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LonghornHoosier - Week 1 - 10 Preliminary Evaluations

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Posted: #1

I am now focussed on 10 games for week 1...I have the favorites in all 10 games...I will pick 3 of these...I will provide my explanations for each for the next 10 days....  I know it is early, but I will appreciate your feedback...

HomeNebraskaGeorgiaCaliforniaUSCUTEPLSUNotre DameOregonAkronMichigan St.
Away Forecasted Spread
Southern Miss -13
Buffalo -37
Nevada -14
Hawaii -37
Oklahoma -29
North Texas -39
Navy -14
Arkansas St -34
UCF -19
Boise St -7

Thank You!

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #2

I am now focussed on 10 games for week 1...I have the favorites in all 10 games...I will pick 3 of these...I will provide my explanations for each for the next 10 days.... I know it is early, but I will appreciate your feedback...

Reformatted

Nebraska -13 over S Miss.

Georgia -37 over Buffalo

Ca -14 over Nevada

USC - 37 over Hawaii

OU -29 over UTEP

LSU - 39 over N Texas

Notre Dame -14 over Navy

Oregon -34 over Ark St.

UCF 019 over Akron

Michigan St. -7 over Boise St.

Thank you!

 

 

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Posted: #3
I Love Nebraska -13  ... already have $240 down to win $200 on 5 Dimes ... Line is upto -14.5 already ... Been with you since day 1 on this one 

Georgia should roll the U at Buffalo.... But who knows if the back door is left open late ... Not sure I would lay more than 5 TD vs the Bulls in this spot 

CAL vs Nevada looks Like Over all the way to me ... Hoping for a total of 57 or less ....

USC has layed some stinkers in week 1 the past 2 years .... not sure I wanna lay this many ... Maybe Teat Total over is the play ...

Sooners gotta be laying more than 29.... Maybe close to 35 ???

LSU has to be laying 42+.... Some ??? on offense for the tigers , likely pass but 56-0 would not surprise me 

Fading Notre Dame again this season seems like a good idea... Navy has just enough back to cover this number, Not sure Brian Kelly's Crabby Bitch style works with Blue Chippers

Oregon vs Arkansas St is another game screaming Over ... wonder if the total will be 65 or more ???
 
UCF on Paper should hammer Akron .... MAC teams get some fishy calls at home vs OOC foes ...

fading Boise St can be scary ... especially when they are 33-2 with first year starting QB's ... Maybe Sparty wins by 4 or less ?



BOL Brother ... May this be your Best year Ever

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #4

DUFL - I know the sentiment here is that Kelly is whiney, but ND demolished AFA and Navy last year.   They are having good recruiting classes.    Kelly seems to be a diciplinarian.  So is Saban, almost at a psychotic level with an intense attention to detail.   Is it possible that it will click for Kelly and ND this year in year 3 of Kelly's regime?    Why is Kelly considered a whiney bitch (by some of you seasoned cappers) and Saban is comparably intense, and Saban is highly regarded.    If there is a dfferent between the two, other than 3-0 BCS NC's for Saban v none for Kelly, please explain?

Kelly needs to name a QB and stick with him.  I agree with packers, that QB play will be the difference between 7-5 and 10-2...the only almost assured losses I see for ND are USC and OU...other than that, I think they will win or at least compete well in the other 10...

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Posted: #5
NBC was so afraid to show Kelly's meltdowns last season ...

He is always Bitching and Moaning and screaming in his players faces ...

Ask the Former Cincinnati QB (tony Pike) what kind of A-Hole Kelly is ...

Saban is a Winner at the Highest Level .... Kelly seems Like a Guy who Bullies lesser recruits .... The Jury is still out is he Can win at the Big time level


I see the Irish losing these games this season 

at Michigan St 

at least 2 of the following *Miami, Stanford, BYU 

at Oklahoma 

at USC 


and Maybe vs PITT in a tough spot , or at BC ...Maybe A SPLIT THERE ...
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #6

wanna fade ND, go ahead : ND had all summer and fall to gear up to the option.

here's the games im looking at week1:

NDvsNAVY - ND: new OC, good spring, need a QB

USCvsHAW - hawaii(new QB&HC)
GEOvsBUFF - DNT TRUST THEM for some reason(SO WHT),good spr.
UCF vs AKRON- UCF: bad DD FAV road team, good spr. no play
WVUvsMAR -
TREE vsSJSU- TREE new qb's need experience.
NEBvsSOMISS - coming off a down season shaky QB play. no play, but i still like the number for a NEB cover.
RUTvsTUL -RUT: lost a great coach, good spr.
LSUvsNO.TEX - inflated lines maybe
GT @ VATECH - GT: good spring

added after june:

texas-

oregon-

thurs : ucla@RICE, byuvsWSU, minn@UNLV,

 
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Posted: #7
Very nice thread man 
 
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Posted: #8

Nebraska under 14 (maybe up to 17, what the hell...huskers may run wild early in season to prove they're still relevant)

OU anything under 35 (gotta think the D will be better w/stoops, utep doesn't have a chance....then again, OU has the tendancy to choke w/terrible opponents....spread wise)

LSU anything around 40-45? (if north texas scores a TD at all in this game, LSU should be ashamed....DBL has the score about right at 56-0, but i'll even give ntex a FG....56-3)

Any other game I would be interested given spreads now, possibly UGA big.....Murray's gotta get those big #'s early in the season.

I can't wait for the MSU/Boise game....gut says the spartans take it to 'em, but this game outta be a dandy.

 
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Posted: #9
N. Texas hasn't scored a TD in their last 3 meetings... LSU is 4-0 all time vs. N. Texas, winning by an avg. of 46 ppg.



Gotta think UGA wants to make a statement in this one... Murray needs to put up awesome numbers to help any shot he has at the Heisman 



Don't think UTEP will provide any threat to the Sooners... OU D should be much improved this year
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Corley1011:

Gotta think UGA wants to make a statement in this one... Murray needs to put up awesome numbers to help any shot he has at the Heisman 
 
Exactly, I thought about putting that in my recap, but thought twice because he won't win it (he'll put up good #'s though) but this is the game where you definitely pad those stats.
 
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Posted: #11
I think he has an outside chance at it... but he has to play flawless every game... and they have the schedule where he could
 
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Posted: #12

Thanks Guys!  Here is the schedule

Nebraska -13 over S Miss. 20 June 2012

Georgia -37 over Buffalo 21 June 2012

Ca -14 over Nevada 22 June 2012

USC - 37 over Hawaii 23 June 2012

OU -29 over UTEP 24 June 2012

LSU - 39 over N Texas 25 June 2012

Notre Dame -14 over Navy 26 June 2012

Oregon -34 over Ark St. 27 June 2012

UCF -19 over Akron 28 June 2012

Michigan St. -7 over Boise St. 29 June 2012

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #13
honestly, i think this research we are doing now will pay off during the season...this is not just about the first week.  where are all teh touts that show up game week...i think if we help each other vet our picks, and of course make adjustments based on camp performance and other factors, we can increase our chances of performing well during the entire season.   I have my top 10 picks posted here.   There are others I considered like Texas -30 over Wyoming, Rutgers -23 over Tulane, and of course Alabama -12 over Michigan et al.   I think these 10 give and once I narrow it down to 3, give me the best chance to win in week 1.   I realize can't win them all against the books, but every pick I make, I vet it out, and set the bar high, meaning perfection.   of course that won't happen, but if you strive for perfection, you can sometimes find valid reasons to discount certain picks.    i love the strategy and the challenge of picking against the standard.  
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Posted: #14
Rutgers will absolutely blast Tulane

Like Bama over Michigan

Leaning Texas over Wyoming



All 3 of those teams are better defensively... I don't care what Bama lost, Michigan is overrated... they can't hang with the SEC... Look what MSU did to them 2 years ago... 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Corley1011:

 
Like Bama over Michigan




All 3 of those teams are better defensively... I don't care what Bama lost, Michigan is overrated... they can't hang with the SEC... Look what MSU did to them 2 years ago... 

thats the one game i wont bet on

 
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Posted: #16

i dont know if u guys remember who desmond was at mich, but he was un-stop-a-bel

denard reminds me of that guy, st8 a-tha-leet...

 
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Posted: #17
Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




prolly so...OU maybe next....

Although I think this is a sound strategy....one that will make you more than you lose in the long run....
Personally will be backing off some week 1 TY.....
because I have had EASILY my worst weeks early the last 3-4 yrs seems like.....(before easily my best weeks)

What I will do now....and hopefully from here on out....
is to EVERY week look for VALUE....and avoid "shortcuts".....like just play favs.....dogs....whatever
*but of course still pay close attention to season trends....> weeks 1-4 or so still (look to play) strong/dominant teams....> then look to FADE these same teams later......and so on

My week 1 card will look something like this....
*off top of my head > done little work

CAL -14 or vs Nevada.....
*back home....finished strong.....QB + weapons back
Pack weak on road.....with "winnable" HG next vs USF
Cal 13-3 ATS run as HF......with (slight) revenge angle from BIG 2010 loss at Nevada....only S Utah next

Nebraska -13' vs S Miss
*SMiss starting over (6/4 st back .....lose huge QB / HC)......with a bye next......to re-group before CUSA game with EC....Huskers BADLY need big win and nice record as bully

NC St +7 or so vs Tenn
great dog that matches up well....

OU -28' or so at UTEP
*Miners ZERO chance of stopping Sooners....Mike back as DC should mean more defensive pride...(they were ass-kickers when he was there last)...

consider.....
Ohio +15 or so at Penn St
Zona -7 or so ? vs Toledo
Miami,O +27' at Ohio St
UNLV +13' ??....vs Minny

USC.....SMU....Boise...Marshall?.....EMich wtf (check out how much they have improved every year).....will be huge on WAZZU at some point....not yet probably
 
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Posted: #18
Denard looks great against the B10 D's... Not so much against D's with speed
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by Corley1011:

Denard looks great against the B10 D's... Not so much against D's with speed

i hear u dogg, and i know this is BAMA...i cant believe im saying this...

chk it:

week 1 is crazy

there is always a DD fav that loses st8 up

we have only seen denard vs. one sec DEF his whole carreer and he was only a SOPH! i think he's gotten lil better since...

Mich is a BCS team cathing DD week 1

QB #16 for MICH in now a SR.

senior QB's on a bcs team getting DD week 1 ( this combo is risky i mean very risky to play against)

i mean BAMA is not a bad play but neither is MICH,

also im a parlay guy week 1 so i need solid plays, BAMA rite now to me is not a solid play.

i dont know if BAMA is gonna have that same hunger after just winning it all.

week 1 is about finding that creampuff to smash on...

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

NBC was so afraid to show Kelly's meltdowns last season ...

I see the Irish losing these games this season 

at Michigan St 

at least 2 of the following *Miami, Stanford, BYU 

at Oklahoma 

at USC 


and Maybe vs PITT in a tough spot , or at BC ...Maybe A SPLIT THERE ...


No reason to think UM won't give them a game either..
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Corley1011:

Denard looks great against the B10 D's... Not so much against D's with speed


And MSU's D the closest thing to a SEC defense..

He might not make it through the entire game in one piece
 
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Posted: #22
There does seem to be some sort of trend that heavy favorites cover in the first 3-5 weeks and a lot of the "public" bettors win, middle 3-5 weeks tend to go to the "sharps", and also where vegas gets all the public money back because those guys doubled and tripled early winnings thinking it was that easy, and the end of the year into bowls I don't think much of a foundation for a trend could be presented, having said all of that, there is the huge part of the equation which is picking which of those teams that is heavily favored is bettable in that particular year.  Last year it was OU, Boise, LSU, etc, early on and those were automatic.  The year before I remember it was Ohio St at 11am every saturday just absolutely man handling people for easy no sweat covers.  Its different teams every year, although if you bet Texas -30 against anybody you need to be checked, trust me I might be the biggest Texas fan on this site and have bet and lost them every week for the last two years it seems, pride betting is dumb FYI....but if we can tread lightly in week 1, I think those bettable heavy favorites might become apparent and win us a substantial amount of coin for the first couple of weeks.  Looking forward to a great year of gambling, I can tell this is going to be a very positive and profitable thread, I cant wait!
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

NBC was so afraid to show Kelly's meltdowns last season ...

He is always Bitching and Moaning and screaming in his players faces ...

Ask the Former Cincinnati QB (tony Pike) what kind of A-Hole Kelly is ...

Saban is a Winner at the Highest Level .... Kelly seems Like a Guy who Bullies lesser recruits .... The Jury is still out is he Can win at the Big time level


I see the Irish losing these games this season 

win at Michigan St 

win, win, win at least 2 of the following *Miami, Stanford, BYU 

loss at Oklahoma 

loss at USC 


and Maybe vs win PITT  in a tough spot , or easy win at BC  ...Maybe A SPLIT THERE ...

catholics are use to harsh punishment.

 
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Posted: #24
Hey not sure if anyone knows... but is the dome going to be open? I doubt it, but it's something to think about
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by Hornyfrog2013:

There does seem to be some sort of trend that heavy favorites cover in the first 3-5 weeks and a lot of the "public" bettors win, middle 3-5 weeks tend to go to the "sharps", and also where vegas gets all the public money back because those guys doubled and tripled early winnings thinking it was that easy, and the end of the year into bowls I don't think much of a foundation for a trend could be presented, having said all of that, there is the huge part of the equation which is picking which of those teams that is heavily favored is bettable in that particular year.  Last year it was OU, Boise, LSU, etc, early on and those were automatic.  The year before I remember it was Ohio St at 11am every saturday just absolutely man handling people for easy no sweat covers.  Its different teams every year, although if you bet Texas -30 against anybody you need to be checked, trust me I might be the biggest Texas fan on this site and have bet and lost them every week for the last two years it seems, pride betting is dumb FYI....but if we can tread lightly in week 1, I think those bettable heavy favorites might become apparent and win us a substantial amount of coin for the first couple of weeks.  Looking forward to a great year of gambling, I can tell this is going to be a very positive and profitable thread, I cant wait!

nice to hear from a Horns fan...

only reason i like this one:

wyo not a great wk1 team

wyo not much DEF

wyo not great vs teams with run game+DEF

i like TEX but not over -25, i will not give the 31...

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