The Toronto Tempo could find themselves in big trouble tonight at 8 p.m. ET (TSN, Victory+) from the Target Center in Minneapolis when they take on the Minnesota Lynx, as WNBA action resumes following the All-Star break.
Minnesota is a 14.5-point betting favorite now that it's finally at full strength with Napheesa Collier back, and my Tempo vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks expect Toronto's defense to be exposed on Tuesday, July 28.
Tempo vs Lynx prediction
Tempo vs Lynx best bet: Over 184.5 (-110)
The Toronto Tempo are the best Over team in the WNBA this season (16-8), thanks to a non-existent defense that has the worst rating in the W (113.9) and allows the second-most points per game (92.9).
The Tempo are one of only two teams in the Bottom 4 for effective field-goal percentage allowed (53.2%) and defensive rim rate (38.9%). And the Minnesota Lynx are more than equipped to take advantage.
Minnesota is Top-3 in offensive rating (112.4) and effective field-goal percentage (57.9%), which has helped the Lynx hit the Over in eight of their last nine.
But with Brittney Sykes still out for the Tempo, I wouldn't play this Over if the game total gets much bigger — I'd shy away from anything above 185.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Tempo's defensive rating has been even worse over their last 11 games, slipping to 119.1.
Tempo vs Lynx same-game parlay
The key to this Over hitting is the Lynx's offense lighting up the worst defense in the league. And to do that, Minnesota needs both Napheesa Collier and Olivia Miles to play at an All-Star level.
Miles, who leads the WNBA Rookie of the Year odds race, is Top 10 in the league in both assists per game (6.0) and assist rate (30.5%). She can torch a Tempo defense allowing the third-most APG (21.5) by feeding Collier.
Collier, who averaged a career-high 22.9 PPG last year, looked every bit the perennial All-Star she is in her return. She dropped 24 points and shot 45% from the floor in her first game in months.
The Tempo aren't going to be the defense to stop her.
Tempo vs Lynx SGP
- Over 184.5
- Napheesa Collier Over 19.5 points
- Olivia Miles Over 6.5 assists
Tempo vs Lynx player prop pick
Napheesa Collier Over 19.5 points (-120)
Even without Collier, the Lynx had been leading the WNBA championship odds. Now, with the five-time All-Star back, Minnesota is by far the most frightening team in the W.
The Tempo should be terrified about having to stop Collier, who has averaged 20+ PPG in three straight seasons.
That's why getting her point total at 19.5 against Toronto's dumpsterfire defense is such a steal - I'd take the Over on 19.5 as short as -140 (and it's worth taking the Over at 20.5 points, too).
Last season, Collier put up 20+ points in 25 of 38 (65.8%), and she already crossed 20 points in her first game back last week.
- Best bet: 0-2, -2 units
- SGP: 0-2, -0.4 units
- Player prop: 1-1, -0.2 units
Tempo vs Lynx odds
- Spread: Tempo +14.5 (-105) | Lynx -14.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Tempo +750 | Lynx -1200
- Over/Under: Over 184.5 (-110) | Under 184.5 (-110)
Tempo vs Lynx trend
The Over is 7-0 in the Tempo's last seven road games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Tempo vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN, Victory+ |
Tempo vs Lynx latest injuries
Tempo: Brittney Sykes G (Out), Nyara Sabally F (Questionable), Kiki Rice G (Questionable), Isabelle Harrison F (Questionable).
Lynx: Emma Cechova F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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