Where the action is: Are sharps inflating OU-Baylor line to buy back Sooners?

Nov 7, 2013 |
Thursday night is a huge night for college football fans. Bettors are treated to two key conference clashes featuring Top 25 teams. The Oklahoma Sooners visit the Baylor Bears in Waco for a Big 12 bash in the first of these two marquee matchups.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears – Open: -13.5, Move: -15

Baylor has cruised through a soft schedule so far and meets its first true test in Oklahoma Thursday. Early action was on the home side, with sharps surprisingly grabbing Baylor and jacking up the spread as high as -15 at some markets.

CarbonSports.ag is currently sitting at BU -14.5, with good two-way action on this Big 12 battle. However, Stewart has a sneaking suspicion that the early action from wiseguys was meant to drive this line over the key number and that they will eventually buy back the Sooners before kickoff.

“I believe the early sharp action was made at -14 because they felt this line would close higher due to the public betting up Baylor like they have all week,” Stewart tells Covers. “So they lay the -14 and can either get off later in the week or keep their bet at a good number. At this point I have no clue, I just know we're booking this game dead even so far which is great for us.”

Stewart does say the book is a little scared when it comes to the total for Thursday’s game in Waco. The number opened as low as 72.5 at some markets and has climbed as high as 74.5 points, which is the current total CarbonSport.ag is dealing.

“Where we're seeing a ton of exposure is on the Over,” says Stewart. “So far 75 percent of the money is on the Over and we can't see much money being bet on this game Under as both teams love to spread the field and throw the ball.”

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