Why sharps prefer betting conference tournaments over the NCAA

The focus of the betting nation is heightened on the NCAA Tournament, one of the top spectacles in sports, which begins Tuesday, March 19.

But for more and more bettors, conference tournaments are becoming the popular choice and, as some handicappers will tell you, they have the potential to provide a bigger windfall than the Big Dance that follows.

Much bigger, actually.

Here are four reasons why cappers cash in during the conference tournaments.

Quick turnaround

Professional handicapper David Malinsky believes the conference tournaments provide the unique opportunity to jump on the oddsmakers, who are working against a clock to produce quick spreads.

“The oddsmakers face some of their biggest challenges in these games,” he says. “They are forced to deal fresh lines based on matchups that are being determined on the fly. In the NCAA Tournament, the oddsmakers do not have to deal with those time pressures.”

“Particularly on the West Coast,” adds Sevransky. “A game might end at midnight and you have to have a spread up at 7 a.m. the next morning.”

Emotion factor

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence sees conference tournaments as one last chance for teams to gain the upper hand on a rival or an opponent that had their number in the regular season.

“Revenge can be a powerful tool in handicapping conference tourney games,” says Lawrence, “and when applied properly can be the difference in winning and losing the handicapping battle with the oddsmakers.”

Lack-of-emotion factor

In this year’s Big Ten Tournament, squads on the NCAA bubble like Minnesota and Illinois have much more on the line than shoo-ins like Indiana and Michigan.

“You have legitimate motivation issues,” says pro handicapper Teddy Covers. “There are many coaches with teams that have to be favored, but they don’t give a hoot because their eyes are on the bigger prize the following week.

“It’s a classic case of disinterested favorites, which you always like to see.”

“The ability of coaches to generate gameplans without practice time brings unique edges,” adds Malinsky.  “And knowing which teams will literally quit when they fall behind big in a game and which will play hard for the full 40 minutes no matter what the score is can lead to some outstanding situations.”

Not that simple

The experts will provide some caveats, too.

Conference tournaments are for the well-informed, says Malinsky. After all, the teams facing each other are often doing so for a third time.

Because of that, Covers Expert Steve Merril believes oddsmakers could potentially wield more power for conference tournaments. The NCAA Tournament, he argues, takes more in-depth analysis to prepare for because many of the matchups are unique. There are oftentimes no common opponents and strength of schedule and statistics vary greatly.
 
“The (conference tournament) lines are much sharper and accurate because the oddsmakers have past examples to base their numbers on."

Editor's note: This story was originally published in March 2011. Stats and figures have been updated.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Posted by mylife23
1 year ago

solid stuff....especially with the uncertainty of so many ranked teams this season....I don't think the word upset can be taken literally for such a season like this with the upcoming tournament
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Posted by Bosshook
3 years ago

Great article. I have found much better value and edge in betting Conference tourneys and make it an annual sojourn to the desert. If you like to follow your money bouncing between books like I do the other advantage is Vegas is not overrun with rooks and wack jobs. In fact I'm gettin' on that jet plane tomorrow early to battle the books on those short turnaround lines. The other advantage to playing the conference tourneys is just the comfort of knowing a particular conference and the season trends in-conference. Good luck conference tourney cappers!
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Posted by psuships
1 year ago

I'm very jealous Boss. Vegas is my favorite place on earth. I used to go every March, but old age and the wife have a way of screwing that up. Also, though, when i started going in late 80's there was no internet or online books...so good luck out there and have a drink on me!
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Posted by OzzPostcom
3 years ago

Solid info
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Posted by erupt
3 years ago

i agree with everything put forth here. i am no "sharp" but i bet both the ncaa and conference tournaments. the one factor i like about ncaa games is they get more play from the public. i have more confidence on a linemaker without much time creating a truer line than one that is moved by the public. i find opportunity in the big games that are often moved by the public to a place the line shouldn't be.
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Posted by psuships
1 year ago

Hey erupt...that is a great point about huge games with a lot of public action. I like to watch the "experts" vs. the public in the matchups section on this site. Obviously, the experts are on it a lot more than the public. Great points and good luck y'all.
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Top Response

Posted by erupt
3 years ago

"i agree with everything put forth here. i am no "sharp" but i bet both the ncaa and conference tournaments. the one factor i like about ncaa games is they get more play from the public. i have more confidence on a linemaker without much time creating..."