The Los Angeles Dodgers are the National League West team that got all the offseason hype, and deservedly so. But it is the Arizona Diamondbacks who won the NL Pennant which included a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in the Divisional round.
Tonight's Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions focus on renewing hostilities when these teams meet for the first time since that series.
I break it all down and give my best free MLB picks for Monday, April 29.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks Alt 5-Inning Runline -0.5 (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers were unceremoniously snuffed out of the National League postseason thanks to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
So, the Dodgers went out and did what the Dodgers do. Sign star players and they got the two biggest of the offseason in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Los Angeles has done pretty much what you would expect with the roster they’ve constructed. The Dodgers enter this game at 18-12 with a +38 run differential.
Meanwhile, it’s been a bit of a slow start for the reigning NL champs. The D-backs are just 13-16 but their +29 run differential paints a picture of a team capable of turning things around quickly. Maybe even as live home underdogs in tonight’s matchup against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers weren’t the only team to improve their roster this offseason. While the moves weren’t as splashy as the L.A.’s, there is no doubt Arizona improved its roster.
After acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson the D-backs lineup is now sneaky good and one with no holes. No places for pitchers to rest. They’ve been particularly dangerous against left-handed pitchers.
Arizona leads the majors in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ vs. lefties this season and wouldn’t you know it, they’ll dig in against Dodgers’ lefty James Paxton.
Paxton’s first year in Dodger Blue has gotten off to a solid start, pitching to a 2.61 ERA. However, the southpaw has been a little lucky and some regression may be in his future. Paxton’s expected ERA is sitting at 5.33 while his strikeout and walk rate are in the Bottom 5% of the big leagues.
The D-backs counter Paxton with a lefty of their own in Tommy Henry. The 26-year-old’s results have been mixed this season but he’s had a solid start vs. the Atlanta Braves and is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the St. Louis Cardinals to one run on five hits over six innings.
With just being kind of good vs. lefties (10th wRC+) I like the odds of the Diamondbacks having the lead through five innings in this one.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks -0.5 F5 alt runline
Over 5.5 F5
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 RBIs
The Diamondbacks holding the lead isn’t the only thing I like through five innings in this matchup. With Tommy Henry also having an expected ERA north of 5.00 and going against arguably the most stacked lineup in all of baseball, there should be a decent amount of scoring in this one. So, let’s add Over 5.5 runs in the first five innings as well.
And you know someone who will contribute to those runs being scored? You’ve got it. Shohei Ohtani.
The two-time MVP may not be pitching this season, but he might be dominant enough at the dish alone to get some MVP consideration this year as well. Ohtani is crushing it in his first season in L.A. The Dodgers’ slugger is hitting .336 with a 1.038 OPS and 18 runs batted in.
He has driven in a run in six of his last nine games and is one of the few Dodgers with experience against Henry. That experience? One for two with a home run.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Ohtani at 0.8 RBIs tonight, so let’s close this SGP out with him to go Over 0.5 RBIs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 +110 | Arizona +1.5 -130
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -150 | Arizona +125
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened this matchup as -150 road favorites but the Diamondbacks have seen the the majority of the action so far with L.A. now sitting at the -130 range.
- As noted, James Paxton is due for a regression, while the Diamondbacks crush lefties and are playing at home, so it's easy to see why early bettors think there is value in Arizona.
- The total hit the board at 9.5 and early bettors jumped on the Over with the current number at 10.5.
- It's not surprising when both starting pitchers have xERA's north of 5.00 going against two lineups more than capable of cashing in runs.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games for +9.29 Units and a 13% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (2-0, 2.61 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Tommy Henry (1-1, 5.55 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
