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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 149 Predictions
crowat send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:49:43 PM

Mitch Clarke   vs.   Anton Kuivanen  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Clarke

There really is not much information out there on Clarke. He is Canadian, stands 5’10, fought a bit @ 170 earlier in his career. Got clowned by Jon Cholish is his first fight in the UFC, he tried to push the pace early, gassed and was outclassed until he was TKO’d, this could have been in part to “octagon jitters” but he did not look good. Oh and he is a purple belt in BJJ under some dude named Rodrigo Munduruca, a world no-gi grappling champion in the Masters Ultra-Heavy division.

 

Kuivanen

Kuivanen clocked in at the number eight lightweight prospect in the 2012 edition of the Bloody Elbow scouting report. He lost his first fight in the octagon to number four ranked lightweight prospect – Justin Salas, Justin used his D1 wrestling to continually ground Kuivanen for a UD. Here is a quick break-down of Anton’s skills and flaws.

Positives – Athletic, Strong, Explosive, diverse striking: punch combos, variety of kicks, strong teep and flying knee.  Solid ground game: moves really well from the bottom even though he rarely ends up there, good submission defense, really hard to submit. Can take a shot and keep fighting.

Concerns – Cardio, like most explosive guys Kuivanen also has had problems with cardio in some of his fights. Second time fighting abroad since 2008: time difference, long flights.

 

Prediction – Anton Kuivanen via submission in the 2nd.  Anton lost his first fight in the UFC due to powerhouse D1 College wrestling; this is something Clarke does not possess. I wonder if we even know what wrestling is up here in Canada.

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#2
Posted: 7/16/2012 5:23:11 PM

Daniel Pineda   vs.   Antonio Carvalho  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Carvalho (5'8) 13 - 5 - 0

Canadian born fighter fighting out of Oshawa, Ontario. He is 13 – 5 overall with 6 wins via knockout, 3 via submission and 4 decisions.  He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu a green belt in Judo and a black belt in Shotokan Karate.  He has fought all over the world in promotions like: Shooto, TKO Major League, MFC, Iron heart Crown, Cage Force and Warrior-1 MMA. He holds notable victories over Takeshi “lion” Inoue via decision and Hatsu Hioki. He lost his first fight in the UFC to Felipe Arantes via decision, he looked good in the first and even had Arantes mounted but faded latter on and was unable to get the ground to the fight.

Pineda (5'7) 17 - 8

Pineda started off his UFC career with back to back submissions over Pat Schilling and Mackens Semerzier. He would then go on to give Mike Brown all he could handle for three rounds eventually dropping a UD in what would be Brown’s final fight.  Pineda is a finisher, of his 17 wins 11 are TKOs and 6 submissions with 11 1st round stoppages. Kid is hell on wheels.  Pineda is billed as a wrestle boxer but has 11 submissions under his belt; he is a triple threat in the cage, utilizing striking, take-downs and a sneaky BJJ game.

Prediction – Pineda by via triangle choke in the 2nd. Pineda has looked good in all three of his UFC fights; Carvalho looked good in only one round of his first UFC fight. I’ll go with the Pit.

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#3
Posted: 7/16/2012 5:46:46 PM
oops I have my numbers mixed up with Pineda. He has 11 submissions and 6 knockouts for 17 finishes.
























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#4
Posted: 7/18/2012 2:15:57 PM

Bryan Caraway   vs.   Mitch Gagnon   Confirmed
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Gagnon (5’5) 8 – 1 – 0

Sticking with the Canadian theme on the card, Gagnon is a Canadian bantamweight who came in at the #10 spot on the 2011 Bloody Elbow Featherweight Scouting report. Gagnon is a strong wrestler who also possesses a highly effective ground game as his record of 7 submissions shows. 

 

Caraway (5’9) 16 – 5 – 0

Caraway competed on TUF 14 where he was able to submit Marcus Brimage but was knocked out but season winner Diego Brandao. In his next fight Caraway submitted Dustin Neace at the TUF 14 finale. Caraway trains out of team Alpha Male. Bryan compliments his Division II wrestling with a high level ground game, of his 16 wins, 14 have come via submission with 9 of those being rear naked chokes.

 

Prediction – Bryan Caraway via UD. This fight will probably be closer than what the lines will show, I expect Caraway to be a heavy favorite do to the size difference, quality of camp and past level of competition.  Gagnon is a hard nosed grinder who won’t give up but he is also making his octagon debut so it’s hard to pick him. I think after losing a UD to Caraway the 5’5 Gagnon will probably attempt to make 125.

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#5
Posted: 7/18/2012 2:16:52 PM
Oh right, Caraway also dates team alpha male fighter Mesha Tate...
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#6
Posted: 7/18/2012 8:09:29 PM

Roland Delorme   vs.   Francisco Rivera   Confirmed
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Delorme (5’9) 8 – 1 – 0

Delorme is 2 – 0 in the UFC with wins over Josh Ferguson and a come from behind submission win over the very tough Nick Denis.  Delorme has serviceable boxing but it is more of a means to set up his crafty clinch techniques, being a black belt in Judo Delorme is beast in the clinch and preys on the slightest mistake to drag his opponent to the ground, complementing his stellar clinch Delorme also possess a brown belt in BJJ. Ronald has finished all of his 8 fights with 6 submissions and 2 TKOs.

 

Rivera (5’8) 8 – 2 – 0

Rivera’s first fight in the UFC family was against top dog Erik Koch in the WEC, Rivera lost that fight via head kick in the first round. Rivera would control Reuben Duran for the first round of their fight, but was choked out in the 3rd, to round out his first two fights in the UFC. Rivera was subsequently cut but scored two wins outside the UFC to return and face Alex Soto in his last fight, Cisco was able to outland Alex over three rounds to take a UD. Rivera has some sick striking and decent take-down defense, he pops off 2, 3 and 4 punch combinations with blinding speed. That being said, so far I file him under the “one dimensional” section of fighters, he seems content to stand and bang and prefers to use his wrestling defensively. We have seen very little of his ground game thus far leaving a few question marks.

 

Prediction – Delorme via guillotine in the 3rd. I think Delorme will weather the early storm and come back to get the submission similar to the Nick Denis fight.

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#7
Posted: 7/18/2012 9:06:55 PM
Ryan Jimmo   vs.   Anthony Perosh   
Preliminary Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Whipton broke this fight down well in his thread check him out. Jimmo is a karate based fighter, he throws decent to good kicks and has some pretty nifty foot work, however his boxing, striking defense and head movement are below average IMO. Like Whipton said he is pretty hyped as he is on a 16 fight win steak or some garbage, I believe his only loss is a TKO in his first fight but im too lazy to go look. His level of competition is quite low and Remmy Theirry Sokodjou is one of his "bigger" wins and I saw that lived and scored it for Remmy I think.

Perosh is old but has a very underrated clinch / take down game, again, like Whipton said if this old man gets a hold of you against the fence you are going down son. His striking has come along nicely but is still easily his weak point. The fan boy in me wants to see this taken to the ground as Perosh is one of the  more decorated black belts in the UFC, watching him pass guard and work for submissions makes me a happy man. Here are some of his BJJ accomplishments. 

  • World Jiu-Jitsu Championship
    • 1999 World Jiu-Jitsu Championship Bronze Medalist
    • 2003 World Jiu-Jitsu Championship Bronze Medalist
  • Pan American Championship
    • 2000 Pan American Silver Medalist

ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship

  • 5X ADCC World Championship Qualifier

ADCC 2009 South Pacific Champion

  • Australian National Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Championships

10X Australian National Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Champion


Prediction - anthony "old man" perosh by armbar in the 1st. Persoh works the clinch against the fence and gives me an MMA boner with some slick guard passing.


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#8
Posted: 7/19/2012 1:14:33 AM
MMA boner? Shieeeet, im all in then.
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#9
Posted: 7/19/2012 12:09:59 PM

Court McGee   vs.   Nick Ring  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

This is a rematch from TUF season 11, Nick Ring won a UD utilizing front kicks to keep McGee at bay and a slippery guard to get back to his feet when he was taken down. Ring brings a nice blend of Muy Thai, wrestling and BJJ as well as sound head movement, take-down defense and foot work, he is a very well rounded fighter.  Court is at his best when he is able to make the fight dirty, he fights well in close with good head control and decent uppercuts, his real strength is single and double legs against the fence and body lock take-downs, once the fight hits the ground McGee has a decent top game, more work-man like than technical, because of his lack of technical grappling fighters like ring can utilize an active guard to regain their feet. I find that McGee is either in striking mode or wrestling mold and struggles to blend the two together, Fuduka had better success in grounding Ring but he sets his shots up quite a bit better than Court does, and in that fight Ring again utilized a surprisingly active guard to get back to his feet multiple times. 

 

Prediction – Nick ring by UD. I don’t see how this goes much different than their first fight, Ring has the perfect skill set to take-out the slower, more plodding McGee.

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#10
Posted: 7/19/2012 12:17:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crowat:

Court McGee   vs.   Nick Ring  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

This is a rematch from TUF season 11, Nick Ring won a UD utilizing front kicks to keep McGee at bay and a slippery guard to get back to his feet when he was taken down. Ring brings a nice blend of Muy Thai, wrestling and BJJ as well as sound head movement, take-down defense and foot work, he is a very well rounded fighter.  Court is at his best when he is able to make the fight dirty, he fights well in close with good head control and decent uppercuts, his real strength is single and double legs against the fence and body lock take-downs, once the fight hits the ground McGee has a decent top game, more work-man like than technical, because of his lack of technical grappling fighters like ring can utilize an active guard to regain their feet. I find that McGee is either in striking mode or wrestling mold and struggles to blend the two together, Fuduka had better success in grounding Ring but he sets his shots up quite a bit better than Court does, and in that fight Ring again utilized a surprisingly active guard to get back to his feet multiple times. 

 

Prediction – Nick ring by UD. I don’t see how this goes much different than their first fight, Ring has the perfect skill set to take-out the slower, more plodding McGee.

i dig it 
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#11
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:18:41 PM
Chris Clements   vs.   Matt Riddle  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Running out of time so maybe I'll start doing the main card first so I don't have to cut these short.

This should be a striker vs grapple with Riddle weathering the big shots from clements while finding a way to clinch against the fence to snatch a take down. If Riddle gets in a striking match and forgets that he is a wrestler first he could get stopped.

Prediction - Clements by KO in the third
. I think this could go either way and I'll probably stay away from it but I can't shake the feeling that Riddle is going to get knocked out.
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#12
Posted: 7/20/2012 11:35:04 AM
Brian Ebersole   vs.   James Head  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

James Head was a pro boxer before making the switch to MMA. He would take up BJJ under Rafaeal Lovato Jr and has progressed up to his current rank of purple belt.  Jame's first fight was a tough one, he would be welcomed to the UFC by a Nick RIng rear naked choke in the 3rd. Head would then cut to welterweight and score a 1st round submission over Papy Abedi. Head's hands are fast and accurate, he throws good straight punches down the pipe and has above average head movement. While he is a purple belt in BJJ now and had won a silver medal at the 2010 World Championships in the blue belt division head lacks a strong wrestling game, Ring was able to mount his comeback by grounding head after Ring ate some hard straight punches that wobbled him.

Ebersole is a veterans veteran. At only 31 years of age Ebersole has amassed a 65 fight record. He fought 9 times in 2001 and 15 in 2002.....15!? He has won three straight in the UFC over the likes of Dennis Hallman, Claude Patrick (i scored it for patrick) and TJ Waldburger most recently.  Ebersole has sky high fight IQ, serviceable boxing, top notch D1 wrestling acumen and some of the best ground and pound I've seen in the UFC.


Prediction - Ebersole by UD. At first I was going to pick head but Ebersole's wrestling should be able to get him out of any sticky situations on the feet.
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#13
Posted: 7/20/2012 11:52:39 AM
Cheick Kongo   vs.   Shawn Jordan  
Main Card | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Grizzled veteran meets young newcomer. Kongo will have a height and reach advantage, 6'0 to 6'4 and 74'' to 82'' reach. Jordan will have the edge in agility, quickness and wrestling while Kongo has heavier hands and a lethal clinch. I've gone back and forth on this fight and probably won't bet on it as I've never seen Jordan fight and i'm too lazy to go look up his fights.

I'll take Kongo by UD.
I feel like he will stay away from any big shots form Jordan and be a little more crafty standing and in the clinch. Of course Jordan could and probably will have a game plan of getting Kongo to the floor with a power double or something. darn it I don't know.
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#14
Posted: 7/21/2012 10:39:04 AM
Hector Lombard   vs.   Tim Boetsch  
Co-Main Event | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

I'm sure most of you know who these two so I'll get right down to it. Redneck Judo vs Olympic level, ultra fast and heavy hands of Lombard against the more plodding Boetsch. I love me some Boetsch, I really do, this is not a good match up for him though. His route to victory is to survive the early barrage and find a way to get Hector to the floor in the latter rounds. I really don't see an Okami like comeback for Boetsch in this one as Hector should be smart enough to circle away when Tim friggin Boetsch grabs a single collar tie on your friggin neck.

Prediction - Hector Lombard TKO in the second.
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#15
Posted: 7/21/2012 7:50:02 PM
Faber vs Renan "Barao" Pegado

imma go with Faber by UD.GL ALL!
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#16
Posted: 7/21/2012 8:35:41 PM
gl
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#17
Posted: 7/22/2012 12:53:55 AM
Well those predictions didn't go that well, sorry if anyone tailed :P
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