College Four-Play: Week 1 predictions

Jon Campbell
LSU’s Tiger Stadium is a place of legendary intimidation. It’s the kind of atmosphere where 92,000 strong literally make the ground shake and even sometimes, opponents.

So it’s not much of a surprise to anyone who knows even a little about college football that LSU enters this season with the longest home winning streak at 17 games. In that time, the Tigers have outscored their opponents 598-215.

You’d think that would mean easy money.

Not so.

In fact, LSU is just 7-10 ATS (against the spread) during the streak and it is the absolute worst home bet of any of the five schools with the best home winning streaks in the land - and it’s not even close.  

The other four schools are at least five games above .500, all fantastic teams to wager on at home over the past couple of years. The list of the top five home streaks looks like this:

1. LSU 17-0, 7-10 ATS
2. Wisconsin 16-0, 12-3-1 ATS
3. Northern Illinois 15-0, 10-5 ATS
4. Michigan State 14-0, 9-5 ATS
5. Arkansas 10-0, 9-1 ATS

Those Arkansas and Wisconsin numbers are the kind that make boosters giggle. Sparty and oft-forgotten Northern Illinois are nothing to scoff at either. LSU’s record, meanwhile, looks pretty horrible when you put it up against the others. 

That’s not to say you should run out and pound North Texas at +44 Saturday night like your season’s bankroll depends on it. But there’s definitely something here in terms of inflated lines and the hype LSU gets at home – especially for night games.

Pick: North Texas +44

Florida International at Duke (-2.5, 54)

Good ol’ fashioned shootout between two powerhouses.

Pick: Over 54

Navy vs. Notre Dame (in Dublin) (-15, 52.5)

The Irish take themselves way too seriously sometimes. Notre Dame, that is.

They’re banning radio host Allen Pinkett because he said the team needs a few “bad citizens” to give the team an edge. Not “mass murderers or rapists” or anything, but the kind of guys who are going to “cuss in public and don’t mind the repercussions of it.”

The Irish could’ve easily ignored the comments or laughed them off and it would be forgotten in a day. Instead, they’ve banned him from Saturday’s broadcast and now it’s a major national story.

Because that’s what Notre Dame needs right now, is more distractions. Still, they oughtta cover.

Pick: Notre Dame -15

Ohio at Penn State (-6.5, 44)

I hate what’s gone on at Penn State as much as anyone. But it’s still Penn State and as long as there’s no “State” on the end of that “Ohio”, this one looks like a gift.

Pick: Penn State -6.5

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Posted by SamRuby
3 years ago

No "Gifts" this year with P State. They could go winless...

Posted by Quantum_Leap
3 years ago

"this one looks like a gift." "gift" comes from germanic language and means "poison."

Posted by nc1capper
3 years ago

Looks like a lovely, albeit , square card, good luck - middies cover
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Top Response

Posted by Quantum_Leap
3 years ago

""this one looks like a gift." "gift" comes from germanic language and means "poison." "

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