Handicapping possible NFL quarterback changes
The deck is stacked against teams without franchise quarterbacks and today we check out three teams who may soon be contemplating changes. Covers Experts Ben Burns and Ted Sevransky look at the teams and how switches could affect the numbers.
“The power rating adjustment for each team has very little to do with the starter and everything to do with the difference between starter and backup,” says Sevransky.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 SU, 1-3-1 ATS)
Starter – Michael Vick
Backup(s) – Nick Foles and Trent Edwards
Problem – Offense hamstrung by too many turnovers
The Eagles (1-3-1 ATS) are living on the edge every week, with four games decided by one or two points, and everyone knows the problem is that Vick can’t seem to hang on to the ball. That’s bad. Even worse is that Vick just shrugs his shoulders and chalks it up to fate.
Vick must have done something nasty in his past as karma is really catching up to him – he has 29 fumbles (12 lost) in the last 29 games. But is the cure worse than the disease? Foles has zero experience and Edwards hasn’t taken serious snaps since 2008.
Sevransky: "Vick to Foles is a major drop-off, despite how poorly Vick has played this year. Foles is a rookie with zero NFL experience and I would think the market would move against Philly about a field goal in Vick's absence, with a point or two adjustment on the total.”
Burns: “While Philly fans are getting restless, I don't think Reid plans on benching Vick anytime soon. He knows he needs "the good Vick" to somehow return to give the Eagles a shot at the Super Bowl he covets. Vick’s absence would have a small effect on the line.”
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Starter – Blaine Gabbert
Backup – Chad Henne
Problem – Offense is in reverse
Fans in J-Ville are calling for a complete reboot of the franchise after the Jags put up a total of 13 points in back-to-back losses (Cincinnati, Chicago), and there’s real concern that Gabbert is not making progress. The Jags have the fewest points in the league and Gabbert is near the bottom (29) in QB rating. Backup Chad Henne has two full years of experience at Miami, but he was under water (27 TD passes, 33 INTs) there.
Sevransky: “Gabbert to Henne there would be no adjustment downwards -- in fact, you might even see the market tick up a notch or two on the Jaguars with a more experienced QB behind center.”
Burns: “If Gabbert gets benched, there would be little impact. He threw for less than 150 yards with two INTs on Sunday. For the next while, bettors are going to be pretty down on the Jags no matter who starts.”
New York Jets (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Starter – Mark Sanchez
Backup – Tim Tebow
Problem – Sanchez’s lack of accuracy
Can the Jets win even six games this season if Sanchez can’t complete more than 50 percent of his passes (he’s at 48 percent now)? It wasn’t his fault that two INTs went off receivers’ hands Monday night. But it is what it is with Sanchez, and anyone clamoring for change apparently hasn’t seen video of Tebow’s last full game (playoff loss in New England).
Sevransky: “From Sanchez to Tebow it’s no more than a point for the side or the total.”
Burns: “I don't think [Rex] Ryan plans on starting Tebow anytime soon. Sanchez just covered the spread on national TV.”