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UFC on FOX 7: Henderson vs. Melendez Quick Picks

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Posted: #1
Last event: 5 - 5
YTD: 39 - 30
2012: 111 - 56

 Benson Henderson   vs.   Gilbert Melendez  
Main Event | Title Fight | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I like Ben Henderson in this match up. Gilbert is tough and has heart for days but I think Ben is quite a bit better in a lot of the key areas. Gilbert probably has more power standing and is maybe a bit more technical with his hands but I'd give the edge in Wrestling, kick-boxing, Cardio, Chin, foot work / head movement and submissions to Henderson. Neither man has been finished by strikes and I really don't see either man being submitted unless Gilbert makes a mistake and gets caught in a guillotine or something so the best bet is probably that this baby goes the full 5 rounds, I'm guessing that prop will be a bit juiced though. I scored the the last Thomson - Melendez fight as a UD for Thomson (Gilbert won via split) and I'd take Henderson over Thomson all day every day. Just a little MMA math for all ya'llz.

Prediction - Ben Henderson via UD.

 
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Posted: #2
Daniel Cormier   vs.   Frank Mir 
Co-Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Same old story for Mir, Medicore (at best) stand up, best Jiu-Jitsu in the Heavyweight division and lacks the offensive wrestling to implement his submissions. I love me some Mir but Cormier takes this easily unless Mir lands something that drops Cormier, which I don't see happening.

Prediction - Cormier via TKO in the 3rd.
 
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Nate Diaz   vs.   Josh Thomson  
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

 If you look past a KO/TKO loss to a primed and bad-behind 2004 Yves Edwards, Thomson only loses to fighters who can either match his wrestling prowress or are just plain better at it than him. Thomson is 19 - 5 with 4 set backs coming via Decision and only one via stoppage as mentioned above.  Clay Guida beat him via Decision in 2006, loss to Melendez via Decision in 2009. Kawajiri took Thomson down repeatably in route to a Unanimous Decision in 2010 in Japan at the annual New Years show and his last was a split decision loss to Melendez (which I scored for Thomson).

Prediction - Thomson mixes his slick striking with take-downs to frustrate Diaz and take a some what safe UD.
 
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Posted: #4
I agree with all 3 of these for the most part... altho I am hoping Frank finds a way to win (as he is one of my fav if not my fav hw).  I think DC is one of the worst possible match ups for him, however I am not going to lay the juice on DC at this time so... I hope frank finds a way to pull it out.

One thing that is starting to worry me a little is how much love J. Thompson is getting, I mean...  I guess if ppl that know mma are on him and not just the common fan that knows very little about strikeforce or nate's history with wrestlers... but yeah... hopefully he gets the takedowns going early and often.
 
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Posted: #5
hate laying this kind of juice, especially on heavyweights (one shot will do it) but cormier has an iron dome. no chance in hell frank gets him to the ground so cormier's going to batter frank.

we've seen this before. frank is going to be like "oh i'm okay" and then be out cold 2 mins later.

-415, i'll take it.
 
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Posted: #6
Dunno why everyone is on the main card fights for $, as the easier money is on the undercard.  Masvidal at -165 is a gift, parlay Benavidez and Dilli $$$.  Not touching cormier, diaz or henderson fights.
 
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Jordan Mein   vs.   Matt Brown  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

I think Mein will hold his own in the clinch and against the fence, Matt Brown has never really been a middle of the cage power double kind of guy, he likes to tie up his opponents and back them into the cage where he can work his trips, throws and double legs against the fence. Brown has excellent control and positioning in the clinch, this enables him to wear down his opponents and eventually get a TKO finish or take the Decision.  While Brown is a ton of fun to watch and is on quite the resurgence I don't think he has fought someone on Mein's level in quite some time. I'd take Mein over Mike Swick, Luis Ramos, Chris Cope and John Howard. Stephen Thompson is a different beast, that would be quite the stand up battle! If you go farther down the list Brown's biggest name win is Probably Douglas Lima and this was back in 2007.  Brown has never been stopped with strikes and I don't think Mein will get the Sub so a decision is a safe bet because even with 3 KO/TKO wins in his last four fights I have trouble seeing Brown get the finish on Mein, who himself has only been stopped by strikes once in his career, back in 2007, I guess a submission win for Brown is a possibility, Mein has been Choked out 3 times, but that was when he was like 16 or some garbage back in 2006 and it was in his first 6 fights.

Prediction - If Mein can stay off his back he takes a pretty safe decision.
 
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Posted: #8
Oh right Rory MacDonald was the first person to choke out Mein.

I hate betting against Brown, he always seems to find a way to win when I do. I might stay away from this fight, but that is who I think will win.
 
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Posted: #9
Chad Mendes   vs.   Darren Elkins  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Weird feeling about this fight. Even though Elkins striking looked good in his last fight his wrestling looked a bit of, Carvalho was stuffing Elkins easily before he got dropped along the fence.  Elkins has the size and wrestling to give Mendes fits. This is a tough match up to cap, usually when I get this upset feeling i'm wrong (assuming Mendes is the favorite) soooooo.....

Prediction - Mendes via TKO in the 2nd.

 
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Francis Carmont   vs.   Lorenz Larkin  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Carmont is way bigger and Larkin had trouble with Nick Rossborough's (who!?) size in their strike force fight.

Prediction - Carmont out wrestles Larkin and latches on sub late in the 2nd.
 
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Myles Jury   vs.   Ramsey Nijem  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Jury is tough and I think we'll get to see how he is off his back.

Prediction - Nijem UD via wrestling.
 
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Joseph Benavidez   vs.   Darren Uyenoyama  
Preliminary Card | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

A Darren Uyenoyama submission out of a scramble is a real possibility, the more likely outcome is Benavidez owns the stand up and holds his own in any scrambles.

Prediction - Benavidez via submission in the 3rd, guillotine.
 
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Jorge Masvidal   vs.   Tim Means  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I am really high on Means, problem is I'm just as high on Masvidal and I think this is a bad match up for Means. I'm hesitant to bet this fight as Means throws hard straight punches but I like Masvidal's chin to hold up while he takes over with a more diverse over all game.

Prediction - Masvidal via split decision.
 
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T.J. Dillashaw   vs.   Hugo Viana  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Man these Alpha Male fighters are good.

Prediction - T.J. via smothering decision.
 
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Posted: #15
Roger Bowling   vs.   Anthony Njokuani  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

This is Njokuani all day. Bowling's first fight in the UFC and first fight at 155 and you pull Njokuani? Have fun with that. Danny Castillo was barely able to take Anthony down in their fight and Bowling is an inch shorter and is half the wrestler Castillo is.

Njokuani - 6'0"    75.5" reach
Bowling - 5'8        68" reach    


Prediction - Njokuani via KO in the 1st.
 
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Clifford Starks   vs.   Yoel Romero  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

This is just LEAN as I don't know much about Romero other than being part of the Cuban? national wrestling team. Starks also wrestled and seems to have the overall better game, so I am LEANING Starks but won't count this on my record or be betting it.

Good luck this weekend everyone. 
 
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Posted: #17
I think I just picked favorites from top to bottom, oh well!
 
 
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Posted: #18
Predictions went 9 - 2 on the night

YTD: 48 - 32
2012: 111 - 56
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