With the collective North American sports betting market on hold, now is a great time to look ahead to the upcoming NCAA football season and futures odds for the 2020 Heisman trophy.
Joe Burrow won the Heisman trophy last year despite entering summer as a whopping +20,000 long shot, while in 2016 Lamar Jackson took home the Heisman after being listed at +10,000 before the season began. So there is plenty of value in betting on college football's most iconic individual award.
We dig into the betting favorites and break down a few players we think have great value to win the Heisman this season.
THE FAVORITES
JUSTIN FIELDS +400
Fields checks off several boxes on the typical Heisman winner checklist: he plays quarterback for a team that is a betting favorite for national championship, competes in a major conference, gets plenty of publicity and is ultra-productive (throwing for 3,273 yards, 41 touchdowns and just three interceptions last year).
While I think Fields has good value at +400, we are still very far away from opening week and some sportbooks have already skewed the lines - likely due to early action they have taken. One book in particular has Fields currently listed at +175.
There is practically no value at betting on Fields with such a low payout given the many variables between now and December. Keep in mind that midway through the 2018 season, after Burrow had already separated from most of the field, you could still get the LSU quarterback at +125.
TREVOR LAWRENCE +400
While the co-favorite also ticks off many of the boxes that Heisman voters look for, Lawrence does have a couple of key disadvantages when compared to Fields. Clemson's ACC schedule is considered far weaker than other Power Five conference schools (although a November matchup against Notre Dame could grab the attention of Heisman voters), and Lawrence's teammate Travis Ettiene is among the Heisman front-runners as well.
Etienne has rushed for a total of 3,272 yards and almost 8 yards per carry over the last two years and is currently +2,000 to win the Heisman. While we don't see a running back winning the Heisman this year (more on that later) he could take votes away from Lawrence.
SPENCER RATTLER +1,200
Coming out of high school, Rattler was a five-star recruit and the consensus No. 1 quarterback in the class of 2019. While he didn't do much last season he is expected to take the reins of Oklahoma's high-powered offense in 2020.
The 2017 and 2018 Heisman winners were both Sooners QBs and last year's OU signal-caller Jalen Hurts was the runner-up for the award, so Rattler could be in prime position to make a run. That said, the fact that he has only thrown 11 passes in his career has us leery about betting on an unknown quantity. A few games into the season we will have a better idea on whether or not Rattler is worth betting on, and the value on him should still be very high at that point.
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VALUE BETS
JAMIE NEWMAN +1,400
One interesting Heisman trend in recent years has been the success of transfers, with the last three winners of the award all starting their college careers with other schools. A matter of fact, last season the winner and the first two runners-up were all transfers. Newman will play his first year for Georgia this season after transfering from Wake Forest.
The 6-foot-4, 230-pound signal-caller completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 2,868 yards and 26 touchdowns, while piling up another 574 yards and six scores on the ground for the Demon Deacons last year. Newman's supporting cast will be the best he's ever had (sorry Sage Surratt). Zamir White and James Cooks provide punch out of the backfield while freshman All-SEC selection George Pickens leads a wide receiver corps that also features former five-star recruit Dominick Blaylock and Demetris Robinson.
While the UGA offense has a reputation for being conservative in recent seasons, the addition of Todd Monkman at offensive co-ordinator should open up the passing game. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs return many of their top players from a stout defensive unit and should once again be a CFP contender. We love the value on betting Newman at +1,400.
MAC JONES +2,500
Joe Burrow seemingly came from nowhere last year but his ascent actually began at the end of the previous season. Burrow competed 66 percent of his passes for 971 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception over the last three games of the 2018 season, then continued that strong play into 2019.
If you're looking for a similar player to build off his success from the end of last year, Mac Jones might be your guy. In four starts after Alabama lost Tua Tagovailoa to a season-ending injury, Jones completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 1172 yards, 13 TDs and two interceptions.
Although throwing two pick-sixes against Auburn was less than ideal, he still passed for 335 yards and four TDs in that contest and then capped the year with an excellent performance versus Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Alabama will doubtless be in championship contention because when are they not? And despite the yearly exodus of Crimson Tide players to the NFL, the cupboard is still loaded with talent thanks to wide receivers Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, along with running back Najee Harris.
The biggest damper on Jones' Heisman aspirations might be his competition at QB for the Tide. Tua's younger brother Taulia could get a look while five-star recruit Bryce Young may also be a factor.
That said, the coronvairus pandemic will cut into spring drills which should give the already seasoned Jones a huge edge in terms of preparation. I'm expecting Jones to hold on to the starting job and be a strong contender for the Heisman.
FADE
CHUBA HUBBARD +2,000
Hubbard is tied with Etienne for the best Heisman odds among non-quarterbacks. The Okalahoma State running back led the country with 2,094 rushing yards last season but will have to buck a couple of big trends if he wants to win the Heisman.
Of the last 20 Heisman winners only three non-quarterbacks have taken home the award, while 13 of the last 20 Heisman winners have come from teams that made it to the national championship game. Oklahoma State currently has the 17th best odds to win the national championship and will likely not make it to the CFP.
Hubbard might be one of the top RBs in the nation but I don't see him making a serious run at the Heisman.
DEREK STINGLEY JR. AND HAMILCAR RASHED JR.
Some odds boards have Stingley listed anywhere from +5,000 to +10,000, and while most books don't have Rashed listed on their odds list, one operator has the Oregon State pass rusher at +5,000. The best advice on these defenders (even with a massive payout) is to stay far away.
Only one defensive player (Charles Woodson) in more than 80 years of Heisman trophy selections has taken home the award, and even he contributed on offense and the return game.
If you really want to place a long shot wager on a defensive player you may as well wait until the middle of the season, see who is playing at a dominant level and make sure their teams are in national title contention. After all, when Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young emerged as the best defensive player in the country on one of the top teams in the country near the middle of October he could still be grabbed at +2,500 at some books.
2020 HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS
Here are the odds (as of March 15) to win the 2020 Heisman Trophy according to the Superbook at Westgate.
| PLAYER | SCHOOL | ODDS TO WIN HEISMAN TROPHY |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | Ohio State | +400 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | +400 |
| Spencer Rattler | Oklahoma | +1,200 |
| Sam Ehlinger | Texas | +1,400 |
| Jamie Newman | Georgia | +1,400 |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | +2,000 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State | +2,000 |
| Ian Book | Notre Dame | +2,000 |
| Mac Jones | Alabama | +2,500 |
| Myles Brennan | LSU | +3,000 |
| Bo Nix | Auburn | +3,000 |
| D'Eriq King | Miami | +3,000 |
| Adrian Martinez | Nebraska | +3,000 |
| Sam Howell | North Carolina | +3,000 |
| Kedon Slovis | USC | +4,000 |
| Sean Clifford | Penn State | +4,000 |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | +4,000 |
| Kyle Trask | Florida | +4,000 |
| Spencer Sanders | Oklahoma State | +4,000 |
| Kellon Mond | Texas A&M | +5,000 |
| Master Teague III | Ohio State | +6,000 |
| Tyler Shough | Oregon | +6,000 |
| Brock Purdy | Iowa State | +6,000 |
| CJ Verdell | Oregon | +6,000 |
| Charlie Brewer | Baylor | +6,000 |
