Two divisional leaders begin a three-game weekend series tonight as the Atlanta Braves hit the road to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I have my eyes set on the total for this evening's Braves vs. Dodgers predictions. Read on for my latest MLB picks for May 3.
Braves vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Friday’s Game 1 is a pitching matchup between Charlie Morton and Gavin Stone. The bookmakers have priced the total at 9.5, but that’s not high enough in a game that expects plenty of offense.
Morton’s surface-level statistics have been fine this season, but dig a little deeper and you’ll notice some cracks in the 40-year-old’s armor. Mainly, he’s struggling to make batters miss — his 23.3% K-rate is the lowest it's been since 2015, as is his 10.7% swinging strike rate. Both figures have dropped two percentage points since last season alone.
The veteran has lost a tick off his fastball, which averaged 95 mph a year ago but is at 94.1 mph in 2024 — the slowest it has been since 2020. Historically, Morton has struggled against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his career, entering tonight with a 1-4 record and 5.70 ERA in seven starts against Big Blue.
Meanwhile, Stone has gotten his fastball crushed so far this season, ranking in the 21st percentile in fastball run value (-3). His four-seamer has also been walloped (.437 wOBA, .467 xSLG, 8.7% whiff rate), and his sinker hasn’t fared any better (.466 wOBA, .527 xSLG, but a 27.1% whiff rate).
The Atlanta Braves rake against righties, boasting Top-5 numbers in both wRC+ (115) and wOBA (.336). The wind is blowing out at 5.8 mph at Chavez Ravine tonight, so this deadly lineup should have every opportunity to plate some runs against Stone.
Braves vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases
Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases
Two Dodgers who have found success against the aged hurler are Mookie Betts (10-for-31 with one home run, .890 OPS), and Freddie Freeman (10-for-20 with three home runs, 1.600 OPS).
Considering Morton ranks just 88th in Stuff+ (92) among starters who have thrown at least 20 innings, the 40-year-old is in for a long night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Dodgers odds
Braves vs Dodgers live odds
Braves vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+150) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -110 | Los Angeles -110
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Braves vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers return home after a successful nine-game road stin in which they went 7-2 SU.
- LA is just 7-8 SU at Dodger Stadium this season.
- The Braves have been road warriors thus far, boasting a 9-5 SU record away from home.
- The Dodgers are 5-2 O/U across their last seven home games.
Braves vs Dodgers trend
This season, the Dodgers are 3-1-1 O/U in games that Stone starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers
Braves vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, SportsNet LA |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (2-0, 3.60 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (2-1, 4.68 ERA) |
Braves vs Dodgers latest injuries
Braves vs Dodgers weather
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