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Posted by habs420 1 year ago
Posted by eldorado 1 year ago
Posted by eliminat0r85 1 year ago
Data doesn't lie, and heading into Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season, the data stacks up in favor of the Panthers, a playoff team from last year, while the Bucs have little except a new head coach in Lovie Smith to buoy them. Our extremely accurate models are high on a number of games, but few have the 8* confidence rating of this free pick.
With a projected ROI of 11.6% and a win confidence of 55.2%, taking the Carolina Panthers on the moneyline at -118 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is one of the most statistically savvy bets you can make in Week 1 of the the 2014 NFL season.
In 14 games since the 2000-2001 season, the Panthers have won 62.5% of their games against the Bucs. The Bucs, of course, are opening the season at home, which explains why they're not as big of an underdog as you might expect. That being said, the Panthers have performed even better on the road than they have at home against the Bucs, winning 66.7% of their games at Raymond James Stadium in the same timeframe.
On an individual level, our models project Cam Newton to throw for 212 yards against the Bucs' D, which ranked dead center of the pack during the 2013 season when it comes to passing YPG at 237.9. You can also expect Newton to put in work on the ground; in two games last year, he burned the Bucs D with his legs, gaining 118 yards in total with 2 TDs. Our algorithms project him to have 35 yards rushing in Week 1, which will have the Bucs (who are still learning new defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier's defensive scheme) off balance throughout the game.
Lastly, our line projection models expect to see a rush of money coming in on the Panthers as the season approaches. The first few weeks of any NFL season see playoff teams from the previous year receive the majority of action, so locking in Carolina at -118 now is the smart play as you shouldn't expect a line this advantageous to last long once the general betting public gets a hold of it.
Stay tuned for updates to our analysis as Week 1 approaches.
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