The World Series Champions will be in the Motor City on Monday to take on a Detroit Tigers team hoping to turn the corner and make the playoffs this season. As the Tigers welcome the defending champs, they will be facing a familiar face on the mound.
Find out how this affected my MLB picks and Rangers vs. Tigers predictions on April 15.
Rangers vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Michael Lorenzen Over 3.5 strikeouts (-135 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
This will be Michael Lorenzen's first start of the season for the Texas Rangers after being activated from the injured list before tonight's game against the Detroit Tigers. With it being Lorenzen's first start, a high pitch count isn't likely, but with his strikeout total trading at 3.5 (-135) for the Over at Caesars, I'm hitting the Over.
This might be his first start of the season, but Lorenzen is no stranger to the friendly confines of Comerica Park, which helped him have his best season, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the Tigers before being dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies at the 2023 deadline.
Not only will Lorenzen be very familiar with the scouting report for each Tigers hitter after being their teammate last year, but he was also a reliever before he switched to the starting rotation. If Lorenzen is on a shorter pitch count, he might be more likely to empty the tank with his strikeout stuff early and often.
In his final rehab start at Triple-A, Lorenzen punched out six batters on 89 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. Lorenzen wasn't untouchable in the start as he gave up four earned runs, but the strikeout stuff was there.
If you visit Covers' MLB prop projections, you will see that Lorenzen is projected to have 4.5 strikeouts tonight. With this projection, we can price Lorenzen at -182 to go Over the total of 3.5 strikeouts, but Caesars is trading it at -135, offering us a positive expected value.
Rangers vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael Lorenzen Over 3.5 strikeouts
Rangers moneyline
Evan Carter Over 1.5 total bases
If Lorenzen is going to surpass his total of 3.5 strikeouts, we're looking for innings and to avoid getting roughed up by the Tigers offense early, ensuring as many pitches as possible. For that reason, I'm pairing the Rangers moneyline with the Over on his strikeouts because if the Tigers jump out to an early lead, we probably won't win the strikeouts bet on Lorenzen.
If the Rangers are going to win, we'll need some offense, and I'm looking at center fielder Evan Carter. Carter went yard on Sunday against the Houston Astros, and our MLB projections powered by EV Analytics love the price we are getting on Carter going Over 1.5 total bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Tigers odds
Rangers vs Tigers live odds
Rangers vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Texas -1.5 (+142) | Detroit +1.5 (-172)
- Moneyline: Texas (-116) | Detroit (-102)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-120)
Rangers vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers opened as a -116 favorite on the moneyline, but we have seen this number move towards the Tigers, who are now trading as the favorite at FanDuel at -118.
- The total opened at FanDuel at 9, and we have seen it drop down to 8.5.
- It'll be nice weather in Detroit on Monday, with temperatures at 68 degrees and a 9 mph wind blowing out to left field.
Rangers vs Tigers trend
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 99 games (+12.30 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Tigers
Rangers vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Detroit, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Michael Lorenzen (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Reese Olson (0-1, 5.40 ERA) |
Rangers vs Tigers latest injuries
Rangers vs Tigers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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