Posted: 4/27/2012 3:18:15 AM
Basically 4 games is a lot for a non-grand slam match, and Raonic just beat Almagro, who is a top clay courter. Both Murray and Raonic are hard court experts, Murray is better and more experienced, and I like what he's done with Lendl so far, I think he can even take the number 1 in the next few years, but Raonic is a future top 3 player as well. Raonic just stepped up big time so far in Barcelona and I think he'll be competitive tonight. I think it's a crapshoot as far as who wins. Murray with the advantage but not as big as the line would suggest.
Raonic still hasn't been broken so far this tournament and he's played 3 matches. Raonic has a big serve which isn't such a big of an advantage on clay however the guy has been very solid from the baseline as well and I thought he moved well vs Almagro as well. Murray isn't unbeatable, he has a tendency to lose an odd one every once in a while, and not only to Djokovic or Nadal either, he lost to Bogomolov, Garcia-Lopez and Young in the past 6 months.
Last year Murray dropped sets on clay versus guys like Simon, Malisse or Florian Mayer. Why not Raonic?
I expect at least one tie break in the match, which should push this game over. It should also boost value on Raonic ATS as well.
Also, wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian won.
Raonic +4, (5 units) Raonic ML (1 unit) Raonic/Murray over 21,5 (3 units)
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