The Philadelphia Phillies will go for a third straight win over the rival New York Mets on Wednesday night and the MLB odds like their chances as Philly hands the ball to one of the best pitchers in baseball this season — Ranger Suarez.
My Mets vs. Phillies predictions look at whether New York will be able to generate any offense against the sharp southpaw.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 hits allowed (-120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies look like a team motivated to finish what they started with the ultimate goal being a World Series title. The lineup is dangerous and daunting while the rotation has the betting favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award in Zack Wheeler. But you can make the case Wheeler hasn’t even been the best starter on his own team. Ranger Suarez has been solid for the Phillies for a few years now, but what he is doing in 2024 is next level.
The 28-year-old left-hander has looked like one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball so far this season. Suarez uses a mix of five pitches, including a sinker to create a ton of soft contact. His 2.21 expected ERA is in the 95th percentile. He is also in the Top 10% when it comes to opponent expected batting average, expected slugging, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. Oh, and he is also striking out 28.1% of batters faced.
Like I said, unhittable.
Today, he takes the mound against the suddenly slumping New York Mets. The Mets have dropped seven of their last 10 games and southpaws have been giving them issues all season long. New York ranks 22nd in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 19th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.
Suarez has also given them plenty of problems in the past. Current Mets hitters have a combined .212 batting average and a .338 SLG against the Phillies lefty.
That has me looking at the hits allowed prop for Suarez, which is sitting at 5.5 for this matchup. Suarez has only gone Over this number twice in his eight starts this season. He’s held opposing teams to four hits or fewer in the other six.
In a matchup against the Mets, I’m betting today’s performance is more like the latter.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 hits allowed
Phillies moneyline
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI
My thinking here is that Suarez will provide the pitching while Bryce Harper fuels the offense on the way to a Phillies win in this National League East rivalry.
The Mets counter Suarez with a left-hander of their own in Joey Lucchesi. The 30-year-old southpaw didn’t make the team out of camp and was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse. But he has performed well in the minors, pitching to a 2.58 ERA over seven starts and earned his first MLB start of the season.
Unfortunately for Lucceshi, he’s getting thrown to the wolves here, having to combat one of the big leagues’ best lineups. The Phillies rank seventh in batting average and ninth in both OPS and wRC+ vs. lefties this season.
The Lucceshi lefty-lefty matchup is also one of the reasons we are getting good value with a Bryce Harper RBI. The Phillies slugger has driven in 29 runs already this season and has solid splits vs. lefties with a .255 batting average and a .745 OPS.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies live odds
Mets vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-130) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: New York +160 | Philadelphia -190
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened this NL East matchup as sizeable -190 favorites but that hasn't scared off bettors, as Philly is now as high as -205.
- The Phillies have had the Mets' number recently, winning eight of the last 10 matchups including the first two games of this series.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and has been bet down to 7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- I would lean Under even at this new number as I am not confident the Mets will be able to get much going against Suarez tonight. The Under is 5-3 in his starts this season.
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Mets vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 27 games for +14.70 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Joey Lucchesi (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (7-0, 1.50 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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