Georgia -37 over Buffalo 21 June 2012
This is my 2nd ranked pick as of 21 June 2012...
Yes, that is a lot of chalk. But UGA has a recent history of covering big chalk at home against patsy’s...
2010 UGA -28.5 over Louisiana Lafayette - Final 55-7
2008 UGA -24.5 over Central Michigan - Final 56-7
2006 UGA -17 over UAB - Final 34-0
Honestly, I believe the open will be closer to 35. UGA comes off a bowl loss to Mich St. they lose 3 starters on the OL, and will without ogletree, smith, rambo, and cummings for week 1. Steele has the game capped at 41 (after considering home field). I like UGA in this matchup at 37 or better. Murray will want to make a Heisman statement. 5 Star RB (4th ranked RB) Crowell will want to improve on his 850 yard freshman campaign, UGA returns 5 of top 6 WR's, returns 7 O starters and 9 D starters (will be without 3 returning starters in week 1). In 3rd year of Grantham system as a top 5 rated D in D1.
I researched the backups for the 4 suspended players. They included Herrera, Moore, Mitchell, and Swann. All four of the new starters in week 1 were 4 star recruits when signed. Granted, they lose AA Rambo and potential AA in Ogletree, but 4 star elite talent with 6 months to prepare, there should be virutally no drop off against a hapless Buffalo team who will be starting a new QB in Licata (a 2 star recruit). Jarvis Jones for LB for UGA had 13.5 sacks last year. I think the guy will have at least 4 in this game. Granted Buffalo has a weapon on O named Branden Oliver . He had 1444 yards last year and is a 1st team MAC RB in Steele's preseason Conference accolades. However, I think UGA's D Line is going to make for a long day for Mr. Oliver.
Mark Richt is off the hot seat, but as another poster pointed out, I am not sure if I can trust him (ATS) against a bottom 10 Buffalo team. However, UGA knows Missouri is on deck and they will need to have that green O Line humming by 8 Sep. In addition, UGA knows it will play Buffalo and probably Mizzou without 4 key D players, so I think the intensity and performance of these subs will be at a high level. Who knows they may have the opp to remain the starters when the MJ Posse come back in force. UGA should be motivated since they ended the season with two losses, a close bowl loss to Mich St and a blowout from LSU 10-42. UGA is 8-2 ATS the last two years as a home favorite. Buffalo is 3-9 ATS as a road dog the last two years.
My prediction
UGA 56
Buffalo 3
Again, Richt is a bit of an enigma, but based on the motivation factors listed above, the talent different (even with the suspensions), and a potential stat launch of a Heisman campaign for Murray, I believe UGA wins big, and covers...
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