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Author: [Props & Futures] Topic: 2008 MLB Futures Plays
buffettgambler send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/18/2008 3:49:15 PM
Here are the Over/Under futures I have (or plan to place) place prior to season’s start. Although most bets have yet to be placed in anticipation of better prices, they are certain to be placed, as they are trading well below intrinsic value. I may add more plays at a later date.


National League

1. Braves Over 86 -105

Comment: Although on paper, the Braves have not improved much, they should accomplish a sizable jump off an 84 win total last season. In my opinion, the Braves may be the most underrated team in the NL, and a top three contender in the league. With a lot of hidden free agents in the likes of Mike Gonzalez (only 18 games last year), Texeria (only 54 games for the Braves), and replacing Soriano for Wickman in the closer role from the onset, provides a lot of hidden value on this team. The Braves possess a very underrated bullpen, and a deep pitching staff and deep lineup necessary to prevent prolong losing streaks. The market is discounting wins from this team in exchange for inflating the totals on the Mets and Phillies.

2. Brewers Over 84 -110
Comment: The Brewers have a makeup of a “sexy” team that is usually accompanied by an inflated line. However, their huge drop-off late last season prevented them from bypassing the 84 win clip they should bypass this year. Despite having a lot of hitters coming off career years, these players possess youth and upside potential that should prevent a letdown season. Sizable improvements from Bush, Weeks, and Capuano should add some wins, while key free agent signings to shore up bullpen concerns provides balance to this team. In my opinion, the Brewers are the best team in their division, yet are being overshadowed the perennial high expectation teams like the Cubs.

3.) Nats Over 71.5 -110
Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year.

4. Cubs Under 87.5 -110
Comment: Rarely will you see the Cubs potential not fully quantified in the market place. This year appears to be no exception, being priced higher than all but two teams in the NL. The Cubs have a good lineup, good bullpen, and good pitching staff. However, good does not cut 88 plus wins. The sub par backend of the rotation and closer question marks is not customary for a team with such high expectations. Like most free agents from Japan, the addition of Fukodome is more hype than substance, and will not go unnoticed in the marketplace.

5. DBacks Under 86.5 -105
Comment: In my opinion, the DBacks are the 4th best team in their division, yet are being priced as if they were second to only the Dodgers. The Dodgers, Padres and Rockies are all carrying small value on their Over win expectancy, which appears to be a conglomeration of the overvalued status of the DBacks. Their pitching staff is very solid, but is very ordinary in the NL West. Webb and Haren is a solid 1-2 punch, but both should drop-off from last year’s numbers. Johnson and Davis are well past their prime, and the high standard deviation of expected returns in their pitching staff should provide for streaks good and bad. The talent pool in the NL West has increased substantially this year- making it an attractive division for an Under play or two. The Dbacks appear to be the most intriguing opportunity for such an approach.

6.) Phillies Under 88 -125
Comment: In my opinion, the Phillies are the most overvalued future in the NL this year. This is not much of a surprise, as teams possessing elite lineups usually have high expectations early in the season. However, it is a lineup filled with players prone for a drop-off- players that played integral roles in their team’s success last year. Their pitching staff is well below average, and lacks depth. Their bullpen appears solid on paper, but has many concerns. These team went on a late season tear, and beat up on the NL East last year, to squeak by the 88 win clip. The improved East should take wins off their 42-30 division record, and a late season collapse from the Mets will more than likely not be repeated.

7.) Reds Under 76 -115
Comment:

Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.

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#2
Posted: 2/18/2008 3:49:43 PM
American League
1.) A’s Over 74 -115

Comment: In my opinion, this team is a steal at this price, even if they do trade Blanton. With big names leaving the roster in the likes of Haren, Piazza and Swisher, and not being replaced by any noticeable names in the free agent market, the market is expecting a drop-off from their 76 win mark last year. However, a healthy Harden and Dushseshser shore up a very underrated pitching staff. The return of Street and Foulke, and expected improvement from Calero give the A’s a solid bullpen to compliment their pitching staff. Their lineup is not potent, but more effective than they appear on paper. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finished above .500

2.) Twins Over 73.5 -115
Comment:
Here is another team in which the market over discounted the departures of big name players from their team. Even without Santana, the Twins possess a decent group of young pitchers that could surprise the division. Backed by the best bullpen in the AL and a lineup that has never been accustomed to carrying the team, and it is hard to imagine the Twins witnessing a drastic drop-off from their underachieving season last year. The Twins added some decent free agent signings that add some depth to a to a line that has been weak in the backend.

3.) Devil Rays Over 72 -115
Comment:
Although the Devil Rays may be the “sexy” pick early on, this team still may be underrated due to having two big name teams in their division. The Devil Rays problem has always possessed such an inferior bullpen, a deficiency that has been drastically shored up this year (although they still have a below average pen). The Kazmir/Shields combo is very solid, while Garza provides a lot of upside as well. Their lineup has always flown under the radar due to their pitching woes, and this strength should pay more dividends this year. According to my early season power ratings, there is from 3 to five teams worse than the Rays, yet they are priced as if there were only two.

4.) Red Sox Under 94-115
Comment:
I paid the price for constantly fading the Red Sox last year, but will have no problem doing it this year if the market presents that opportunity. It appears early on as if they will, as they are priced as if they are the best team in the league-something they no longer are this year. The high standard deviation in their pitching staff, and a bullpen that overachieved last year, should prevent their pitching from being as dominant as they were last year. Their aging lineup is still very solid, but simply overvalued. The Yankees are the best team in their division, while the Angels and Tigers are arguably better as well.

5.) White Sox Under 76 -115
Comment:
At first blush, it appeared the White Sox did enough shoring up in their bullpen and adding some hitters to fill holes that were detrimental to their success last year. However, their starting pitching staff is still too weak, and should offset improvements in other facets of this team. This team has stockpiled aging players past their prime in their lineup, bullpen and starting staff, and plays in a division with four teams better than they are. The team underachieved last year at 72. However, being one year older and still having holes, 76 should be hard fro them to bypass.

6.) Mariners Under 85.5 -115
Comment:
Last year, the Mariners were one of the teams I bet on the most, as they constantly traded below their intrinsic value until their prolonged winning streak got fully noticed in the market place. However, this team appears to be the most overvalued in this years future market. This team overachieved last year, and added the most hyped free agent in the marketplace in the off season. The Mariners have a top heavy rotation and a top heavy bullpen, which is usually the recipe to an overvaluation. They are no exception. Add an overrated lineup that should rank near the bottom of the league, and we start dealing with a very mediocre team.
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#3
Posted: 2/18/2008 3:58:59 PM
Great to see you back Buffett! I really like some of your plays especially in the NL. I'm all over that D-Backs Under and I really like the Cubs Under and really really really like the Nats over play as well (I just pray the SP's can stay healthy for a while). I also like the D-Rays and Twins Overs and will be on them myself (watch out for Liriano this year!)

Good Luck to ya this season!
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#4
Posted: 2/18/2008 4:27:43 PM
D Rays over is solid.

You gotta take all of the Phils' injuries into account last year as well.  Healthy, and they cruise over 88.
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#5
Posted: 2/18/2008 6:56:35 PM
 And heres to another profitable season.......
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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#6
Posted: 2/18/2008 7:22:36 PM
I really like that Red Sox under, as they play in an extremely difficult division, and don't have the pitching staff people seem to think they have. Mariners should also have a tough time reaching 86 wins, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen.

What are the Jays listed at? I expect them to compete for the division crown this year.
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#7
Posted: 2/18/2008 9:10:19 PM
GL this year Buffett.
 
Look forward to your posts throughout the season, hope the above futures turn out for you.
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#8
Posted: 2/18/2008 9:30:47 PM
Good luck this season
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#9
Posted: 2/18/2008 10:17:00 PM
I really like that A's over. I'm planning on playing A's over, O's over if it's really 66 , and Yankees under. good luck buffetg
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#10
Posted: 2/19/2008 1:58:50 AM

7.) Reds Under 76 -115
Comment:

Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.

How in the world can you say the Reds OVERACHIEVED last season? I think you may be thinking of two years ago when they won 80 games. Absence of Hamilton being a problem? He was absent from the lineup a lot last year anyway. Missing him this year not an issue, Jay Bruce will fill that slot. What makes you think Phillips will have a dropoff? He is entering the beginning of his baseball playing prime years, not exiting them when you figure he could start to drop off in production. Also, he is not some guy that came out of nowhere to have a couple of good years that you could indict as a possible fluke. He was the Indians' top prospect at one point before they gave up on him and sent him to the Reds. Griffey having a drop-off in production makes sense, he is getting old, but they have a glut of outfielders, so he won't have to play more than 130 games even he stays 100% healthy all year. The bullpen does suck, but having Cordero helps more in moving guys like Weathers into more natural setup roles. It's not like their bullpen could be any worse than last year. Gonzales had a shitty year on defense last year, so you expect a rebound there, his offense was fine when he played. But he had an infant child that nearly died several times, so a sub-par year is understandable. And as far as them having the worst staff in the division, everyone in the division sucks after their No.1 & No. 2. I'll take Harang and whatever 4 plugs they stick in there after him against anyone else's starting staff. Cubs have Zambrano and then what? The Astros, Oswalt and spaghetti arms. Brewers, good staff until Sheet's arm blows out again like a 20k mile radial tire. Cards, who the hell isn't hurt? Pirates? One word ugh. Not just for the starting staff, but for the whole team. And city.  

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#11
Posted: 2/19/2008 4:01:17 AM
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#12
Posted: 2/19/2008 3:31:04 PM
where are these posted. i can t find over-unders anywher
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#13
Posted: 2/19/2008 8:39:38 PM
I hope you are here everyday for the Ball, Gambler. 
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#14
Posted: 2/20/2008 12:38:44 AM
Buffetgambler you are one of the best cappers on this site!  I feel the A's are a great value as well and will hit them hard on the over total!   
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#15
Posted: 2/20/2008 6:30:44 PM
Disagree with the A's over M's under and Wsox under plays.
 
A's have crept over the line of giving up too many high priced players and can't recover in my opinion. I think they have the potential to have the worst team in the American League. You say Harden is 'healthy' but I heard that song and dance before. Some guys just will never stay healthy and realize all-world potential.
 
I think Seattle is the favorite in the West.
 
Wsox management revamped this team. They should have the bullpen fixed by spending $30 million on it and the team has committed to win this year instead of rebuild. I don't agree with all the moves but they should be an 80-84 win team.
 
Phills move of getting Lindge and moving Meyer to the rotation is the single biggest offseason move any team made in my opinion. Both will excel in those spost in my opionion.
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#16
Posted: 2/21/2008 6:09:32 AM
At my sportsbook I have BoSox 4-1, Yanks5-1, Mets5-1, Tigers6-1,Tribe11-1, Men In Blue12-1, Cubbies14-1, M's16-1, Phils18-1, Pads-Braves25-1, Rocks-Dbacks20-1,Jays?Crewe?Cards28-1. Does anyone have better odds at their sportsbook? Looking for best possible odds here!
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#17
Posted: 2/21/2008 3:45:59 PM
Buffet
Could you list your top 2-3 Overs and then the same with the Unders.thanks
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#18
Posted: 2/22/2008 1:40:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HateChalk:

Buffet
Could you list your top 2-3 Overs and then the same with the Unders.thanks

 

My top 3 Overs are the A's, Twins and DRays.  Top 2 Unders are the Phillies and Mariners.

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#19
Posted: 2/23/2008 10:54:33 AM
Drays is the play this year
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#20
Posted: 2/23/2008 1:55:59 PM
I like the A's over.
 
I disagree with the White Sox and Twins.
 
GL
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#21
Posted: 2/25/2008 12:27:56 AM
Cubs will go over ,Lou wont take any garbage this year. Phils go under,they always come out flat in April ,the Mets wont choke this year.
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#22
Posted: 2/25/2008 1:36:27 PM
couldn't agree more with you on the mariners,  they are seemingly built to underachieve.  three veteran starters that pitch to contact, but they fail to shore up the defense.  beltre and ichiro are great, betancourt really improved after a slow start in 2007,  but i just don't think ibanez, sexson, lopez, wilkerson/balentien are going to be good enough to limit the damage when batista, washburn, and silva are on the mound.  washburn might lead the league in doubles allowed.
 
silva's signing is a great example of the main problem in seattle.
the m's have built their offense around the no walk, no strikeout, put the ball in play mentality.  they view that style of offense as one that can succeed in the AL.  then they go out and sign that exact kind of starting pitcher.  how can they view that style as good for the "offense" and good for limiting another team's offense ?
 
mclaren will be a wild card.  i don't think he tried to change the culture in seattle last season.  the m's had been having success, so i think it would have been unwise to change things too much during the 2007 season. i'm looking for a different approach this season, a bit more along the lines of a "lou" approach.   hargrove thought he competing in the "play hard" league, mclaren knows he's in the "win" league.  in addition, the pressure is starting to mount from the ownership group in japan.  i would not be surprised to see the mariners make some mid-season moves.
 
that being said, i was hoping for 89.5 or 90.5, but i will gladly invest in the chances these guys win 88 or less.
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#23
Posted: 2/25/2008 2:38:24 PM
I find it interesting that the Houston Astros are 20/1 to win the NL Central.  I would have expected something closer to 14/1.  Your thoughts?
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#24
Posted: 2/26/2008 12:22:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 3825:

couldn't agree more with you on the mariners,  they are seemingly built to underachieve.  three veteran starters that pitch to contact, but they fail to shore up the defense.  beltre and ichiro are great, betancourt really improved after a slow start in 2007,  but i just don't think ibanez, sexson, lopez, wilkerson/balentien are going to be good enough to limit the damage when batista, washburn, and silva are on the mound.  washburn might lead the league in doubles allowed.
 
silva's signing is a great example of the main problem in seattle.
the m's have built their offense around the no walk, no strikeout, put the ball in play mentality.  they view that style of offense as one that can succeed in the AL.  then they go out and sign that exact kind of starting pitcher.  how can they view that style as good for the "offense" and good for limiting another team's offense ?
 
mclaren will be a wild card.  i don't think he tried to change the culture in seattle last season.  the m's had been having success, so i think it would have been unwise to change things too much during the 2007 season. i'm looking for a different approach this season, a bit more along the lines of a "lou" approach.   hargrove thought he competing in the "play hard" league, mclaren knows he's in the "win" league.  in addition, the pressure is starting to mount from the ownership group in japan.  i would not be surprised to see the mariners make some mid-season moves.
 
that being said, i was hoping for 89.5 or 90.5, but i will gladly invest in the chances these guys win 88 or less.

 

Solid post (and poster).

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#25
Posted: 2/26/2008 12:29:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stanford2011:

I find it interesting that the Houston Astros are 20/1 to win the NL Central.  I would have expected something closer to 14/1.  Your thoughts?

I am not sure where you see 20 to 1, but if that price is still attainable it may warrant a play solely for the potential cross sectional arbitrage opportunity it can set up.  As far as value is concerned, I think they are fairly priced within a 18-20 to 1 payout.  The disparity between them and the best team in the division is commensurate to a lower payout.  However, having to bypass 4 teams in which they are not as good as makes this bet not appealing. 

 The Astros have four sub par pitchers in their rotation with not much upside combined with a sub par bullpen.  Their hitting is solid, but still ranks third best in their division. I would prefer betting on a long shot with a lot of young players on their team, as they provide more upward ability to pull off an upset.

Best of luck. 

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