Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Yamamoto Struggles to Find Zone

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up the two-game Seoul Series on Thursday morning following the Dodgers’ come-from-behind 5-2 win on Wednesday.

L.A.’s newcomer, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, will make his MLB debut as a -190 favorite in the MLB odds while the Friars will counter with Joe Musgrove in the Gocheok SkyDome.

With zero extra-base hits yesterday in an indoor setting that actually looks to suppress runs, combined with a pitching matchup that has a lot of question marks, is looking at pitcher props the best avenue heading into another rise-and-shine game?

Find out where my best bets lie in my free MLB picks for the Dodgers vs. Padres, on Thursday, March 20.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

Playing games in a new park and not an MLB stadium can be an adventure for some pitchers who are finicky people by habit. Bettors saw a lead-off walk from Mookie Betts vs. Yu Darvish, who finished with three walks and three strikeouts after closing with an Over 1.5 walk total priced at -165.

Darvish threw 58% of his pitches for strikes which is in sharp contrast to his 65% rate a season ago. Tyler Glasnow also had some issues — especially in the fourth inning where he walked two straight batters to begin the frame. His Over 1.5 walk total was paying -125 and he finished with four over five frames, throwing 61% of his pitches for strikes compared to his 66% rate last season.

That has me hitting the Over 1.5 walks on rookie pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a couple of reasons.

He'll be amped up for this game in his backyard and getting his command early could be more difficult than usual, especially after an ugly Spring where he walked four batters over 9 2/3 innings.

He's known as an elite command pitcher which is why the line is priced where it is, but because his secondary pitches are a splitter and curveball, if batters are spitting on those low offerings he could walk a pair or more over what I’d expect to be a 70-80-pitch leash.

The San Diego Padres also finished with the No. 1 walk rate in 2023 at 10.6%, so this isn't an easy lineup to move through and one that takes a lot of pitches.

There are another couple of subjective angles including the lack of familiarity batters have vs. the first-year pitcher, so the hitters will be more likely to see pitches and the other one is the park factor. There were no extra-base hits yesterday and the Gocheok Sky Dome swallowed everything up.

It’s a low-elevation facility that has big fences and doesn't give up a lot of HR during the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) season. This could lead to a more conservative approach at the plate if the teams know they can’t hit alleys all day.

There are a lot of moving parts for Yamamoto’s first start and I can see some high pitch counts that hopefully lead to free passes vs. a team that loves to walk. 

My best bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 walks allowed (-130 at Bet99)

Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 walks

Joe Musgrove Over 1.5 walks

Padres moneyline

+625 at bet365

Both starting pitchers yesterday fought the strike zone, and Game 2's pitchers have bigger question marks entering the game with inexperience and injury recovery. Whether it was the mound or something else, starting pitching was not efficient in the opener and both of today's starters battled it in the Spring.

If Joe Musgrove is anything like he's been at the beginning of the last two seasons, that's a pitcher I can back at big plus money. The Padres should have won yesterday and they have a left-handed-heavy bullpen that can win the later innings. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers opened as long as -165 for the second meeting but have since moved to pretty much -180/-185 across the board after closing at -200 on Wednesday morning. The total of 8.5 (+100 to the Under) has been fairly steady after closing at 8.5 yesterday.

My biggest takeaway from the opener was the park is playing much more in favor of the pitchers than I anticipated. The balls aren’t traveling at the low elevation and almost no balls were hit more than 350 feet. All the hard-hit balls seemingly were pulled down the line. 

Another takeaway was the strength of both bullpens. The Padres are loaded with lefty arms which is a great matchup for a Dodgers lineup that featured just three right-handed hitters. Max Muncy looked lost at the dish despite a single in his first at-bat that left the bat at 76 mph. The Dodgers’ RPs went four frames allowing zero runs on two hits with no walks, and all of those arms will likely be available today. 

I love the Under 8.5 at +100 but am scared to hit it because of the unknowns of the starting pitching. Yamamoto has never pitched and was not great in the Spring, pitching to an 8.38 ERA with a near-2.00 WHIP. He'll likely be an elite pitcher, but he still has a lot of things to work through before he can be as effective a pitcher as he was in Japan. 

Musgrove also looked a little shaky in the Spring but settled down in his latest start which is good news as his 2023 season ended early due to injury. If he's on and Yamamoto struggles, the Padres +160 ML could be a steal. It was looking good Wednesday until things unraveled in the eighth when San Diego was up 2-1. 

The bottom of the Padres’ lineup isn’t bad and rookie Jackson Merrill looked like he belonged and could turn over this SD order that has Xander Bogaerts leading off. I’m leaning on the Under 8.5, but I like the Padres on the ML at +155 or better. 

Trend to know

The Dodgers went 9-4 vs. the Padres in 2023, outscoring them by 22 runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Musgrove continues to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball. He is coming off his third-straight sub-3.20 ERA season of the year but was shut down late in the season with a shoulder issue and has been hit hard in the Spring. He rebounded in his final start going 4 1/3 innings with one run on two hits but still gave up nine total runs on five hits and four walks over 6.0 IP in warm-ups.  

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Yamamoto will make his first MLB start after signing the biggest pitching contract in league history. The Japanese right-hander with a mid-90s fastball and some plus secondary pitches didn’t have a great Spring and allowed nine runs on 14 hits over his last two games that lasted 7 2/3 innings. He struck out 11 and walked four. His track record of excelling is much larger than his Spring resume.

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