The Florida Panthers skated to a hard-fought win in Game 1 against their intrastate rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, thanks in large part to a strong defensive effort as the visitors were held to just 19 shots.
Nikita Kucherov was also quiet with just one assist and only a single shot on net for the Lightning, but how long will this season’s Art Ross Trophy winner stay silent?
Keep reading to find out how Kucherov features in my NHL picks and Lightning vs. Panthers predictions for Tuesday, April 23.
Lightning vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 points (+127 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Florida Panthers played an excellent defensive game in the series opener as they held the Tampa Bay Lightning to just two goals and 19 shots on net in a 3-2 win.
A big part of Florida’s success was their ability to limit the damage from Lightning star Nikita Kucherov, who was held off the score sheet completely until he assisted on Steven Stamkos’ goal with 10 seconds remaining in regulation. But will the Panthers be able to keep Kucherov quiet again in Game 2? I’d argue not.
The Panthers were uncharacteristically disciplined in Game 1 as they took just two minor penalties — one of which the Lightning took advantage of as they went 1-for-2 on the power play. Florida was one of the most penalized teams in the regular season, ranking first in penalty minutes per game (13:36), second in total penalties taken (415), and second in minor penalties (362).
While referees are known to put away their whistles at times in the postseason, there’s reason to believe that the Panthers will eventually start their march to the sin bin, and that’s where Kucherov shines.
The Lightning star notched a league-leading 53 points on the man advantage this season — about 37% of his total point production — while he led Tampa Bay’s top-ranked power play to a 28.6% conversion rate.
If the Lightning get a couple more chances on the power play, Kucherov should have a much better showing in Game 2.
Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 points
Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 shots
Under 6.5
Coupled with the Over on 1.5 points for Kucherov, I’ll look for Sam Reinhart to continue his shoot-first mentality for the Panthers with Over 2.5 shots. Reinhart notched five shots in Game 1 and has recorded at least three shots on net in six straight contests and 10 of his last 11 outings.
Lastly, I’ll take the Under on an alternate line of 6.5 goals as these clubs tend to play low-scoring games. The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Floridian foes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lightning vs Panthers odds
Lightning vs Panthers live odds
Lightning vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Tampa Bay +1.5 | Florida -1.5
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +158 | Florida -180
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Lightning vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Panthers opened at -180 and slid down to -168 by Monday night, while the Lightning opened at +158 and moved up to +148.
- The total opened at 5.5 goals with the Over at -121 and the Under at +105.
- The Panthers have won five straight games overall and are 5-1 in their last six meetings against the Lightning.
- The Under is 6-1 in Florida’s last seven contests, though 69% of bettors are taking the Over as of Tuesday morning.
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Lightning vs Panthers trend
Florida is 6-0 in its last six home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.
Lightning vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Lightning vs Panthers latest injuries
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