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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera Predictions
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#1
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:02:01 PM

Ulysses Gomez   vs.   John Moraga  
Preliminary Card | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

Gomez

I absolutely love fights @ 125. Gomez is a Mexican American fighting out of the gym he helped found with Marc Laimon: Cobra Kai in Las Vegas. He was born in Los Angeles, California to two immigrants. He is the brother of footballer and U.S. national team representative Herculez Gomez. Before his fights, Ulysses has worn the shirt of the club that his brother plays for. This has included the Kansas City Wizards and Puebla FC. Gomez has spent time at both Flyweight and Bantamweight but is more suited for the former with is skinny 5’5 frame. Ulyssess wrestled in high school and is a beast on the mat; he is only 25 and already won quite a few grappling completions and awards, like being ranked #1 in his weight class at grapplers quest. Out of his 9 wins, 7 are submissions. Not much footage out there on Ulysses. In second last fight he was controlled by a 4 - 2 Drew Bittner for the whole first round, Drew shot in for a lazy take-down at the start of the second and got choked out. In the other fight I watched a 5’2 Thai fighter named Rambaa Somdet used nice leg kicks, good take-down defense and dropped Gomez a few times to take a UD. To be fair this was in 2008 and Rambaa is 9 – 2 - 0 overall.

 

Moraga

Wow not a lot out there on this guy. He is 5’6 and fights out of Arizona Combat Sports. He is 10 – 1 – 0 overall with his lone loss to John Dodson in 2010. I don’t recognize most of the other names so it’s seems like he is mostly a regional circuit kind of dude. I looked up a few of his fights on YouTube, from what I could gather he has a good gas tank, above average fight IQ (staying calm and doing exactly what his corner says when he is on top in side control) lighting quick hands and legit knockout power, his ground and pound in the Matthew Garcia fight is straight up lethal, some of the best I’ve seen at the lower weight classes. That being said I also noticed a lack of head movement, and he tends to keep his hands down while throwing lopping (albeit super-fast) haymakers to close the distance, he also needs to utilize better angles when moving in and out. His wrestling and submission defense looked decent from what I could see, I wish there was some more background info out there on this dude, I’d like to know if he has any formal martial arts training. He was originally scheduled to come in and Fight Ian McCall so the UFC must be at least a little bit high on him.

 

Prediction – John Moraga by sprawl and brawl KO in the second. I think this is a bad match up for Gomez, I don’t think he will be able to take John down as Moraga is fast and light on his feet and I believe he will be the stronger man in the cage come Saturday.

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#2
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:18:34 PM

Phil De Fries   vs.   Oli Thompson  
Preliminary Card | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Thompson (6’1) 9 -3 – 0

I was not a fan of the UFC signing of Oli Thompson, who at the time sported a 9 – 2 record and is now 9 – 3 – 0 overall after getting TKO’d by Shawn Jordan in his UFC debut.  He is a former Britain’s Strongest Man placing, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd. His “biggest” win as far as I can tell via Tapology is a 10 – 7 “big” Ben Smith who fights at Light Heavyweight : /…… Let’s just say I’m not sold on this guy being even close to UFC material.

 

 

Phil De Fries (6’5) 8 – 1 – 0

Phil is a relatively young heavyweight fighting out of Alliance Jiu-Jitsu in Sunderland, England.  He is 8 – 1 with 7 submissions. He won his UFC debut over fellow Brit Rob Broughton via UD. It was a sloppy fight but Phil showed good control from the top and a decent gas tank for a heavyweight.  He is a 3 stripe purple belt out of one of the best BJJ schools in the world.  Phil would then run in to the buzz Saw that is Stipe Miocic who would knock De Fries out in :43 seconds of round 1.

 

Prediction – De Fries by submission round 1. Phil should get the clinch, push Thompson against the cage and work some sort of trip or body lock takedown.

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#3
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:07:21 PM

Josh Grispi   vs.   Rani Yahya  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Yahya (5’6) 68” reach

Rani is a 2nd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, sporting a 16 – 7 overall record. Don’t let his average record throw you off, he has been fighting the top dogs in the lower weight classes since day 1. He holds notable victories over Taiyo Nakahara, Mark Hominick, Yoshiro Maeda, Eddie Windeland and Mike Brown. His loses include Fredson Paixao (UD) Gesias Cavalcante (sub), Chase Beebe (D), Kid Yamamoto (TKO), Joseph Benavidez(TKO), Takeya MIzugaki (UD) and Chad Mendes (UD).  Rani is a highly decorated grappler. After picking up Judo at a young age, Yahya was introduced to BJJ and never looked back. He won the juvenile division of the Mundials at age fourteen as a blue belt. In 2001 he repeated this feat as a purple belt. He would finish with a silver medal at the 2005 ADCC tournament and straight up won the thing in 2007. Rani’s striking is rudimentary at best, to his credit he has been working diligently on it as a means to set up his take downs but he still looks a bit stiff in the cage. Better foot work, extension on his punches and stringing together combos are some things he really needs to work on. His head movement and fight IQ are good and his wrestling defense is sound as his Judo background makes him hard to take-down, however I’m not sure who would want to take down a 2nd degree black belt with 14 wins via submission?  

Grispi (5’11) 74” reach

Grispi is a large featherweight, clocking in at 5’11 with a 74’’ reach, he is also quite muscular, usually the being the larger and stronger man at 145lbs. He sports a record of 14 – 3 with 7 win by way of catch 6 knockouts and 1 decision. His record is devoid of any real “names” until Josh makes his WEC debut against Mark Hominick which he wins by rear naked choke in the first. He would then go on to TKO Micha Miller and submit bot Jens Pulver and LC Davis before running into Dustin Poirier and George Roop. These last two fights have left Josh on losing streak that he is looking to right on Saturday.  Grispi will have the advantage standing as he throws better combinations, utilizes some decent kicks and his boxing is average. His striking defense is porous and he tends to counter strike sometimes which adds up to him getting tagged on the feet, however I don’t think Yahya will be landing any big shots.  Grispi cannot match Yahya on the ground as Rani is the best BJJ purist in the division but this is not BJJ, Grispi may have the correct combination of submission defense, size and wrestling to lay on Yahya for 3 rounds.

 

Prediction – Yahya submission round three. Logic says to go with the larger man with good ground skills and average striking via the smaller submission ace who relies on chaining together take-downs to get the fight to the floor. This fight will probably be a clinch war to see who can end up on top and I’m going with the guy I like more =) probably won’t be betting on this fight, at least not much.

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#4
Posted: 7/31/2012 4:57:28 PM

Michihiro Omigawa   vs.   Manvel Gamburyan  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Both men are high level Judokas with Omigawa being a 3rd Dan Black Belt and Manvel being the cousin of Judo legend Karo Parisyan and trained by Gokor Chivichyan. To me this is a pick em fight. I am leaning Gamburyan by KO or decision but I love me some Omigawa so I hate picking against him. I think this will be contested on the feet where Manny should have a slight advantage.

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#5
Posted: 7/31/2012 4:57:29 PM

Michihiro Omigawa   vs.   Manvel Gamburyan  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Both men are high level Judokas with Omigawa being a 3rd Dan Black Belt and Manvel being the cousin of Judo legend Karo Parisyan and trained by Gokor Chivichyan. To me this is a pick em fight. I am leaning Gamburyan by KO or decision but I love me some Omigawa so I hate picking against him. I think this will be contested on the feet where Manny should have a slight advantage.

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#6
Posted: 7/31/2012 5:17:51 PM
Whays is your prediction record? You write a mini book for each card whats your overall been like this year? 
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#7
Posted: 7/31/2012 5:26:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UcantCmeee:

Whays is your prediction record? You write a mini book for each card whats your overall been like this year? 


Why don't you shut the darn up and go back to your attention person thread?
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#8
Posted: 8/1/2012 9:54:25 AM
Will update record before I finish my posts, before the last UFC I believe I was 22 - 7 but I failed pretty hard on the last one so when I get a chance I'll count em up for you ok Mr.Xpert? =) 
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#9
Posted: 8/1/2012 9:55:46 AM
Prediction's don't always reflect my actual bets, this is more to bring some information to the community and for fun. I don't really record my plays or predictions, my bankroll does the recording for me. 
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#10
Posted: 8/2/2012 11:42:49 AM
Missed the call on 7 fights on the last UFC card so I'm sitting at 26 - 14
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#11
Posted: 8/2/2012 4:34:45 PM

Phil Davis   vs.   Wagner Prado  
Preliminary Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Prado

Standing 6’4 Prado is a hulking light heavyweight (skeptical as he does not look 6’4 in some videos, well see when he faces off with the 6’2 Davis) he picked up Muay Thai at age 19 and made his pro debut in 2009. He is only 25 years old and is only a blue belt in BJJ but you have to think training at the renowned team nogueira / blackhouse camp will shore up his decencies quickly.  Wagners hands are fast and heavy and he keeps his hands up high when throwing his wide hooks. His leg kicks are downright devastating; check out this clip where he lands an inside leg kick directly to the Femoral Artery of this dude that drops the guy like he was shot in the liver with a hunting rifle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOLHHHp0xCQ

 

 That all being said, there is no tape on anyone attempting anything that resembles a take-down on him so I have absolutely no idea what his clinch / wrestling is like. His opponents down in Brazil almost all have losing records, pretty bad ones too, so it’s hard to measure how good this kid actually is. On paper he looks like a solid addition to the LHW division.

 

Davis

Davis is one of the better college wrestlers to enter the sport at the light heavy weight division.  He won the junior (197 lbs) NCAA championship in 2008 and placed 5th in 2007. He finished college at Penn State with a record of 116 - 15 and was a four time NCAA division 1 All-American. Davis is a blue belt in BJJ under Lody Irvin but his “in cage” MMA jits might be on a higher level with submission wins over Tim Beotsch (modified Kimura) and Alexander Gustafsson (anaconda choke). Davis was having a rough go against LIL Nog in his second to last fight, nog stuffed a number of double leg take-downs along the fence that had Phil looking frustrated, I believe it was in the second when Phil switched from a power double against the fence to a high crotch single which lil nog apparently had never seen before, Davis hit this same take-down multiple times to take a UD. Davis also has a UD win over Brian Stann in 2010 but Stann has terrible take-down defense. In his last fight Davis was outclassed by Rashad over 5 rounds.

 

Prediction – Like I’ve said before I don’t like betting on fighters I’ve never seen fight live in the big show, whether it be UFC, strike force, bellator etc. So I will probably stay away from this betting wise, Davis is the more logical choice as he needs to and probably will get this fight to the ground but imma go with Wagner Prado via KO for shits.

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#12
Posted: 8/2/2012 4:39:49 PM
Deficiencies* durp can't spell!
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#13
Posted: 8/2/2012 7:54:33 PM
Yo Sharpstick

waiting until after weigh ins to post plays? me wanna read! 
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#14
Posted: 8/2/2012 8:00:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crowat:

Yo Sharpstick

waiting until after weigh ins to post plays? me wanna read! 


Yes.  Looking hard at Moraga, Grispi, Miller, and Thompson.  
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#15
Posted: 8/2/2012 8:13:15 PM
Interesting, you think Thompson will keep it standing or end up on top hey? I have been thinking about that fight a lot after making my prediction. He is a pretty hefty dude. 
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#16
Posted: 8/2/2012 8:27:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crowat:

Interesting, you think Thompson will keep it standing or end up on top hey? I have been thinking about that fight a lot after making my prediction. He is a pretty hefty dude. 


I think he could end up on top and win the first two rounds while gassed in the 3rd trying to hold onto a decision, or I think he could plant De Fries flat on his face early in the fight with his hands.

De Fries needs to tire him out, and that will definitely happen if Thompson doesn't KO him early.  It's just a matter of if he's done enough at that point to win 2 rounds.  This fight is one that if I do decide to play, it will only be 1 unit.  

De Fries is certainly able to win by submission, or just lose the first round and come back and beat up a gassed Thompson and take the last two rounds as well.

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#17
Posted: 8/2/2012 9:22:30 PM
interesting insight 
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#18
Posted: 8/3/2012 12:30:06 PM

Nam Phan   vs.   Cole Miller  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

 

Phan (5’6) 17 - 10

Phan is a Vietnamese-American that has been studying martial arts since a very young age. He started Taekwondo at age 4, by 16 earned a 2nd degree black belt in a Vietnamese martial art called Quyen Dao. Phan would begin training Jiu-jitsu in 2000 and has achieved the rank of black belt. Nam also holds a black belt in Karate and has professional boxing record of 3 – 1. Phan’s record of 17 – 10 is pedestrian at best, however most of his loses are to elite competition at the lower weight classes. Rob McCullough, Josh Thomson, Gesias Cavalcante, Billy Evangelista, Michihiro Omigawa, Isaac DeJesus, Leonard Garcia (ya right Phan won that fight), Mike Brown and the wrecking ball that is Jimy Hettes.

 

 

Miller (6’1) 18 – 6

This will be Millers 2nd go at 145lbs. He is a massive featherweight, standing 6’1 with a 73” reach. His nickname “Magrinho” means “skinny” in Portuguese. Miller is a beast on the mat with 13 of his 18 wins coming by way of submission.  He holds a brown belt while in a gi but operates at a black belt level in the cage. His biggest wins in the UFC are over Ross Pearson and T.J. O’Brien, while he holds notable defeats to Matt Wiman (UD) Efrain Escudero (TKO), Jeremy Stephens (KO) and Steven Siler (UD). Siler was able to use rock solid take down defense to keep the fight standing where Miller was at an obvious disadvantage.  While Millers ground game is exceptional his striking is below average and his offensive wrestling is almost non-existent. Miller gets hit too easily and keeps his hands low when throwing his combinations, things Siler took advantage of to beat Cole up on the feet in his last fight.

 

Prediction – Nam Phan by UD. I think Cole has a rough cut and gets frustrated again when he is unable to take Phan down. Phan will need to navigate through the long punches of Miller to get inside with his head-body one two bread and butter combo.

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#19
Posted: 8/3/2012 5:04:12 PM

Mike Swick   vs.   DaMarques Johnson  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

The first fight on the main card sees two UFC vets with a surprisingly similar set of attributes.  Both men are 6’1, 77” reach for Swick and 75” for Johnson, both men have fast, heavy hands with the edge in technique going to Swick and Johnson for power.  Both men have some decent wins in the UFC but have fallen short when faced with a step up in competition. Swick with loses to Paulo Thiago (choke), Dan Hardy (UD), Yushin Okami (UD), and Johnson faltering to likes of John Maguire (armlock), Amir Sadollah (elbows), Matt Riddle (TKO) and James Wilks (RNC).  Swick’s resume is a bit more polished with wins over Ben Saunders, Marcus Davis, Josh Burkman and David Loiseau. Johnson holds notable victories over Michael Guymon, Brad Blackburn and Edgar Garcia, all of whom are not employed by Zuffa any longer. So maybe notable is not the right word -_-  Swick will have the edge standing and he has legit knockout power, faster hands and better technique and DaMarques will have the edge on the ground, Johnson’s ground game is for real, he is a threat from top control and off his back, his triangle is particularly good. I would also give the edge in the wrestling department to Swick as Johnson’s take down defense has been below average his whole UFC career.  The X factor that is going to make me stay away from this fight betting wise is Swick’s layoff, normally this is Swick’s fight to loose but he has been out for over two years with knee and chest issues. The silver lining to this is that for a lot of this time Swick has been able to train and he says he is in the best shape of his life. I’m going to have to go with Swick by TKO in the third even with his long layoff in mind. I don’t like picking against Johnson because I really like him as a fighter, I’m not sure why I guess it’s a man crush. That being said I realize he is border line UFC talent.

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#20
Posted: 8/4/2012 3:05:23 PM
Speed round!
Joe Lauzon   vs.   Jamie Varner   
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg) 

I like Varner in this fight even coming in on short notice. I don't think Joe will take him down and even though Varner is 2" shorter he has a 2" reach advantage. Sprawl and brawl UD win for Varner. 

Lyoto Machida   vs.   Ryan Bader   
Co-Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg) 

I like Machida to stay upright for the majority of the fight where he should have a clear advanatge, yes Bader has some power in his right hand but good luck landing that the dragon. Machida TKO round 3. 

Mauricio Rua   vs.   Brandon Vera   
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg) 

Mauricio is my favorite fighter, i've never picked against him and I never will. Also I don't think Vera has any way to win this fight, hail mary high kick maybe? Shogun via TKO, ground strikes from Vera's guard pride style. 

Good luck to all ya'llz tonight. Get that 
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#21
Posted: 8/4/2012 7:57:48 PM
5 for 5 on the predictions tonight, not too shabby, hope everyone is having a good night so far.
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#22
Posted: 8/4/2012 8:05:13 PM

"Out of the four guys Lyoto was the toughest puzzle, brandon had the biggest mouth, bader felt the strongest, shogun lasted the longest. lol"

 

WHO YA GOT TONIGHT

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#23
Posted: 8/4/2012 8:18:17 PM
Im taking vera for the upset cause rua has never fought in the heavyweight division before and vera has.  GL
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#24
Posted: 8/4/2012 8:29:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sunset:

Im taking vera for the upset cause rua has never fought in the heavyweight division before and vera has.  GL

GL as well, but this is possibly some of the worst logic I've read here. 
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#25
Posted: 8/4/2012 8:30:14 PM
6 for 6, what a come back. 
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