March Madness Props and Best Bets: Alabama vs North Carolina Predictions for the Sweet 16

Prop bet #1: Veteran presence

The Alabama Crimson Tide lead the country with a whopping 90.7 points per game but also give up plenty of points, surrendering 84.1 ppg since the start of January.

They've been particularly vulnerable inside the arc where they rank 199th in opponent 2-point percentage (50.8%) and starting center Grant Nelson is a defensive liability.

That's a matchup advantage that the North Carolina Tar Heels will likely look to exploit down low with big man Armando Bacot. He's scored the second-most points all-time in UNC history which is incredible given the caliber of players that have gone through this storied program.

Bacot became a March Madness star when he helped lead UNC to the national title game in 2022 and he's seen his offensive role increase in this year's postseason run as well, dropping 18+ points in each of his last four games. The senior is a monster on the glass and with Alabama 238th in the country in defensive rebounding rate, he should get his share of putbacks.

With Alabama's weak defense and blazing fast pace, taking the Over on Bacot's points total seems like a no-brainer.

Armando Bacot prop: Over 16.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Sears the sniper

Alabama's up-tempo attack is spearheaded by guard Mark Sears who averages 21.5 ppg and shoots a sizzling 43.5% from beyond the arc. The Tar Heels have solid defensive analytics but also play at a speedy pace. They've been pulled into shootouts against other high-scoring opponents such as Duke, Kentucky, UConn, and Tennessee.

The Tar Heels are 54th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (31.7%) but don't actually defend well against perimeter shooters and allow high-quality 3-point attempts.

They're 298th at defending catch-and-shoot threes and 317th at defending off-the-dribble threes according to ShotQualityBets which suggests that regression will happen when they face better shooting teams.

That regression may have hit since they're allowing opponents to shoot 39.6% over their last three games and now face Sears who can light it up from deep. With the O/U on Sears' threes set at 2.5 and the Bama guard eclipsing that number in nine of his last 14 games, we'll take the Over.

Mark Sears prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Board man gets paid

Forward Harrison Ingram has been a big factor in North Carolina's success this season. The former five-star recruit transferred to Chapel Hill from Stanford and has been a plus defender while also chipping in with 12.2 ppg.

However, his biggest impact has come on the boards. Ingram is actually in a bit of a mini-slump when it comes to rebounding, averaging a modest 5.3 rpg over his last four games. UNC faced some extremely slow-paced teams during that span and there will be more available rebounds in this contest since these up-tempo attacks rank near the top of the country in field goal attempts per game.

A larger sample size is a better indication of what Ingram can do on the glass and before that recent four-game stretch, he had pulled down double-digits in rebounds in 12 of his previous 15 games while averaging 11.3 rpg during that span.

The O/U on Ingram's rebounds total had been set at 9.5 or 10.5 for much of the last two months and being able to get that number at 8.5 for this contest is a bargain.

Harrison Ingram prop: Harrison Ingram Over 8.5 rebounds (-140 at DraftKings)