There will be more eyeballs on the WNBA than ever as the 2024 season tips off tonight.
That surge in betting interest has most bookies not only setting sides and totals but also loading the WNBA odds board with plenty of player props.
I'll look over the four games on the opening night slate and give my best WNBA picks for May 14.
WNBA player prop bets for May 14
- Jones Over 9.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
- Plum Over 4.5 assists (-136 at FanDuel)
- Loyd Over 2.5 threes (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 5-14 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today's best WNBA player props bets
Prop bet #1: J.J. All Day
Among WNBA analysts, New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones is a sleeper to win MVP. Heck, she earned those honors in 2021 and enters this season healthy and at home with a loaded Liberty roster.
Jones is a force inside, especially on the glass. While she was limited to start last year, the 6-foot-6 center averaged a league-high 10.3 rebounds in the second half of 2023 and was a beast on the boards in the playoffs, pulling down 11+ rebounds a night.
Jones and New York open the season against a Washington Mystics team in a full rebuild. Washington has some notable standouts, but no true stars on offense and the frontcourt lacks depth down low beyond Shakira Austin, rookie Aaliyah Edwards, and former Liberty forward Stefanie Dolson.
Rebounding props for Jones are as high as 10.5 Over/Under, with some markets still sitting at 9.5. Player projections for Jones call for 10+ boards and considering Washington’s lack of offensive talent, that ceiling could be even higher if the Mystics miss as often as I expect.
Jones hauled down rebound totals of 12 and 14 against a shorthanded Washington roster in the playoffs and shouldn’t have trouble reaching 10 tonight.
Jonquel Jones prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Passing Plum
The Las Vegas Aces begin their journey to three straight WNBA titles tonight, welcoming the new-look Phoenix Mercury to Sin City.
The Aces start that process without starting guard Chelsea Gray, who is sidelined with a leg injury. Gray is Vegas’ primary ball handler, and that leaves more point guard work to Kelsey Plum.
Plum, who averaged 4.5 assists in 2023, has assist props bouncing between 4.5 and 5.5 dimes, while her player projections flirt with six assists — an output that I believe has a higher ceiling.
The Mercury moved a lot of pieces around this offseason and will start the year without center Brittney Griner in the middle (toe injury). Phoenix ranked among the worst defenses in the league last year, and if preseason play is any indication, there’s still work to do on that end of the floor. The Mercury allowed 85 and 98 points in their two exhibition games.
The Aces’ team total sits at 92.5 points and tonight's spread is as high as Las Vegas -16. That game script means plenty of points and plenty of assist opportunities from Plum, who will handle the ball more than usual in Game 1.
Kelsey Plum prop: Over 4.5 assists (-136 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Long-Range Loyd
After a season of doing it all for the Seattle Storm, help is on the way for Jewel Loyd in 2024. The franchise signed stars Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith, taking some of the scoring load off Loyd’s shoulders.
That doesn’t mean she’ll take a step back as Seattle’s top option, however.
If anything, Loyd will enjoy the softer defense, as foes can’t just focus on taking away her looks. Loyd is still one of the most dangerous 3-point threats in the WNBA and will get her chance to let it fly tonight.
Seattle opens its season against the Minnesota Lynx, a team that struggled to defend the arc in 2023. The Lynx allowed a league-worst 8.9 triples per contest, and while head coach Cheryl Reeve stressed improvements on that end this offseason, the Storm’s star-studded lineup is a handful for any team.
Loyd’s prowess from the perimeter hasn't changed, especially after watching her jack up 12 of her 26 field goal attempts from distance in the two preseason games.
Jewel Loyd prop: Over 2.5 threes (-114 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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