Projected BCS bowls and spreads: K-State sneaks into title game
There are no changes from last week as far as the teams involved in the BCS bowls. However, the matchups have been shaken up. Let’s take a look at the projected spreads for the five BCS bowl games:
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Projected line: Alabama -10
Kansas State leapfrogged over Oregon in the BCS Rankings thanks to a very impressive win at West Virginia this past week. The remaining schedule is far from easy but, with the way this team is playing, the Wildcats look legit for a big run.
Alabama also won a tough test on the road at Tennessee and this is easily the most complete team in college football. The Crimson Tide face Mississippi State this week, which moved up to 11th in the BCS rankings and is one of the remaining 10 undefeated teams in the country. Alabama is looking more and more like a double-digit favorite.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. USC Trojans
Projected line: USC -3
Because we moved Kansas State into the BCS Championship, the Sooners take their spot in the Fiesta because of the Big 12 affiliation. Oklahoma has a big test this week with Notre Dame and that result will have an impact on next week’s projected odds for sure. The rest of the slate is very manageable.
The Trojans are a good public draw and will certainly be picked up here, figuring Notre Dame loses to either Oklahoma or in its matchup with USC. They would get bumped by Oregon in the Rose Bowl should Kansas State hold on. The Trojans’ public draw makes them the betting favorite as well.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Florida State Seminoles
Projected line: Florida State -10
This matchup remains the same. The Seminoles are off a solid road win at Miami and are on pace to take the ACC Atlantic, as they own the tiebreaker against Clemson thanks to the head-to-head win.
Rutgers is coming off a come-from-behind win at Temple and, while that may not be impressive, the Scarlet Knights are the early favorites for a BCS bowl game as they host Louisville to end the season. As mentioned last week, the Big East conference is the lowest-ranked conference and it will not get much respect from the linesmakers no matter who is here.
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines
Projected line: Oregon -15
Despite a solid road win at Arizona State, the Ducks fell a spot in the BCS rankings as they were leapfrogged by Kansas State. Oregon could feasibly go undefeated and not play in the BCS Championship, which would make another strong case for the upcoming playoff system.
Michigan defeated rival Michigan State and it jumped into the rankings at No. 22 after being unranked last week. Besides bowl ineligible Ohio State, the Wolverines are playing the best in the Big Ten right now but that isn't saying much. The Ducks would be a huge public favorite here.
Florida Gators vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected line: Florida -3
Florida looked really solid against South Carolina as it knocked the Gamecocks from BCS consideration. The Gators will be watching the LSU-Alabama game in two weeks with interest as a Tigers’ upset win would likely put them here and knock Florida into the Capital One Bowl.
If Notre Dame loses to either Oklahoma or USC, it will still get the at-large bid here as the Irish are a bigger draw than Oregon State, should be Beavers remain in the Top 12, and they will be placed ahead of the remaining SEC teams because of other bowl tie ins. The betting public will be pretty split with a small number.