Las Vegas oddsmaker Keith Glantz, of the ‘Glantz-Culver’ line, once told me that 70 percent of the teams who cover the spread, also win the game.
I thought of that this week when I was doing a story on the four college football teams
that were 2-0 SU (straight up) this season heading into Week 3 who had yet to cover a spread.
Every now and then I’ll throw the 70 percent rule out to people. Some nod, rub their chins and murmur something like “interesting”, while others just flat out call “b.s.”
So I put our nerds on the case and asked them delve deep into our database to unearth the truth.
Turns out I’m right. Well, Glantz is right - at least when it comes to college football.
Over the past five seasons, the team that won the game SU went 2660-937-49 ATS (against the spread) in FBS (Div. 1-A) games, not including bowl games. That works out to 72.95 percent of the time.
Just to show the numbers aren’t skewed by the time period, last year the winning team went 557-210-9 ATS, for a percentage of 71.78.
So what does this mean?
Well, for starters, it brings some clarity to the value of the moneyline if you weren’t aware of this adage before. Many public bettors are terrified of, or simply ignore, the moneyline when it comes to more sizeable underdogs.
Many sharps, however, like to place a smaller moneyline wager in games where they’re also taking the points with the underdog. The reasoning being, if you like them to cover, there’s a decent chance they’re also going to win.
Usually, bettors who do this have some kind of rule around it. For example, they only do it for underdogs of between 10 and 20 points. That’s up to the individual bettor to decide.
The other factor here is that I’m trying to distract you from the fact I went 1-3 with my 4P picks last week. I’m now 4-4 on the season.
On to this week’s selections. Boston College at Northwestern (-3.5, 54.5)
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said this week that only one of his players on either side of the ball is “playing at a championship level.”
I can’t tell if he’s bragging or complaining. This is Northwestern we're talking about.
Pick: Northwestern -3.5
BYU at Utah (+3.5, 46)
Check out this lede from a story in the Salt Lake Tribune
“The kicks went to the left, they went to the right, they went barely above the grass and sometimes, they even went through the goal posts.”
To summarize, head coach Kyle Whittingham called the kicking situation in Utah “discouraging”.
Not good when the spread is 3.5 points.
Pick: BYU Utah State vs. Wisconsin (-13.5, 51)
Hey, remember that moneyline thingy we talked about? Let’s give it a shot.
Pick: Utah State +13.5 (and a half unit on the ML)
Texas A&M at SMU (+11,60.5)
This may be a sucker bet but it was hard not to love the way Johnny Manziel played last week against Florida in his first college start.
Pick: Texas A&M -11