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Projected BCS bowls and spreads: K-State sneaks into title game

There are no changes from last week as far as the teams involved in the BCS bowls. However, the matchups have been shaken up. Let’s take a look at the projected spreads for the five BCS bowl games:

BCS Championship

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Projected line: Alabama -10

Kansas State leapfrogged over Oregon in the BCS Rankings thanks to a very impressive win at West Virginia this past week. The remaining schedule is far from easy but, with the way this team is playing, the Wildcats look legit for a big run.

Alabama also won a tough test on the road at Tennessee and this is easily the most complete team in college football. The Crimson Tide face Mississippi State this week, which moved up to 11th in the BCS rankings and is one of the remaining 10 undefeated teams in the country. Alabama is looking more and more like a double-digit favorite.

Fiesta Bowl


Oklahoma Sooners vs. USC Trojans

Projected line: USC -3

Because we moved Kansas State into the BCS Championship, the Sooners take their spot in the Fiesta because of the Big 12 affiliation. Oklahoma has a big test this week with Notre Dame and that result will have an impact on next week’s projected odds for sure. The rest of the slate is very manageable.

The Trojans are a good public draw and will certainly be picked up here, figuring Notre Dame loses to either Oklahoma or in its matchup with USC. They would get bumped by Oregon in the Rose Bowl should Kansas State hold on. The Trojans’ public draw makes them the betting favorite as well.

Orange Bowl


Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Florida State Seminoles

Projected line: Florida State -10

This matchup remains the same. The Seminoles are off a solid road win at Miami and are on pace to take the ACC Atlantic, as they own the tiebreaker against Clemson thanks to the head-to-head win.

Rutgers is coming off a come-from-behind win at Temple and, while that may not be impressive, the Scarlet Knights are the early favorites for a BCS bowl game as they host Louisville to end the season. As mentioned last week, the Big East conference is the lowest-ranked conference and it will not get much respect from the linesmakers no matter who is here.

Rose Bowl

Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines

Projected line: Oregon -15

Despite a solid road win at Arizona State, the Ducks fell a spot in the BCS rankings as they were leapfrogged by Kansas State. Oregon could feasibly go undefeated and not play in the BCS Championship, which would make another strong case for the upcoming playoff system.

Michigan defeated rival Michigan State and it jumped into the rankings at No. 22 after being unranked last week. Besides bowl ineligible Ohio State, the Wolverines are playing the best in the Big Ten right now but that isn't saying much. The Ducks would be a huge public favorite here.

Sugar Bowl

Florida Gators vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish


Projected line: Florida -3

Florida looked really solid against South Carolina as it knocked the Gamecocks from BCS consideration. The Gators will be watching the LSU-Alabama game in two weeks with interest as a Tigers’ upset win would likely put them here and knock Florida into the Capital One Bowl.

If Notre Dame loses to either Oklahoma or USC, it will still get the at-large bid here as the Irish are a bigger draw than Oregon State, should be Beavers remain in the Top 12, and they will be placed ahead of the remaining SEC teams because of other bowl tie ins. The betting public will be pretty split with a small number.

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Posted by JackBauer
7 months ago

Well Matt, I hope you are right and Florida v. ND happens with a line of -3. That will be a very happy day for me. GL this weekend.
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Posted by MrBogey
7 months ago

it is hard to make a sharp line 2 months out. stop nit picking and just read what the guy has to say.
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Posted by MattFargoCE
7 months ago

Bogey you are right, it is nearly impossible to have a line now and have it stick two months later. Too many variables from now until then that can cause lines moves.
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Posted by brownbull
7 months ago

Is he taking bets at ND +3? lol. I know ND has a huge following but the public will not be anywhere near split on that. How can he write such absurd things?
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Posted by MattFargoCE
7 months ago

Absurd? How is it absurd when two of the best defenses in the country match up against each other which would likely dictate a low scoring defensive game?
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Posted by rdelahuerta
7 months ago

I know Kansas State is playing great but I thought the fact they chickened out and decided not to include Oregon in their schedule would mean something...
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Posted by JackBauer
7 months ago

Florida -3 over Notre Dame? Where did this line come from? This line would be -7. I realize Notre Dame has a national following and Florida hasn't exactly lit it up on offense, but from a pure power rankings standpoint....
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Posted by MattFargoCE
7 months ago

From a pure power ranking perspective, nearly every power ranking has Florida 3 points better on a neutral field. Jeff Sagarin, who is the most respected as this, has Florida at 96 and Notre Dame at 93.
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Top Response

Posted by MattFargoCE
7 months ago

"Absurd? How is it absurd when two of the best defenses in the country match up against each other which would likely dictate a low scoring defensive game?"