Big East tourney analysis and picks: Round 1

Just when my couch sores were starting to heal from covering every minute of last week’s Missouri Conference Tournament, championship week arrives.

 

I’ll be glued to my sofa once again this week to bring you all the analysis and picks for the Big East tournament and provide some insight heading into the NCAA Tournament. The top 12 teams in the conference meet in New York as usual, and action begins Wednesday at noon at Madison Square Garden.

 

Last week the couch potato-ing seemed to help. I went 6-3 with my MVC plays and hopefully made us both a little money.

 

Back to the potato patch I go….

 

Syracuse (9)  vs. Villanova (8)

Odds: +1 1/2, 148

Game time: 12 p.m. ET on ESPN

 

This should be a nasty little game that will start the tournament off with a bang. Cuse and Nova split their meetings SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) this season, oddly with the visiting team winning each game by double digits.  

 

Both teams are loaded with underclassmen with only one senior between them. Cuse has more talent though, with freshman guard Jonny Flynn, sophomore guard Paul Harris, and freshman forward Donte Greene all earning Big East honors.

 

But Nova has been tough down the final stretch. The Wildcats have been helped lately by moving junior forward Dwayne Anderson to the starting lineup. He has 10.1 points and 8.1 boards since becoming a starter and the Cats are 6-3 SU and ATS during that span. The defense also improved dramatically down the stretch, as you can see by their nine unders in their last 10 games.

 

They’ll need to stop an Orange scoring offense that ranked No. 2 in the conference.

 

Pick: Cuse -1 1/2

 

Providence (12) vs. West Virginia (5)

Odds: West Virginia -8 1/2, 139 

Game time: 2 p.m. ET on ESPN

 

This will be the third time in a row the Friars have met WVA in the first round after showdowns in 2005 and 2007. That’s not good considering Providence was hammered by the Mountaineers as small dogs by a combined 36 points in those meetings.

 

The Friars lost both of this year’s meetings by double digits too, so they’re in tough on Wednesday. They also just lost starting guard Dwain Williams for the season to an ankle injury, which leaves them without his 11 points and 2.2 assists per game.

 

West Virginia has the best scoring margin (+13.3) and best turnover margin (+5.39) so they’ll be a tough opponent throughout the tourney. Watch for do-everything forward Joe Alexander, who can pretty much do everything and even hit the trey. He is the reigning Big East player of the week after a 32-point game and a 29-point game last week.

 

Pick:  West Virginia -8 1/2

 

Cincinnati (10) vs. Pittsburgh (7)

Odds: Pittsburgh -8 1/2, 129 1/2

Game time: 7 p.m. ET

 

Pitt has made it to six of the last seven Big East finals, so the Panthers need to be taken seriously. MSG has been good to them this season, where they’ve won two games already (vs. Duke and St. John’s).

 

What hasn’t been good to them is Cincy - at least from a bettor’s perspective. The Bearcats covered the spread in both meetings with Pitt this season and won the first one outright, 62-69.

 

Cincy enters on a five-game losing streak on Wednesday, which includes a loss to Pitt, and the Cats have failed to cover in five of their last six games. The issue has been offense. Cincinnati hasn’t shot better than 40 percent from the field very often and it ranks 14th in the Big East in scoring.

 

That's not usually a problem for Pitt, which is shooting 48 percent from the field over its last five and has All-Big East teamer Sam Young on the floor (18 ppg). The Panthers defense has been sad lately though, where they’re allowing opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the field. That might make the over worth a look here.

 

Pick: over 129 1/2

 

Seton Hall (11) vs. Marquette (6)

Odds: Marquette -10 1/2, 149 1/2

Game time: 9 p.m. ET on ESPN

 

Seton Hall doesn’t exactly come into the tournament bursting with confidence. The Pirates have only won two of their last 10 games (covering only three of them), and those wins came against a pair of teams that won’t be in New York (South Florida and Depaul).

 

Worse, the last game of the season could cause a hangover Wednesday. Hall lost on a last-second buzzer-beater to the Big East’s worst team, Rutgers, and now the conference is looking into comments made by Pirates coach Bobby Gonzalez about the officials.

 

About the only bright spot lately for Seton Hall is that Brian Laing was named an all-conference first teamer after finished second in league scoring (19 ppg).

 

Marquette has more balanced scoring with four players in double digits per game. The Eagles love to run the floor and force the tempo, but their inconsistent guard play has hurt them at times.    

 

Marquette ranks in the top five in the conference in scoring offense and defense. The Golden Eagles also beat Seton Hall twice this season, covering once. The most recent win was by 25 points. 

Pick: Marquette - 10 1/2

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Posted by TheosGame
6 years ago

West V didnt do eneogh to cover... the book took us in that one
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Posted by greecebucs
6 years ago

I like Pitt tonight, they should roll against Cincy!!!! Key to blow out: Cincy got snowed in on Saturday and had to play there game Sunday evening at Uconn, Cincy did not travel back home after the game in Uconn, plus Cincy has a roster full of players with no experience in MSG and Pitt loves to play there, with having 3 starters and one key reserve coming out of NY Pitt Rolls!!!!! I also like: RI over Cahrl Marq over SH Cal over Wash to cover the point spead Good luck everyone hammer the bookie tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted by WinnerHere2
6 years ago

Already locked in with WV -7.5 and will be taking Marq -10.5 hopefully drops to -10!
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Posted by TheosGame
6 years ago

West Virgina minus 8 to the Book Pay and hopefully make us all some Green! good luck players
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Posted by kstangel
6 years ago

Anybody ready to roll on the Cuse should be ready to loose...unless your boy jerry macnarmerry's gonna reappear, don't lay wood on the 2-3...
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Posted by Sh0rtStaCk
6 years ago

Dayton -8 (If Chris Wright Returns for the Tourney and picks up where he left off, watch out Xavier. If not, Could be ugly for Dayton). Syracuse -2 West Virginia -8 Marquette -10 California -2 (Key Injury on Washington)
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Posted by nflpicksexpert
6 years ago

Here are my top 4 for Wednesday . 1. UofA -19.5 2. Wyoming -6.5 3. Dayton -5.5 4. Arrrrgh...The Cuse SU..gonna be close to the end though I don't know about yall...but im betting games all day tomorrow... Jonny http://nflpicksexpert.blogspot.com
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Posted by SeattleWinner10
6 years ago

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Posted by mtr101
6 years ago

ey play of the day California
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Posted by primetime22
6 years ago

west virg + over syracuse marq
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Posted by Gee3
6 years ago

I think the OVER looks solid in the Seton Hall/Marquette game.Also another Marquette blowout might not be out of the question.
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Top Response

Posted by TheosGame
6 years ago

"West Virgina minus 8 to the Book Pay and hopefully make us all some Green! good luck players"