UFC comes to San Jose California this weekend, as the feature bout will be for the UFC lightweight Championship between Ben Henderson and Gilbert Melendez. 12 total fights scheduled and there are a number of Strikeforce fighters on the card who are more than comfortable fighting in this arena as most of the Strikeforce events were in San Jose. Been going through the card and notice a lot of "value" but not too many plays. Got my eye on a lot of underdogs, but only a few make the cut. Hoping to get that 6th straight 3-unit top play winner! Here we go, 3 official plays;
Nate Diaz -180 vs Josh Thomson +160 - both fighters have trouble with wrestlers beating them out for decisions. I like Nate Diaz and actually thought he would beat Henderson but looking at this matchup I don't like his chances at all. In this matchup Thomson is the better wrestler and that will really help him win this fight. On the feet, Thomson is too fast for Diaz. Nate will have great difficulty landing anything significant and I think Thomson can land shots and/or takedowns; pretty much put on a striking clinic. Thomson is very durable, finished just once about 9 years ago and really is used to taking little or no damage in fights. I see this being pretty much a one-sided fight and have to go the limit on this. Nate looked terrible at weigh ins, pretty obvious it was a tough weight cut for him.
3 units Josh Thomson +160
Benson Henderson -270 vs Gilbert Melendez +230 - seems like everywhere i go on the internet, the majority thinks Henderson has an easy fight. I chalk that up to Henderson looking great in his last fight and Melendez coming off injury and about a 1 year layoff. For me, the line is "off" and i would never entertain the idea of taking Ben. On paper, Henderson has 6 UFC fights, all decision wins. Melendez has only lost twice, both decision losses. So it comes down to who wins the decision? I truly believe that Gilbert will be the aggressor and he won't back down in the majority of exchanges. I think Gil can walk through Henderson's punches. Takedowns? not sure there, but I know Henderson can't hold him down so even if Henderson gets them, he won't do much with them. Both fighters are awesome, but I believe that Melendez has the better striking, and will have enough to go 5 rounds and win the title.
2 units Gilbert Melendez +230
Anthony Njokuani -170 vs Roger Bowling +150 - Njokuani a steady performer but unable to get that big win to put him in contention. For this fight, its a beatable opponent the likes of which Njokuani can handle with ease. Bowling has power but his striking is several levels below Njokuani. This could be a finish with strikes or a unanimous decision win for Anthony. Bowling may get a takedown or 2 but doesn't have the ground skills to put Njokuani in trouble. Even with the small bump up, i see this line being real low and can't pass on what appears to be a mismatch to me.
2 units Anthony Njokuani -170
"opinions" on other fights;
Jordan Mein -300 vs Matt Brown +250 - definitely see some value with the veteran Brown here. Brown is tough as they come and he hits hard and keeps coming. Mein though, is tough to go against, he's big and strong lots of different strikes coming at you and he seems to be putting it all together right now. Even though Mein just fought last month, i can only offer a strong lean to Matt Brown as i still see him "ahead" of Mein at this moment.
Daniel Cormier -450 vs Frank Mir +350 - i was a big fan of Mir from way back, but now i've just been waiting to "fade" the former 2-time champion as i don't think he can be trusted against the newer breed of fighter. Mir looks to be in serious shape for this but i don't think he can get anything done against Cormier. Cormier will stay on his feet and out strike Mir until the end comes. If you thought about maybe Mir being a nice underdog pick, i would recommend you take a chance on someone else.
Chad Mendes -500 vs Darren Elkins +400 - wow, this line immediately shot up and now sits somewhere in the -700's. Not sure what to make of that Elkins is the bigger guy and he's been pretty dominant up until now as a featherweight. Won't say with much confidence that i think Elkins can win this fight, but i wouldn't recommend Mendes as an option either. It will be interesting to see if Mendes continues his ko run or does he take Elkins down and control the fight from top position? Elkins just too slow for me to make a unit play on him, but will give him the upset lean.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
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