1/2 Iced Tea & 1/2 Lemonade

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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: 1/2 Iced Tea & 1/2 Lemonade
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/20/2012 2:34:02 PM

Off to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Arnie's Tourny is no push over. The Par 3's are tough (ranked 1st last year in birdies or better), the Par 4's are no joke either (ranked 3rd last year) and even the Par 5's are difficult for the Pro's (ranked 12th last year.) I expect the recipe for sucess to be similar to last week.

 

GIR's

Putting

And my personal favorite this week - Experience (no rookie in the last 3 yrs. has posted a Top 10)

 

 

 

Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/20/2012 3:43:45 PM
Shandigaff.. Arnolds other drink.. beer and ginger ale
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/20/2012 5:26:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Shandigaff.. Arnolds other drink.. beer and ginger ale

I did not know that. I also didn't know a "John Daly" is an Arnold Palmer with Vodka!

PennStateMan077 PM PennStateMan077
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Posted: 3/20/2012 5:42:43 PM
What do you boys think of the New R11S and RBZ Driver.

its finally time to upgrade my driver from my R7Quad.

I used to outdrive all my friends by 15-20 yards, now they all outdrive me by 30ish. 

All my clubs have always been taylor made so I'd like to stay that route
NoWorries21 PM NoWorries21
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Posted: 3/20/2012 7:31:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PennStateMan077:

What do you boys think of the New R11S and RBZ Driver.

its finally time to upgrade my driver from my R7Quad.

I used to outdrive all my friends by 15-20 yards, now they all outdrive me by 30ish. 

All my clubs have always been taylor made so I'd like to stay that route
the rbz 3 wood is super long. BUt there is a reason the bought adams and its not there irons, ball (Dont have one) or clothes (Dont have those either)
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/20/2012 9:33:27 PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Eldrick (-140) over Phil

Simpson (-130) over Rose

Bubba (-110) over Mahan

Watney (+125) over Van Pelt

Furyk (-115) over Snedeker

Z. Johnson (-115) over B. Haas

McDowell (-110) over Choi

Els (-105) over Laird

Woodland (+115) over Toms

Allenby (+110) over Jacobson

Jobe (-115) over Poulter

Tringale (Ev) over Immelman

Points (-105) over Rollins

Garrigus (+150) over Dufner

Overton (+115) over Levin

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 12:22:14 AM
Tiger only managed even par at Tavistock today.  Are you sold that he can play 7 straight days yet?

I was tending toward Watney over Van Pelt too, although that'd really be going against the grain of recent form.

I really really want to like McDowell too.  History at this course is hugely in favor of Choi though.  I may come around to McDowell though myself.

Ernie has to be playing better from tee to green than anyone lately.  But, this has been historically a tough place to putt and he's one of, if not the worst I've seen so far this year with the putter.

Ride that fade Poulter train for all it's worth!

Garrigus - see Els.
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/21/2012 4:27:45 PM
Blair - Garrigus is 7th in GIR's and 7th in birdie average, which is a good formula at Bayhill. Obviously he putts well enough to score. He's also 12th in ball striking. That line is way inflated towards Dufner.
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 6:27:14 PM
                 GIR    Birds    Striking    SGP   Bogey Av  3-putt Av
Els              32        95      84           157        72           62    
Garrigus       7         7        2             176       111         186   


I know what the eye test tells me, so I went to see if the stats back it up.  He hits it to kick-in distance a lot, so close that he can just wish it in a few times a round.  

He doesn't putt well enough to score, he hits it well enough that he often still scores in spite of being a shitty putter
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:13:10 PM

Ok, so he's a terrible putter. Then how in the hell is he 7th in Birdie Average and 8th in Par Breaker? And you can't tell me "He hits it to kick-in distance a lot" because he is T109 in Proximity to the Hole at an average of 37' 6".

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:32:12 PM
I don't really understand what they count as an attempt towards that proximity stat.  One thing I did find though is that he's 5th in hitting par 5's in 2.  So, if his third is then counted as a putt, while other guys are laying up and hitting wedges in close from 100 yards, then the layup guys would certainly skew the proximity stat.

I can say for sure that last week in rd1, after 4 holes, his proximity avg was less than 3' and he of course made 4 birdies.  From that point on he played par golf, or maybe even 1 over.  
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:34:38 PM
Case in point, Furyk leads in proximity and is 177 in par 5 in 2.

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:38:33 PM

Something else I noticed about Garrigus...he missed the cut at the Transitions last year and in 2009. He had a chance to win it Sunday which has to be a good sign he's playing well right now.

 

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:44:33 PM
I'm not at all saying he's not a good player, or even that he's not a good bet at that good price.  

All I'm saying is that, much like els, his putting scares the garbage out of me and if it just totally left him and he shot 76-76 hitting 13-14 greens a day, it surely wouldn't shock me.
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:45:39 PM
So basically he hits it far, hit a lot of greens, makes a lot of birdies but the person can't putt to save his life.....
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/21/2012 9:49:31 PM
He also hits a lot of greens and makes a lot of bogeys.

I'm sure it's just a matter of preference.  I prefer to bet on guys that can not be playing their best and still putt their way to a win rather than guys that can be hitting it great and putt their way into a loss.
Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/21/2012 11:04:02 PM
My two cents he is streaky in his demeanor ball striking and putting never known by his long distance putting skills when he is on he hits it a mile and can stoney his irons and has a nice little pop stroke that is good on short putts,Keep him out of the porta potties and he is A OK and on the rise but he aint no Brad Faxon
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/21/2012 11:04:42 PM

1st Round Matchups

Kelly (-115) over Love III (-115)

Byrd (-120) over Poulter (-110) - 2*

Snedeker (-110) over B. Haas (-120)

 

Tournament Matchups

Furyk (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2*

Jobe (-120) over Poulter (-110) - 2*

Points (+110) over Rollins (-140) - 2*

Overton (-115) over Levin (-115) - 2*

 

 

 

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/22/2012 5:49:55 PM
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/22/2012 8:48:33 PM

1st Round Matchups

Kelly (-115) over Love III (-115) 

Byrd (-120) over Poulter (-110) - 2* 

Snedeker (-110) over B. Haas (-120)  PUSH

 

Tournament Matchups

Furyk (-110) over Snedeker (-120) - 2*     1 Up

Jobe (-120) over Poulter (-110) - 2*     4 Down

Points (+110) over Rollins (-140) - 2*     4 Down

Overton (-115) over Levin (-115) - 2*     5 Up

 

 

 

56-48-11 YTD

+7.05 Units

PennStateMan077 PM PennStateMan077
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Posted: 3/22/2012 9:00:56 PM
byrd garbage the bed on the first three holes. and Sneds fell apart on the final 5.

lets get em tomorrow AJ
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/22/2012 9:13:37 PM

2nd Round Matchups

Howell III (-115) over McDowell (-115) - 2*

Byrd (+110) over Poulter (-140) - 2*

Rose (-130) over Phil (Ev) - 2*

Stroud (-110) over Walker (-120) - 2*

 

 

 

 GL

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/22/2012 9:26:30 PM
I really like the Rose bet, I'm gonna get on that one if I ever get lines.
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/23/2012 9:27:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PennStateMan077:

byrd garbage the bed on the first three holes. and Sneds fell apart on the final 5.

lets get em tomorrow AJ

Tell me about it. Hopefully Byrd can turn it around today!

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/23/2012 9:27:57 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by blairaj:

I really like the Rose bet, I'm gonna get on that one if I ever get lines.

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