The Florida Panthers can take a 3-0 series lead and put the Tampa Bay Lightning on the brink of elimination with a road win at Amalie Arena tonight.
While Florida has consecutive 3-2 home wins to start the series, the NHL odds are tight in Game 3. The story of the series has been the elite goaltending from Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and Tampa Bay No. 1 Andrei Vasilevskiy, and while Vasilevskiy has been better statistically, Bobrovsky has been hogging time on the highlights reels after multiple 10-bell saves in Game 2.
Here are our free NHL picks and Panthers vs. Lightning predictions for Game 3 on Thursday, April 25.
Panthers vs Lightning prediction
My best bet
Under 6 (-102 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Avoiding an 0-3 series deficit will be priority No. 1 for the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, and No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is no stranger to putting the club on his back and stealing a win. The 29-year-old Russian has a career .921 SV% and 2.38 GAA across 112 postseason appearances, including .928 and 2.11 marks through 71 starts during Tampa’s three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Unfortunately for the Bolts, it’s a similar story at the opposite end of the rink, with Florida Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky sporting a .915 SV% and 2.70 GAA over 21 postseason appearances across the past two years.
The Panthers have been a defensive juggernaut and possession nightmare for opponents all season, and it’s been more of the same to start this series. Florida has a 53.0 Corsi For percentage and 58.7 expected goals percentage at five-on-five, and as noted, the Cats have limited the Lightning to just four goals through the two games.
While I’m anticipating the series shifting to Amalie Arena to help the Bolts create more quality-scoring chances, Florida has been stingy all season, and Bobrovsky’s solid play dates back to the regular season with a .924 SV% and 2.13 GAA across his final 24 starts.
Expect goals to be tough to come by again in Game 3 for both the Panthers and Lightning.
Panthers vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6
Anton Lundell Over 0.5 points
Anton Lundell Over 1.5 shots
Panthers center Sam Bennett is out for at least a week with an upper-body injury, and it’ll be Anton Lundell climbing the depth chart to slot between wingers Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe. It’s a golden opportunity for Lundell, and he finished the season strong with four goals and two assists across the final six games of the regular season. He also picked up the helper on Verhaeghe’s game-winning goal in overtime on Tuesday.
Lundell has largely been utilized in a bottom-six gig through his first three seasons in the league, but the 22-year-old center was a first-round pick and has flashed offensive potential when given an opportunity in a scoring role. Additionally, Lundell clicked with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe for 13 attempts, six shots, and an 81.3 CF% across just 6:28 of 5-on-5 time in Game 2.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Panthers vs Lightning odds
Panthers vs Lightning live odds
Panthers vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Florida +1.5 (-280)| Tampa Bay -1.5 (+237)
- Moneyline: Florida -107 | Tampa Bay -105
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-102) | Under 6 (-113)
Panthers vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There have been several minor adjustments to this moneyline at Pinnacle since opening at Tampa Bay -105 Wednesday morning. However, with the Lightning priced at -104 on Thursday afternoon after being listed as short as -117 Wednesday evening, there hasn’t been enough action to steam a lasting price in either direction.
- By comparison, DraftKings and FanDuel both have Tampa Bay priced at -115 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The total is also interesting because FanDuel has an outlier 5.5 number available, with the Over carrying a healthy vig. Interestingly enough, the total of 6.0 also have the Over saddled with the higher tax.
Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience
Make your Stanley Cup Playoffs wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!
Panthers vs Lightning trend
The Panthers have allowed two goals or fewer in each of their past six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Lightning.
Panthers vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, MAX |
Panthers vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
