The Los Angeles Dodgers go for the road sweep of their rivals as they face the San Francisco Giants tonight at Oracle Park.
San Francisco ace Logan Webb hopes to stop the bleeding, whereas Los Angeles is going with a bullpen game. My Dodgers vs. Giants predictions aren't scared of the Under on the 7.5 total.
Read on for my best bet where I take a closer look at the total and provide my full MLB picks for Wednesday, May 15.
Dodgers vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Even if he hasn’t pitched like one lately, Logan Webb is the San Francisco Giants' undisputed ace. The veteran hurler was tagged for four earned runs in back-to-back starts against Boston and Philadelphia before settling down and holding Cincinnati to two across seven innings of work in his last start.
I’m not too concerned with the bump in the road and am counting on Webb being one of the game’s most reliable starting pitchers, just as he has been in recent years. His ERA has finished at 3.25 or below in three straight years and his FIP has never exceeded 3.16.
This year, his FIP sits at 2.89, which is a good sign. He’s surrendered a .347 BABIP, which can be blamed for some of the damage and is such an inflated number that we should see a decrease sooner or later. Less contact should start going for hits, and Webb has been great at home in his career, so I’m a buyer.
His offerings are still nasty as he ranks 10th among qualified starters in Stuff+ (113). He’s generally been able to induce soft contact and his 5.9% barrel rate is in line with his 6% career average. Therefore, I believe his 14th percentile average exit velocity (90.6 mph) is due to a small sample and should normalize at some point.
On the flip side, Dave Roberts will turn to his relievers for a bullpen game to give his starters some extra rest. That’s an understandable move considering the sheer amount of injuries in the rotation. Dodgers relievers have the league’s fourth-lowest ERA (3.08) and second-lowest WHIP (1.04), so they’re still in good hands.
San Francisco’s lineup is decimated by injuries with regulars Patrick Bailey, Jung Hoo Lee, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler, Austin Slater, and Nick Ahmed all banged up. The Giants have been held to three runs or fewer in 13 of their last 19 games.
With the Giants' ace on the mound and their bats depressingly bad at the dish lately, give me the Under.
Dodgers vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Will Smith Under 1.5 total bases
Logan Webb Over 4.5 strikeouts
Dodgers catcher Will Smith has struggled vs. his rival's ace, going 4-for-20 with six strikeouts and a .633 OPS against Webb for his career.
Webb has always pitched much better at home than on the road, and that’s been true this year as his 1.24 ERA at Oracle is vastly different than his 5.92 road ERA. In his career, he’s averaged nearly half a strikeout more per nine innings at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Giants odds
Dodgers vs Giants live odds
Dodgers vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | San Francisco +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -135 | San Francisco +115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Dodgers vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- Webb is a much better pitcher at home where he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 358 2/3 career innings.
- Five of the last seven games with Webb as the starter have finished with fewer than seven combined runs being scored.
- San Francisco is 7-13-1 O/U at Oracle Park while LA is 8-13 O/U on the road.
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Dodgers vs Giants trend
The Giants have scored three runs or fewer in 13 of their last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Giants.
Dodgers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, NBCSBA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | TBD |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (3-4, 3.38 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Giants latest injuries
Dodgers vs Giants weather
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