Week 11 'Zig-zag' discussion!!!

Forum: CFL
Author: [CFL] Topic: Week 11 'Zig-zag' discussion!!!
BarcsHasBite PM BarcsHasBite
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 3502
Ontario
 
BarcsHasBite
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/6/2012 11:01:06 PM
YTD 11-2 (9-0 run!)

All the games this week are home n' home games as you know, and most bettors like to use the "zig-zag" system in this circumstance.  Basically it means that teams that lost last week, have a better chance winning this week as it's hard to take 2 games in a row from the same team.  Also, overs will tend to go under and visa versa.

Cal/Edm - this game is unusual in that they just played Mon and play again on Fri, only 3 days rest.  As Calgary won the last game, Edmonton has a good chance to bounce back here.  I wouldn't be surprized if Edmonton wins by 1 pt here as well, which is why I lean more to the Calgary +2.5 spread.  Also the short rest between games I think benefits in the offenses so I would lean the over.

Leans: Cal +2.5 and Over.  Cal might make a nice teaser play here.

Ham/Tor - I actually like Hamilton to take this one straight up.  Toronto has been playing much better on the road and poor at home.  Can't really blame them, rogers centre is a crap atmosphere to play.

Leans: Ham ML + Over

Mtl/BC - These 2 teams are clearly the cream of the crop in the league this year.  Somewhat quietly, Montreal has been playing well winning 4 in a row and beating BC last week.  I like BC to get the win in this rematch; however, +5.5 is a lot of points to cover and the ML is too juicy on BC.  I think the under would be a good play in this game as BC's D will tighten at home.

Leans: Mtl +5.5 and Under

Sask/Wpg - Banjo bowl time!  I'm actually quite surprized at the line here.  As another poster asked what I thought the line would be after the blowout last week I guessed Winnipeg at PK or even -1.  This game opened with Sask -3.5 which is quite telling since Sask is hardly world beaters (losing 5 games in a row before the blowout) and clearly Winnipeg can not possibly play worst than last week.  For a team to get a new coach and get blown out 52-0 tells me that either a) this team was totally unprepared or b) were really spiteful about the firing and are not happy with the change.  I think it could be a combo of both, but that does not bode well for the rest of the season.  Obviously, the players still have pride and will play better than last game but I think another loss is coming up here.

Leans Sask -3.5 and Under.

Those are my thoughts and leans for the games.  NO offical plays yet, as I will wait for quarter and half lines to come out to see if there are any advantageous lines to be played.

Feel free to add your thoughts!




CoverLane PM CoverLane
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6903
 
CoverLane
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/8/2012 4:06:38 AM
nice writeups -- zig zag will come into effect somewhere within these last 3 games

It's hard not to play Montreal ML tomorrow...I mean they have a legitimate shot at winning 2 in a row don't they? I'm going to the game and will likely play the under. I want to play the -5.5 but its hard laying points against Calvillo...

I'll probably play BC -5.5
jezhead PM jezhead
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 5063
Ontario
 
jezhead
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/8/2012 12:54:02 PM
Forum: CFL
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.