Potential BCS bowl matchups and pointspreads

OK, so after four weeks of projecting the same two teams to land in the national title game, let’s just have a little fun this week, why don’t we?

Take nothing away from Auburn. The Tigers, with controversy swirling all around them last week, still handled a dangerous Georgia team that had upset on its mind.

With all that said, however, let’s face it: The Tigers still have major issues on defense and the trail to a perfect record, going through Alabama and South Carolina in the SEC title game, will be a bear for a team and a program that is still finding its way.

So, let’s just say for purposes of discussion here, that Auburn stumbles along that road. And let’s just say, with Virginia Tech’s resurgence helping Boise State and Utah’s collapse hurting TCU, that the blue-blooded Broncos jump up to No. 2 in the BCS by season’s end, setting up a colossal clash vs. No. 1 Oregon.

Yes, what a matchup that would be, a rematch of a dandy from last regular season. And with running back LeGarrette Blount, who threw the postgame sucker punch in the last matchup between these two, now in the NFL, perhaps we’ll actually get a clean game.

But that doesn’t matter to the bettors, anyway, does it? What they care about is the line, the action, the buzz. So without further adieu, let’s take a look at this week’s projected matchups and pointspreads.

And joining us in the discussion this week is Jay Kornegay, the executive director of Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book:

BCS Championship Game: Boise State (+4) vs. Oregon

Be careful here. Remember, the object of spreads, at their roots, is to get two-way action. And this line would fit that bill.

“Boise has beaten the Ducks two years in a row and one of them at Oregon,” Kornegay said. “The public perception favors Oregon.”

Exactly. So, knowing that, expect that line, if it happened, to jump up on Oregon’s side. There’s too much offense, there’s too much of a reputation among the BCS conference schools to keep the Ducks from not being the public’s choice.

But we all know what happens when the Broncos are underestimated, especially in BCS settings, right? Ask Oklahoma. Ask TCU.

Either way, this would be one interesting tilt.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+2.5) vs. Ohio State

Let’s not give up on Auburn for good. Let’s just project a loss to Alabama and then a win over South Carolina in Atlanta to win the SEC. That gives them a berth in the Sugar Bowl, a national stage, and plenty of positive publicity … all of which the program needs.

The Buckeyes, however, are back. They had their slip, they picked themselves up and they are streaking toward the finish line. Keep in mind, this team was ranked No. 1 not too long ago and, as Oregon found out last year in the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes can handle speed and can wear down perhaps any team in the country in a big game.

“Usually when a team has national championship aspirations and they lose late in the season, they perform poorly in their bowl game,” Kornegay said of Auburn, if this were to happen, of course. “This fits into that mold. The Buckeyes can stop the run and nobody has done that against the Tigers… yet.”

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (+4) vs. TCU

Keep that motivation angle in your heads for this one. The Horned Frogs have done all the right things, but in the end, the computers may not agree. If that’s the case, TCU may end up with a date in Miami vs. the ACC champion.

“If Boise State leapfrogs the Frogs,” Kornegay said, “how motivated will TCU be?”

It’s a good question. But on talent alone and considering Virginia Tech’s track record against these Mighty Mite programs (please see the opening week loss to Boise State), the pointspread nod would go to the Frogs.

Fiesta Bowl: Pitt (+8) vs. Nebraska

Well, we say it every week… only because it’s true: Someone has to win the Big East. Even though Pitt lost to UConn, the Panthers still have a favorable road to the BCS party.

Of course, when they get there, it might be ugly.

“Mismatch,” Kornegay said. “The Cornhuskers defense is way too fast for Pitt’s offense. We might start to question the Big East’s automatic invite.”

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (+4.5) vs. Stanford

The Badgers have the best chance to win the Big Ten outright and they’re playing like it. And regardless of what other projections and other breakdowns might say, we have a hard time thinking the Rose Bowl committee won’t be amped up for a classic clash of styles between the two conferences that have made the Rose Bowl what it is today: the Pac-10 and the Big Ten.

But what we also love about this matchup are the reputations. Flash and dash from Stanford. Smash and crash from Wisconsin - and a whole lot of red in the stands.

“A very good, competitive matchup,” Kornegay said.  “Stanford’s defense is better than most people think. Wisconsin is not run-oriented as in years past. (Stanford quarterback) Andrew Luck is the difference.”

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6 years ago

YES, I am going for BOISE ST. BRONCOS, 2 be in the BCS!!! They will win, whoever they play, it doesn't matter, who it is!!! GO BOISE ST. U CAN DO IT & DO IT BIG. RUN LIKE A CHAMP & PLAY LIKE A CHAMP!!!

Posted by canovsp
6 years ago

One scenario I haven't seen yet is if LSU wins out. That would mean beating Ole Miss and Arkansas (which will not be easy). However, if they do, that is going to be more points from the computer. Remember, their only loss is at Auburn by 7. Is it conceivable that they jump TCU and/or Boise St? There is one thing I definitely know: If they win out they will not be left out of a BCS bowl. If they lose another along the way then it won't matter.

Posted by cweb1296
6 years ago

Cant belive this is what you predict. How in the hell would you predict Wisconsin in the rosebowl when Michigan st will finish ahead of them in the big ten and they beat wisconsin in the meeting they had this year. Get your facts right b4 you go making lame predictions. I think whoever wrote this bs up really needs to be evaluated themselves. Look at the stats and rankings b4 you go making predictions at least damn.

Posted by SatNightFever05
6 years ago

I like how you just skip over the 2 games Boise State has coming up against quality competition. Everyone is on Boise's bandwagon.... And let's not forget that Auburn already beat South Carolina earlier in the year when Auburn wasn't as potent on offense, yet. Auburn's toughest test is against Alabama. ______________ HAHA SC gave that game away.. Garcia lit em up & Lattimore only had 15 carries..

Posted by Batspeed123
6 years ago

Not so fast! Nebraska does not beat Oklahoma State 2 times in a row. Nebraska is defense is slowing down, needing OT to beat Iowa State. Oklahoma State's defense is peaking.

Posted by bpiper05
6 years ago

First off I love the insight of these upcoming possible predictions. I agree i wouldn't mind seeing stanford play wisconsin. The two styles of both teams would make for a great game. I am a bit sick and tired of the whole bcs creating matchups by these automatic bids from conferences that dont deserve to play in a bcs bowl. I dont mind the computers ranking the top 2 teams but why even have any rankings after the top two if your gonna have the likes of pitt playing someone like nebraska, when it should be creating matchups like LSU vs. Nebraska. All because of these automatic bids and pre set conference mathups for bowl games we have a ton of meaningless and non interesting matchups. Get rid of this system where the 3rd acc team must play the 2nd big 10 and so forth and create matchups that are competitive. As well Tcu is a fraud. They would loose to va tech if they played. They dont play anyone all year and we call them national contenders. Atleast boise is starting to go out and play the big boys. Before you know it the only two undefeated teams will be tcu and boise and who wants to watch that championship. Auburn and ohio st would be another great game. Your right ohio st can stop the run, but give me cam newton and 2 and hook and i will take my chances all day.
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Top Response

Posted by cweb1296
6 years ago

"Cant belive this is what you predict. How in the hell would you predict Wisconsin in the rosebowl when Michigan st will finish ahead of them in the big ten and they beat wisconsin in the meeting they had this year. Get your facts right b4 you go maki..."