UFC 301 Pereira vs Potieria Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Pereira Not Paid By the Hour

Tonight’s UFC 301 main card in Brazil features a middleweight bout between two unranked contenders trying to make a name for themselves: Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria.

UFC odds have Pereira as a massive betting favorite at -556, while Potieria returns at +450. Here are my free betting picks for Pereira vs. Potieria at tonight’s UFC event in Rio.

Pereira vs Potieria prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pereira ML (-650 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pereira by KO/TKO (-130 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Michel Pereira is a massive favorite in this matchup, and for good reason. He enters this bout amidst a seven-fight win streak, with each of the past two coming just a minute into the first round.

A win on Saturday will undoubtedly propel Pereira into the Top 15 rankings of the middleweight division, somewhere he should arguably be right now anyway. On the other hand, Potieria has lost three of his past five fights with all three losses coming when priced as the underdog.

The most concerning aspect of those three losses is that all three came by knockout. Potieria’s chin is starting to fail him, and that is a recipe for disaster against a striker with as much power as Pereira.

That is exactly why Pereira is trending toward the six-dollar mark on the moneyline, which is just not a price we want to target him at. Instead, we will get a little more creative below to find a way to back the heavy favorite at a more favorable number.

Best best analysis

Instead of laying -650 on Pereira’s moneyline, we can back him to knock out Potieria at a much lighter price of –130. A KO/TKO finish is easily Pereira’s most likely path to victory.

You don’t have to take my word for it, as Pereira’s submission prop is +290 while his decision prop is +510. Potieria has never tapped across 26 professional fights (or his three amateur fights).

He has though, as mentioned above, been knocked out in each of his past three losses. Pereira is a vicious striker with 11 professional KO/TKO victories, and if Potieria is not to pull off the monster upset, then I don’t think his chin is able to survive for three rounds.

This fight is likely to stay on the feet as both guys prefer to stand and bang. Again, this gives an edge to Pereira.

The one concern in a striking match between these two is Pereira is surrendering two inches in height and reach to the southpaw. However, that just means Pereira will have to get into the pocket, which increases the knockout potential for either side as things get uglier the closer the strikers are.

Could Potieria catch Pereira? It’s not impossible, but Pereira has been knocked out just once across 43 professional fights, and that was nearly six years ago.

At the same time, oddsmakers are expecting a quick finish as the “Under 1.5 rounds” prop is -160. If we are getting a quick finish between these two, who do you think is more likely to be the one to do it?

The answer seems clear to be Pereira in this spot.

Pereira vs Potieria odds

Method of Victory	Pereira	Potieria
To win outright	-650	+405
To win by KO/TKO	-130	+850
To win by points	+475	+1,500
To win by submission	+290	+2,900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-4-2024.

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Pereira vs Potieria tale of the tape

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