Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:31:20 PM

tuttle

Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 2:12:36 PM
more i think about it and listen to radio and watch tv the more i like kentucky

espn, talking heads in the media trying to build up hype as if this could be a close game.  hopefully for cbs it is for ratings sake.

kentucky 82 kansas 69 

gl
scot PM scot
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Posted: 4/2/2012 2:15:03 PM
Best bet Kentucky -3.5 first half    Kansas is notorious for slow starts  bet them against OS 2d half + 10.5  GL
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 2:39:54 PM
by notorious you probably mean the last 2 or 3 games of the tournament 
SportsFreak69 PM SportsFreak69
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Posted: 4/2/2012 2:45:53 PM
Best of Luck 
California21 PM California21
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Posted: 4/2/2012 3:06:00 PM
This is a terrible bet ... Kentucky is solid at the line plus they draw a lot of fouls ... This bet will be dead with 4 minutes left
Posted using a mobile device.
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 4/2/2012 11:47:39 PM
first post woudl have killed it tonight
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