Inside the stats: Notre Dame Fighting Irish are leaking oil
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings:
Behind the 8-ball
Game 8 of the college football season is often a crossroads for teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed – and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.
According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and counted out, especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a paltry 14-96 SU and 38-69-3 ATS since 1980.
Better yet, bring them in against an opponent off back-to-back losses and they fall to 10-59 SU and 20-46-2 ATS. This week, we’ll be queuing up against California and Northwestern.
And faster than you can say “break ‘em”, if our qualified “play-against” Game 8 road dog arrives with a wobbly defense allowing 32.5 or more PPG on the season, they scratch like a poison-ivy infected boy scout, going 3-33 SU and 7-27-2 ATS, including 1-37 SU and 3-23-2 ATS as dog of eight or more points.
With that, look for the Bears to get “racked” this week.
Vinegar & oil
In keeping with our “leaking oil” theory (fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a rocky effort last week, these plays are now 8-15 ATS (6-10 CFB; 2-5 NFL) this season.
This week’s Exxon Mobil plays would be against: Louisiana Monroe and Notre Dame in college football, along with San Francisco in the NFL.
In the stats
As a follow up to last week’s accounting of teams that are 100 percent perfect “in the stats” (ITS) in all games played this season, we report these perfect squads:
• Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.
• Miami (Ohio) and New Mexico State remain winless.
In the NFL the only perfect ITS team - winless - is Minnesota.
There have been 57 Overs and 49 Unders in the NFL this season.
Leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 24-11 O/U.
This week’s potential non-conference Overs would be: Jacksonville vs. San Francisco (London), Buffalo vs. New Orleans and Denver vs. Washington.
Stat of the Week
North Texas has not won three games in a row since 2004, and is 1-24 straight up in games off a previous win.