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Not a chance it's that high.

USA was -27.5 vs Turkey, they won by 31.

Russia was +4.5 vs Aussie, and that match ultimately was not as close as the final scoreline goes (Aussie had 1 x 5 min scoreless spell in the 1st half, and 1 x 4 min scoreless spell in the 2nd half, and Russia ended the game with a meaningless 4-1 run. Aussie could easily have won that game by 10+.

Now for the playoffs, Turkey is +3 vs Russia.

So your -28.5 is greater than what the USA laid for Turkey, and Turkey - through the sequence I just posted above - isn't even rated ahead of a team (Russia) that Aussie dealt to easily (as did France, the other quality team in Group B).

Probably around -10 to -13.5, ceiling -15.

Aus play every game very very hard, up until the last minute..They covered there first 2 games against Brzil and Spain despite having absolutely terrible shooting games..

No way they beat the U.S, but i could see them covering...They play good defense and it only takes a Patty Mills or a Joe Ingles to catch fire...

One thing about the Aussies is that they will play defense.

I think it will get really physical which will be interesting to see how that plays out.

I think the women's semi will be even more so......