Survival guide to betting college football in November

November can be nasty.
 
It is notorious for its tightening lines and enticing mid-week TV games. It can suck profit out of any bankroll, especially fat ones that are drooling after an early-season feast.

Greed, my betting friends, is one of the seven deadly sins. For those of you who are up, it’s time to protect your winnings like it’s your last bottle of hooch. For those of you in my boat who are down, November is not the time to play catch-up. Let’s survive the season’s most difficult month and then make some during bowl season.

But how? How do we survive a nasty November?

The answer may lie in the under-appreciated middle.

Who’s playing middles?

For you newbies, middling is simply placing a bet on both sides of a game before and after a significant line move. For example, you bet the favorite at -6.5 and, if the line jumps to 7.5, you take the underdog.

You’re risking just the juice in hopes of the game ending with the favorite winning by seven; therefore, making both of your tickets winners.

Odds are you’ll win one side, lose the other and end up down the juice. 
That’s why books aren’t overly concerned with middles.

Professional handicappers like Covers Expert Marc Lawrence don’t expend much effort trying to middle games, either.

“The games that I do end up with middles on are those where injuries or line movements caused me to get off of a game,” Lawrence said. “Most professionals do not look to middle games. Instead, they look to find the best number to their handicap.”

Michael Perry, a bookmanager at Logan’s.com, points out that, because lines get tighter as the season progresses, there are fewer significant line moves in November compared to September.

“I think towards the end of the football season, we see a lot more middle opportunities with totals than on sides, largely because of the weather,” added Perry.

But, to me, betting college football in November is all about minimizing risk, not necessarily advancement.

Cutting back on the number of your wagers is also a good idea, but it’s not nearly as fun.

That’s why middles make more sense to me right now.

Attempting to middle a few games each week allows me to get the amount of action I crave while only risking the juice. At -110 juice, I only need to hit one middle in 19 attempts to make a profit.

That’s easier said than done, for sure, but there are a few ways to increase your chances of nailing a middle.

Plus, if lines truly get tighter in November, games should start ending up with final scores closer to the pointspread. And that’s exactly what we’re hoping for when playing middles.

What games are the best to middle?

Lawrence and Perry agree –  November’s tighter lines equal less line movements.

But there are still plenty of games that will cross key numbers and have middle potential in the coming month.

Obviously, we’re looking for games with middles that include key numbers like 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21, etc. If we can get on both sides of one of those numbers, our odds increase greatly.

According to Covers.com’s live odds, nine games on this week’s card had already moved across a key number as of Wednesday. That number will certainly grow by Saturday.

The key is getting a good read on which way a line is going to move.

Usually taking a popular favorite like USC, Florida or Alabama early in the week will produce a middle opportunity, after the public bets up the line. But that wasn’t the case in last week’s Tennessee-Alabama game. The Crimson Tide opened as a 16.5-point favorite but was quickly bet down to 14.

“The situation surrounding big favorites is a critical factor in trying to determine line movement,” explained Lawrence. “In Alabama's case, they were facing a defensively staunch conference rival and the Tide had struggles the game before against South Carolina.  There was no need for the money to heavily support Alabama.  It's when popular public teams are coming off impressive wins (and covers) that the support begins.”

Let’s try it …

Throughout November editions of Cram Session, I will point out games on the following week’s schedule that could provide a middling opportunity. I will add my middle plays to Payneful Picks below and we will see if I can hit a minimum of one out of 19 plays.

Next week, I am expecting a middle opportunity in the game involving the winner of the USC-Oregon game.

The Ducks are at Arizona State and USC is at Stanford next Saturday.

If you’ve got middle suggestions or just want to tell me this is a ridiculous strategy, feel free to post in the comment sections.

Best and worst November ATS teams for last five years

(courtesy of Pete Dunbrack, the Database Dude)

Best

Virginia Tech – 13-5

Boise State – 13-5-2

Utah – 12-4

Rice – 13-6

Purdue – 12-5

Florida – 12-5

Southern Cal – 12-5

Worst

Indiana – 4-11-1

Wyoming – 5-12

Washington – 5-12

UTEP – 6-13

Maryland – 6-12

Oklahoma St. – 6-12

Interested in gaining access to the Covers’ database? Click here.

How the early money’s doing

We’re tracking big early line moves this season to pinpoint what most experts say is sharp money.

Season: Sharps 12, Books 15

Last week: Sharps 2, Books 2 (1 push)

Open: Louisiana Tech (-1.5) at Utah State. Wednesday line: Utah State -2. Final score: Utah State 23, La. Tech 21.

Open: Oregon (-7) at Washington. Wednesday line: Oregon -10. Final score: Oregon 43, Washington 19.

Open: Idaho at Nevada (-12.5). Wednesday line: Nevada -15.5. Final score: Nevada 70, Idaho 45.

Open Auburn at LSU (-11). Wednesday line: LSU -7.5. Final score: LSU 31, Auburn 10.

Open: UNLV (-4.5) at New Mexico. Wednesday line: New Mexico -1. Final score: UNLV 34, New Mexico 17.

This week

Open: New Mexico State at Ohio State (-39.5). Wednesday line: Ohio State (-45).

Open: San Jose State at Boise State (-32). Wednesday line: Boise State (-35).

Open: Eastern Michigan at Arkansas (-35). Wednesday line: Arkansas (-38).

Open: Kansas State at Oklahoma (-24.5). Wednesday line: Oklahoma (-28).

Payneful Picks

Last week: 2-2

Season: 13-17-3 (Sigh).

New Mexico at San Diego State (-16)

Pick: San Diego State -16

Ohio (-6.5) at Ball State

Pick: Ohio -6.5

Western Michigan at Ken State (-2.5)

Pick: WMU +2.5

Washington State at Notre Dame (-27.5)

Pick: Notre Dame -27.5

Best of luck everyone. You can follow me on Twitter at Payne_Covers.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Posted by tallguyindc
5 years ago

This article is a tad on the ridiculous side. It leaves out the most obvious risk... What happens when you place your initial bet and the line moves the other way... You are left holding a bet on a team you never believed in with a line that is now highly unfavorable. You could hedge your bets by betting the other way even after the line moved against you. Now, not only are you guaranteed to lose the juice, you are in significant danger of losing both bets as well. You could let it ride with the now unfavorable line, but you really need to account for the fact that you aren't likely to break even or even come close on these bets. Statements like "At -110 juice, I only need to hit one middle in 19 attempts to make a profit." assume that you successfully place the middle bets every single time and lose nothing on the games where the line moves against you. This isn't a very realistic assumption. "The key is getting a good read on which way a line is going to move." Way easier said than done. If you have this ability to know this, you shouldn't bother middling. You should just use this obviously superior knowledge of sports in order to get the best bets in on the right side. Remember that books would prefer not to move lines for a variety of reasons. The initial line is their best estimate of where the line will eventually end up. Trust me, the thing about big public teams....don't you think the linemakers considered this and accounted for it before they put out the initial lines. "What is the purpose in using multiple books? Because they don't all have the line at the same time?" Yes....This is the exception to the rule. If two books are offering different odds at the same time and the odds of hitting the middle are greater than 5%, you should bet the middle. But they need to be offering significantly different odds now. Honestly, this doesn't happen often and one of the lines is probably about to move, so I would be careful if I had to physically move between the books. Or because they frown on you betting both sides of a game? Are you kidding, books love it when you bet both sides of a game. It doubles their juice and actually cuts their risk at the same time.
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Posted by Rogue
5 years ago

What is the purpose in using multiple books? Because they don't all have the line at the same time? Or because they frown on you betting both sides of a game?
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Posted by MorningView
5 years ago

Another tip would be to use multiple books.
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Posted by Jon_Campbell
5 years ago

Yeah, you guys hit it - college hoops totals are the way to middle, but there is definitely value in football too. Great piece, as usual, DP. Cheers
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Posted by bej0101
5 years ago

if the lines are that tight why not use teasers..i do..and win often..
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Posted by David_Payne
5 years ago

Thanks, Greekdude ... BOL this weekend. Maestro ... Middles in college basketball totals, especially toward the end of the season are great. Similar to football, you don't get as big of line movements late as you do early in the season, but the games usually finish around the number. I bet it was nice to walk down the Strip with your bankroll in your pocket instead of having to split up at so many online books. Get 'em this weekend.
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Posted by Maestro664
5 years ago

Good stuff - I have been playing middles for quite sometime now - heck you used to have to walk down one side of the strip write em all down and then hurry back to catch the middles before they move again - college basketball I have the most success in over last ten years average around 1 in 14 - It is a great fix and no better fealing than the win win or push win - both show the $ Maestro - NFL middle last week in the SF/Houston game worked our way
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Posted by Greekdude
5 years ago

nice stratiges and great info
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Posted by David_Payne
5 years ago

You got, Tim ... The Pumpkins peaked with Siamese Dream, but it sure was good peak! Thanks for reading ... DP
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Top Response

Posted by David_Payne
5 years ago

"You got, Tim ... The Pumpkins peaked with Siamese Dream, but it sure was good peak! Thanks for reading ... DP"