|just started a continuing thread that was negative to start, so I made a new thread not to mislead anyone. Nice input lately... keep it up! It was a minor dispute and I didn't want to continue a thread that was getting positive info start off negatively regarding "walktheline". That's old news and over with.
Posted: 2/4/2012 2:33:10 AM
Jaybirdy :Wowzers, you guys are BRUTAL.
Hoping not to offend anyone, but definately NOT looking for any type of respect, dont give a garbage.
Floyd to Win will make it Rain on your Bankroll. Not saying it works
every time.....darn it, I AM saying it works every time !! I've heard
so much hype and bullshit about EVERY SINGLE fighter Floyd has faced
over the past 5 years, and how HE COULD BE THE GUY........whatever. You
aint gotta like Floyd, hell I dont, but if you deny that hes pretty
much untouchable at this point, you're only kidding yourself. Those who
posess the power, dont have the boxing skills to compete, and those
with highly polished boxing skills, dont have the power to possibly
steal enough rounds from "the tactician". Love him or hate him, I call
you foolish for betting against this guy....
Do you wanna know who the most successful "high stakes gambler" has
been over the past few years. It aint Billy friggin Walters......Its
someone you would NEVER guess. Its friggin rap artist 50 cent. And you
know why. For four years now, he has hit the vegas window and laid
down a cool ONE MILLION DOLLARS on Floyd to Win, every time he has
fought. Do I need to tell you his success rate??
Two of my closest friends made a huge some having to bet everywhere on
three fights I told them to max... Hopkins +400 against Pavlik (and prop
Hopkins to win by dec +650 for a little extra. The other fight was Paul
Williams to beat Winky Wright. Also, to bet a nice amount on Ortiz +350
to beat Berto. I almost only bet even money or underdogs in boxing. In a
sport that you have so many major underdogs that should be favorites, I
advise them to invest wisely, especially in a crooked sports.
Never better a fighter who won the first fight of a rematch in a close
or split decision manner, as the word TRILOGY speaks with such power. I
did that when I bet Morales in his rematch with Barrera (which I felt he
won but I defied my own rules).
B) Use caution betting overs of
fights to win by decision as so many odd things cause fights to end
early, like Dawson-Hopkins, Ortiz-Mayweather, etc, etc...
always tell me a winner is a winner. Yes, but investing how to bet is
more important than picking a higher percentage of winners. Why bet a
large favorite when he will win 99 out of 100 times, because the
risk-reward is not showing proper +EV. If boxing didn't have so many
great even money and underdogs bets (plays that you should be laying
-300 or more).
D) Always get your big money down on the fight itself
and not just the prop. I beefed up the Ortiz bet with props for Ortiz to
win by dec... but every round my heart sunk.
E) The advantage you
have in sports betting is you pick the events you want to bet and the
amount, so patience and ROI criteria can make a bettor who only wins 30%
total of his wagers a huge winner. In sports betting, knowing where and
when to bet (not only who to bet) gives you that extra edge every time
it just keeps compounding using +EV plays.
... One example: A
friend (team-mate) got me to play a 50-50 fight, but at +800. That is a
monster overlay... I normally prefer my own fight odds of 65-35 favorite
being +400, even though the +800 play has a much higher EV. I won't
explain it, but post the original play.
STRYKOR: Boxing: MAURICIO HERRERA +800
Didn't do a deep study like usual on this fight.
RUSLAN PROVODNIKOV vs MAURICIO HERRERA.
Herrera +800 (0.5 Units)
Over 7 Rnds -130 (2.5 Units)
I feel an over, Ruslan has fought many journey-men. So I don't know
if too much of that will slow him down. That's why the over and Herrera
for a shot.
Post #8: Thanks. I felt it was 50/50 fight, depends on judges and if they want
punches, accuracy, etc, in a tough fight. That's a type of fight I call a
draw rematch. They both fought hard, although it might not seem that
way because they lack so many technicals. They should allow these
fighters to rematch and get paid a 3 to 4 times as much. Hope I gave a
9-1 shot winner to someone!
Post #9: My sportsbook had Herrera losing - lol. They forgot his younger brother fought earlier before him and lost.