|I locked in long ago on Pac to win a decision at +170 with a hedge on Rds 7-12 at +350. The odds have moved but you should still structure your wager in the same capacity....
Posted: 6/9/2012 12:56:24 PM
Pac is now +125 by DEC (this is your primary wager)...hedged with him to get a stoppage in Rd 7-12 at +350.
For example, you place $500 on Manny to win a Decision...with an $1125 return....netting you $425, b/c you then place another $200 on him to win between Rds 7-12 for a $700 return...netting you $200 return. You can mix and match to get an equal return on either wager but I am leaning toward a decision win here which is why my stake is higher on that end. You do as you please.
I dont see this fight ending in the first 6 rounds. Bradley has been fighting more conservatively in the early rounds as his career has gone. He likes to feel fighters out earlier in fights - this comes from experience. He just to just bumrush dudes from the opening bell. He now boxes as much as he brawls, if not more. He also respects Pacquaio, which will make him fight even more cautious that usual - cautious approach = longer fight. Bradley is not a dumb guy, he's not going to let himself getting embarrassingly sparked out quickly here. I think we will see him amp up the pressure as the fight goes on which could see him getting stopped later on.
Bradley's path to victory? Well, he doesnt really have 1. He's not a puncher (12 KOs in 28 fights) and he's fighting a guy who has been in with light middleweights. Bradley doesnt know out light welters, he's not going to knock out a guy who has traded punches with Margarito, Mosley and DeLaHoya. Also, Bradley has no prayer of actually winning a decision b/c Arum will not allow that to happen.