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UFC on Fuel 8 Plays

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Posted: #1
YTD Record:
Overall: 42-45, +6.80 Units 
UFC: 24-29, +4.25 Units 
Strikeforce: 4-3, +0.05 Units 
Bellator: 14-13, +2.50 Units 
Final 2012 Record: 158-174-2, -76.20 Units 
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units 
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units 

Here they are:

1.  Stefan Struve (-175) over Mark Hunt.  Risking 10.5 units to win 6 units.  I have done a complete 180 on this one.  Bottom line, Stefan Struve wants a title shot, and as a result, will not fight dumb like he has in the past.  He will execute the same plan versus Hunt as he did against Lavar Johnson, which is go for the immediate take down and tap Hunt.  There is nothing we have seen from Hunt's past submission defeats that makes me think that he will last more than 2 minutes in this fight if Struve fights smart.

2.  Kazuki Tokudome (+120) over Cristiano Marcello.  Risking 5 units to win 6 units.  

3.  Parlay of Diego Sanchez over Takanori Gomi and Hyun Gyu Lim over Marcelo Guimaraes.  Risking 3.55 units to win 3 units.

4.  Kyung Ho Kang (Even) over Alex Caceres.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

5.  Riki Fukuda (Even) over Brad Tavares.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

6.  Rani Yahya (+110) over Mizuto Hirota.  Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.

7.  Wanderlei Silva (+225) over Brian Stann.  Risking 1 unit to win 2.25 units.

I am holding off betting on the other fights until the morning, as I think I will get better lines...
 
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Posted: #2
GL

But should you really be betting 10.5 units on a fight you've "done a complete 180 on?"
 
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Posted: #3
Betting heavyweights is always scary. Especially those guys with KO power. That being said, if Struve gets him to the ground, Hunt is done.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by nooob:

Betting heavyweights is always scary. Especially those guys with KO power. That being said, if Struve gets him to the ground, Hunt is done.

Agree with this.  I tend to avoid HWs behind much as I can.  Struve is going to have to clinch and see at least a couple uppercuts firing up at him.  I have Hunt as a Dog in this one.  Who knows what will happen though.

GL 219 I like the rest of your plays.  
 
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Posted: #5
UPDATED CARD:

1.  Stefan Struve (-175) over Mark Hunt.  Risking 10.5 units to win 6 units.  

2.  Kazuki Tokudome (+120) over Cristiano Marcello.  Risking 5 units to win 6 units.  

3.  Parlay of Diego Sanchez over Takanori Gomi and Hyun Gyu Lim over Marcelo Guimaraes.  Risking 3.55 units to win 3 units.

4.  Kyung Ho Kang (Even) over Alex Caceres.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

5.  Riki Fukuda (Even) over Brad Tavares.  Risking 2 units to win 2 units.

6.  Rani Yahya (+110) over Mizuto Hirota.  Risking 2 units to win 2.2 units.

7.  Wanderlei Silva (+225) over Brian Stann.  Risking 1 unit to win 2.25 units.

8.  Parlay of Dong Hyun Kim over Siyar Bahadurzada and Takeya Mizugaki over Brian Caraway.  Risking 2.25 units to win 2 units.

9.  Stefan Struve - Mark Hunt under 1.5 rounds (+150).  Risking 2 units to win 3 units.  bet365 still has this as +150, which seems like a line error, since other books have the under significantly juiced.  I will update if bet365 changes the line on me or cancels the bet.  The last time they screwed up the line on a UFC over/under bet, they let the line error stand, but I ended up losing the bet anyway...

10.  Wanderlei Silva - Brian Stann over 1.5 rounds (-125).  Risking 1.25 units to win 2 units.

11.  Yushin Okami (+175) over Hector Lombard.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units.

12.  Parlay of Takeya Mizugaki - Brian Caraway over 2.5 rounds with Riki Fukuda - Brad Tavares over 2.5 rounds.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:

GL

But should you really be betting 10.5 units on a fight you've "done a complete 180 on?"

It is not unusual for me to change my mind on an initial lean.  The only reason I am publicly stating it in this case is because earlier this week in sawman's thread, I stated that I initially leaned Hunt. 

When ever I go through a card, I normally have an initial lean, then I do all my research, which includes an analysis of how each fighter can potentially win the fight.  Sometimes, my initial lean is changed after completing all my capping work.  Sometimes, my lean stays the same.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by nooob:

Betting heavyweights is always scary. Especially those guys with KO power. That being said, if Struve gets him to the ground, Hunt is done.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:


Agree with this.  I tend to avoid HWs behind much as I can.  Struve is going to have to clinch and see at least a couple uppercuts firing up at him.  I have Hunt as a Dog in this one.  Who knows what will happen though.

GL 219 I like the rest of your plays.  

I don't expect Struve will eat much of anything in initiating a clinch takedown.  I don't think Lavar Johnson landed anything significant when Struve closed the distance to take him down.
 
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Posted: #9
Good luck MR  Last time I did a complete 180 was on a Struve fight as well when he fought Miocic, flipped to the wrong side though
 
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Posted: #10
Good luck. Lets get some Struve $!
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by MR219:


I don't expect Struve will eat much of anything in initiating a clinch takedown.  I don't think Lavar Johnson landed anything significant when Struve closed the distance to take him down.

Lavar is strong, but I would say Hunt has better TDD.  Schaub is a decent wrestler but he took Lavar down with such ease.  Hunt has such a low center of gravity that it will be hard I think for Struve to do this.  

I also believe Hunt is a better striker than Barry or Lavar....much better actually.  And although it isn't anything special, I think he has a better ground game/TDD than both as well.
 
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Posted: #12
Gl MR! I'm a huge Struve fan & will have a small play on him. The size discrepancy at the weigh in was hilarious. My only concern is that Struves best striking is actually in close opposed to his jab & frontlicks leaving him open to hunts crazy power even in small spaces. I truly believe he has an advantage everywhere tho. Hope it hits for you!
 
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Posted: #13
Nothing for me tonight!

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Nothing for me tonight!


Sharp, you are killing me!  Every time you take a night off I have a losing night!  For the love of all that is right in this world, please throw $1 on somebody, anybody!!!   ,
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by ctm1985:

Good luck MR  Last time I did a complete 180 was on a Struve fight as well when he fought Miocic, flipped to the wrong side though

BOL on your plays as well!!! 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

Good luck. Lets get some Struve $!

Struve money is the best kind of money!!! 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:


Lavar is strong, but I would say Hunt has better TDD.  Schaub is a decent wrestler but he took Lavar down with such ease.  Hunt has such a low center of gravity that it will be hard I think for Struve to do this.  

I also believe Hunt is a better striker than Barry or Lavar....much better actually.  And although it isn't anything special, I think he has a better ground game/TDD than both as well.

I agree that Hunt is better than Lavar and Barry at striking, but his takedown defense, and especially his submission defense is virtually non-existent.  If Struve wants to take Hunt down, he will not get stuffed.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:

Gl MR! I'm a huge Struve fan & will have a small play on him. The size discrepancy at the weigh in was hilarious. My only concern is that Struves best striking is actually in close opposed to his jab & frontlicks leaving him open to hunts crazy power even in small spaces. I truly believe he has an advantage everywhere tho. Hope it hits for you!

I honestly believe that Struve will not stand and trade with Hunt, so hopefully, none of this will matter...
 
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Posted: #19
As far as my play #9 goes, bet365 has now corrected their line error, and it also appears that they are going to let the bet stand! Pure awesomeness!!!
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by MR219:


Sharp, you are killing me!  Every time you take a night off I have a losing night!  For the love of all that is right in this world, please throw $1 on somebody, anybody!!!   ,


The only things I even considered playing were Hunt, Tokudome, Hirota, and Okami.  

Since Okami was the closest to a play, I'll make a $10 bet on him.  
 
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Posted: #21
Thanks Sharp!

Now I am GUARANTEED a winning night!

LOL!!!
 
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Posted: #22
Wow, Kang got robbed IMO. Thought he clearly won the first two rounds...
 
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Posted: #23

nothing to do with your picks,just talking about the judges,really thought fodor won rounds 2 and 3 last week,i had him 29-18,all 3 sherdog-espn judges from sherdog live results and play bye play all 3 had it 29-28 fodor //// on to kang this week,all three had him winning rounds 1 and 2,losing 3,so once again a 29-28, 3-0 across the board score for kang /// on to gomi which I thought was the worst of the three,i had gomi 30-27,two of the sherdog jusgeds had it 29-28 gomi,and one agreed with me 30-27 gomi /// some really bad judging lately and nobody is even complaining much about it //// just wondered your thought on these three /// liked your play on struve,terrible fight I.Q.-WHAT WAS HE THINKING WITH THOSE ARMBARS AGAINST A GUY WITH TREE STUMPS-WTF ???? ps-sorry for the crappy typing-really bad vision. ps-thanks for all you do in this forum-your tokudome play and sanchez-lim parlay saved me on this last event-even though I thought diego lost soundly-LOL !!!!

 
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Posted: #24
29-28 ON FODOR NOT 29-18,STOUT DID NOTHING IN ROUNDS 2 AND 3 !!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
The plays went 8-4 for +2.8 units.  It definitely could have been a lot better or a lot worse.  The stupidity of Stefan Struve is shear anger inducing.  Hunt gives up his back, and instead of going for a rear naked choke, he attempts an arm bar and loses position?  Then in the 3rd, when they are both gassed, he would have been able to take down Hunt without any effort, yet he stands and bangs, gets KTFO, and breaks his jaw in the process.  The best thing for Struve is to stop training with those idiots in Amsterdam and move his training camp to the States and join a "real" team!

I do feel fortunate in that Diego Sanchez and Takeya Mizugaki were given gift decisions by the judges, as I thought both guys clearly lost 29-28 (Diego winning round one and losing 2 and 3, Mizugaki losing rounds 1 and 2 and winning round 3).

Kyung Ho Kang was hosed worse than anyone IMO.  How anyone could have thought that Caceres won either round 1 or 2 is beyond comprehension to me!  
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