Posted:
#1
good morning all, I went against my ref trends and paid dearly lat 2 bets posted here. Tonight I'm going to suck it up after reloading my account and bet the trends.
Atl ML +155
under 154.5
If my stats are correct we will get some combination of Forsberg, Dawkins and/or Bonner for this game (possibly Gulbeyan and Inouye too). Blauch, Humphrey, Price and Stevens worked the last Ind/Atl and Minn/Sea games and I don't believe we'll get those refs tonite and that bodes well because they are the biggest OVER refs awarding the most FT per game as seen in the 69 awarded in the last Ind/Atl tilt. Whereas Forsberg, Dawkins and Bonner all favor not only UNDER games but also are 2 of the crew that have worked Atl significant playoff wins in the past both home and on the road. Even if we get Gulbeyan and Inouye they have similar under and favorable Atl trends.
The fact that last game went way over, the possible ref tendancies and I think Harding and McCoughtry will find a way to win all lead me to the two bets above. At this closeout stage in the semis last year Atl beat Con 69-64 (66pts 2nd half) and Ind beat NY 72-62 (58pts 2nd half). So these 2 can slow it down and grind out an ugly half court game when everything is on the line. GL hope to break my 3 game Covers losing streak.
Atl ML +155
under 154.5
If my stats are correct we will get some combination of Forsberg, Dawkins and/or Bonner for this game (possibly Gulbeyan and Inouye too). Blauch, Humphrey, Price and Stevens worked the last Ind/Atl and Minn/Sea games and I don't believe we'll get those refs tonite and that bodes well because they are the biggest OVER refs awarding the most FT per game as seen in the 69 awarded in the last Ind/Atl tilt. Whereas Forsberg, Dawkins and Bonner all favor not only UNDER games but also are 2 of the crew that have worked Atl significant playoff wins in the past both home and on the road. Even if we get Gulbeyan and Inouye they have similar under and favorable Atl trends.
The fact that last game went way over, the possible ref tendancies and I think Harding and McCoughtry will find a way to win all lead me to the two bets above. At this closeout stage in the semis last year Atl beat Con 69-64 (66pts 2nd half) and Ind beat NY 72-62 (58pts 2nd half). So these 2 can slow it down and grind out an ugly half court game when everything is on the line. GL hope to break my 3 game Covers losing streak.
undertaker
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