For me this fight is simple. Bart has never really looked good to me. Cole has had some nagging injuries in the recent past, he didn't look too bad against Nam. I feel he is a better striker than Bart and I really don't see Bart having an adv on the ground, hell I am actually having trouble seeing him get the fight to the ground. So when I see that I am getting +money on someone that I don't think should be a dog, I have to go with the value there.
Justin Lawrence vs Pineda
I think Lawrence is very talented, he had a slippage vs Halloway, if that doesn't happen I think he would be right around -180 to -200 here. So once again I have to go with the value. Guy is really well rounded and has KO power in every limb. That combined with the fact that I am just not impressed with Daniel made this a fairly easy play for me to make. I just feel the line is a little fishy, maybe the odds makers know something I don't but I wanted to make this more than a 1.5u play.
Bubba vs Gilbert Smith
Bubba is a real big 185 with a gas tank. I don't see Gilbert just being able to lay on him for 15 minutes. Gilbert's body type is also one that gases, if he wasn't able to take the englishman down with ease, don't see how he does it to Bubba.
King Casey vs Josh Samman
I just don't think anyone coming out of the tough house should really be -500. Not to mention I just watched a kid with less than half of Kevin's bjj exp choke Josh out. That being said, just taking the + money here, wouldn't even hate the fight if it was a friggin pick'em to b honest. Not saying I would be all over it just saying I wouldn't hate it. All we need is for Casey to get it to the ground 2x in 3 rds, which I def think is possible. Not to mention if it does get there, there is the poss of a finish.
Meisha vs Cat
Once again, there must be something the odds makers know and are just snickering at me. Don't see how Cat is the favorite here. I have seen some of her fights and really haven't been all that impressed. Kind of thought Tate was going to be -180 here, was very surprised to see her at EV.
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Cole Miller vs Bartimus
For me this fight is simple. Bart has never really looked good to me. Cole has had some nagging injuries in the recent past, he didn't look too bad against Nam. I feel he is a better striker than Bart and I really don't see Bart having an adv on the ground, hell I am actually having trouble seeing him get the fight to the ground. So when I see that I am getting +money on someone that I don't think should be a dog, I have to go with the value there.
Justin Lawrence vs Pineda
I think Lawrence is very talented, he had a slippage vs Halloway, if that doesn't happen I think he would be right around -180 to -200 here. So once again I have to go with the value. Guy is really well rounded and has KO power in every limb. That combined with the fact that I am just not impressed with Daniel made this a fairly easy play for me to make. I just feel the line is a little fishy, maybe the odds makers know something I don't but I wanted to make this more than a 1.5u play.
Bubba vs Gilbert Smith
Bubba is a real big 185 with a gas tank. I don't see Gilbert just being able to lay on him for 15 minutes. Gilbert's body type is also one that gases, if he wasn't able to take the englishman down with ease, don't see how he does it to Bubba.
King Casey vs Josh Samman
I just don't think anyone coming out of the tough house should really be -500. Not to mention I just watched a kid with less than half of Kevin's bjj exp choke Josh out. That being said, just taking the + money here, wouldn't even hate the fight if it was a friggin pick'em to b honest. Not saying I would be all over it just saying I wouldn't hate it. All we need is for Casey to get it to the ground 2x in 3 rds, which I def think is possible. Not to mention if it does get there, there is the poss of a finish.
Meisha vs Cat
Once again, there must be something the odds makers know and are just snickering at me. Don't see how Cat is the favorite here. I have seen some of her fights and really haven't been all that impressed. Kind of thought Tate was going to be -180 here, was very surprised to see her at EV.
Also flirting with the idea of making the Justin Lawrence play bigger. I am going to look into it a bit more, but I just don't see how he isn't the favorite here. The kid is dangerous.
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Also flirting with the idea of making the Justin Lawrence play bigger. I am going to look into it a bit more, but I just don't see how he isn't the favorite here. The kid is dangerous.
up a whopping .45u on the day. Glad I didn't make Lawrence a bigger play, instead after seeing that Luke was training w/Chael I figured I would just put a play in on him, that way if Lawrence didn't keep the distnace well it wouldn't come back to f*ck me... lol
idk if Lawrence could have went in w/a worse gameplan, i guess he just htought if pineda took him down he was going to be able to pop right back up so he didn't have to maintain distance and get the jab off early. that kid came out with so much to gain and after his last two fights he is probably fighting for his job the next time out... hell they might cut him let him get some more pro mma exp b4 they let him back in, which is crazy cuz the kid has more professional fights (not just mma) then most fighters.
almost got real lucky in the casey/samman fight... best part abotu the fight would have to b my 2 dudes clowning him on the skype chat about being a black belt, getting one of the most dangerous chokes sunk in that early in a fight when both fighters are damn near bone dry and not being able to finish it... would have loved the 2+ U turn around there
Got aggrivated at the poker table and almost followed thru with the f*ck it 5u Uriah Faber play. But then was just off it and didn't feel like risking such an absurd amount. Complete non-sweater, as predicted though... kinda sucks for Uriah that he is number 2 guy in 2 weight classes.
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up a whopping .45u on the day. Glad I didn't make Lawrence a bigger play, instead after seeing that Luke was training w/Chael I figured I would just put a play in on him, that way if Lawrence didn't keep the distnace well it wouldn't come back to f*ck me... lol
idk if Lawrence could have went in w/a worse gameplan, i guess he just htought if pineda took him down he was going to be able to pop right back up so he didn't have to maintain distance and get the jab off early. that kid came out with so much to gain and after his last two fights he is probably fighting for his job the next time out... hell they might cut him let him get some more pro mma exp b4 they let him back in, which is crazy cuz the kid has more professional fights (not just mma) then most fighters.
almost got real lucky in the casey/samman fight... best part abotu the fight would have to b my 2 dudes clowning him on the skype chat about being a black belt, getting one of the most dangerous chokes sunk in that early in a fight when both fighters are damn near bone dry and not being able to finish it... would have loved the 2+ U turn around there
Got aggrivated at the poker table and almost followed thru with the f*ck it 5u Uriah Faber play. But then was just off it and didn't feel like risking such an absurd amount. Complete non-sweater, as predicted though... kinda sucks for Uriah that he is number 2 guy in 2 weight classes.
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