The Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park tonight. The Cubs are 16-9 and aim to make the postseason for the first time since 2020, while the Red Sox are two games above .500 in the highly competitive AL East.
MLB odds for this interleague showdown have this game as a pick'em with the Over/Under at 7.5. Here are my best free Cubs vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for April 26.
Cubs vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 4 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Both the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox are sending red-hot starters to the mound today.
Boston's Kutter Crawford is having a breakout season, pitching to an incredible 0.66 ERA with an OBA of .163 through five starts. Meanwhile, Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga has seamlessly transitioned from Japan to the majors and has a 0.84 ERA with a .175 OBA in four starts.
Although Imanaga is coming off an outing against the Marlins where he allowed three runs (two earned) through six innings, he didn't allow a single run in the first three starts of his MLB career.
While the Cubs have been generating runs, they are batting just .236 and slugging .387 against right-handed pitchers like Crawford. Injuries to key bats like Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki certainly won't help.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 20th in the majors in batting average (.236), with that number plummeting to .198 at Fenway.
While regression is inevitable for both pitchers, their xERA numbers (3.35 for Imanaga and 2.60 for Crawford) indicate that we shouldn't see too much dropoff. Expect a lower-scoring start to this contest and take the Under on the first five innings.
Cubs vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Under 3.5
Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 walks
Matt Mervis Under 0.5 runs
Imanaga hasn't walked a single batter in three of his four starts. He's in the Top 5 percentile of pitchers in walk rate, while the Red Sox are 17th in the majors in walk rate (8.6%), with that number dropping to just 2.6% over their last three games.
Matt Mervis has a bright future and entered this season as the No. 13 prospect in the Cubs system, but he hasn't shown the ability to contribute at this level so far. Mervis had a .167 batting average with eight runs in 27 games last year, and he's 0-6 at the dish this season after getting the call-up on Tuesday. The 26-year-old will bat near the bottom of the order, and that combined with Crawford's red-hot play makes it unlikely that he'll plate a run.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Red Sox odds
Cubs vs Red Sox live odds
Cubs vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-220) | Boston -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Chicago -105 | Boston -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Cubs vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- While the moneyline has barely moved, the total has dropped from 8 to 7.5, which isn't surprising given how well these starters have been performing.
- The Red Sox are just 3-7 straight up at Fenway Park this season.
- The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep of the Astros and have gone 16-7 in their last 23 games.
- Rafael Devers began the season mired in a slump but has broken out by going 6-for-9 at the plate over the last two games.
Cubs vs Red Sox trend
The Under is 29-20 in the Cubs' last 49 games and 27-20 in Boston's previous 47 contests at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Red Sox
Cubs vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, NESN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (3-0, 0.84 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (1-0, 0.66 ERA) |
Cubs vs Red Sox latest injuries
Cubs vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
