Posted:
#1
2011: +33.87
Dec 12-Now: +26u
Last Show: +3.64u
Glover vs James Te Huna:
I'm going to keep this simple. Te Huna has a punchers chance in this and that's it. Te Huna hasn't really faced comp the level of Glover with the exception of Gus. When he did he was finished in the first rd. He's letting guys like Jimmo and Beltran take him to the distance. On the other hand we have a guy in Glover who just fought a guy that has better hands and wrestling than Te Huna in Rampage and Glover legit man raped him. I expect Glover to just get this to the ground and sub him/gnp him. The more and more I think about it Glover has a huge advantage here and I am flirting with the idea of making this play upwards of 3u at around -275
Donald Cerrone vs KJ Noons
5 fights ago KJ Noons was 10-2. Since then he has went 1-4 with that victory being over a Cyborg that's been well out of his prime and highly beatable for the last 5 yrs. He may have got the raw end of the deal vs Couture, but the fight should have never really got there, Ryan isn't top 20-25 in this division imo. Donald is tough as nails, will probably be highly motivated coming off a loss. A motivation that I feel will get him to both train really hard and fight really smart.
I feel that while Noons may have a boxing technique adv with the hands, I feel that the overall striking advantage would have to go to Cerrone based on his use of Mauy Thia as well as him having a HUGE advantage if the fight does go to the ground. Cowboy has a sick chin and altho Noons has diverse hand strikes w/good technique I don't really fear the KO here. I expect Cerrone to be able to dictate the pace of the fight with his leg kicks alone. Not to mention this is going to be KJ's first fight in the UFC. Cerrone for at least 2u.
Gray Maynard vs TJ Grant
For whatever reason, I still haven't drank the TJ Grant Koolaid yet. I thought Duhnam beat him and I think Wiman fought like a retard against him. At the same time, I think Gray Maynard is the one man in the division that could really give Benson trouble. Gray is real big and real strong. He's heavy from top pos and has improved striking with power that's always been there. If Gray gets ahold of you 9 times out of 10 you go down and tend to stay down for a minute (hence the term Gray and Pray) The only thing that concerns me about this fight is the fact that Gray has been out for almost a yr (11 mons) that's one of my major warning signs in when to take/fade fighters. Bottom line, I feel like Gray is a few steps better than Dunham and I feel Dunham won that fight. Gray likely for 1u around -200
Dennis Burmudez vs Max Halloway:
Very interested to see what this line is going to be. Max's biggest weakness is being put on his back. Dennis's biggest strength is his wrestling. I just honestly feel like this is a good match up for Dennis. The height/reach isn't all that scary to me as I watched Dennis just dump a much larger fighter in Pablo Garza a while back. Really interested in the line on this one. Hoping its close, Halloway looked gased last fight and fricking Leonard Garcia was able to take him down.
Colton Smith vs Robert Whitaker
I was impressed with Whitaker's heart in his last fight, but other than that, not sure I can say a whole lot. He's striking is legit, but its nothing I would throw a gold medal at. On the other hand you have a blue collar grinder in Smith that is a machine and just goes for td after td. Not to mention when he gets on the ground he actually passes and goes for subs so he doesn't get stood up right away. It just sucks that Colton is from the american version of the TUF show because the line will probably be a little inflated even thought Whitaker is the winner of the smashes show. The units I lay will all depend on the line. At least 1 as long as its nothing redic.
Potential plays on Bowles and Hunt as well.
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I like Grant but Maynard did look very good at the weigh-in as usual. Grant's still bigger though.
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