The Phoenix Mercury rolled to a seven-point lead in the first half of Game 1 before the Minnesota Lynx stormed back in the second to emerge victorious at home.
My Mercury vs. Lynx predictions call for another competitive, low-scoring matchup at Target Center.
Find out why in WNBA picks for September 23.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My Mercury vs Lynx best bet: Under 159.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx hit the Under in all four regular-season matchups, and they came away with another Under in Game 1.
I bet the Under in Game 1 at 157.5, and it’s surprisingly moved up by two points, making this a phenomenal value at 159.5.
During the regular season, the Lynx sported the best defensive rating in the W at 94.7. Phoenix wasn’t far behind with the fourth-best defensive rating (97.2).
Defensive intensity has ramped up during the playoffs, as Minnesota has allowed a league-low 71.7 points, while PHX has allowed the second-fewest at 72.8.
Efficient shooting has also come at a premium when facing both teams in the playoffs. The Mercury have allowed a league-low 37.9% shooting, while the Lynx have allowed the third-lowest mark at 39.9%. Good luck scoring!
Don’t expect easier shots tonight. After leading at halftime, the Mercury were blitzed in the second half and ultimately gave up 82 points to the Lynx. Phoenix’s defense will be much better as it tries to avoid a 0-2 hole.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 159.5
Mercury +7.5
Lynx moneyline
Phoenix will be better on both ends of the floor tonight, but even when shots aren’t falling, it can lean on the strong defense that propelled it this deep into the playoffs.
The spread has shifted a point in favor of the Lynx, despite Game 1 being tied after three quarters. I love that movement.
I expect the Mercury to keep this one close, but Minnesota is the better team, and it surely understands the importance of winning both games at home and controlling homecourt advantage in this series against a tough opponent.
Including the playoffs and regular season, Minnesota is 22-3 straight up at Target Center.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +7.5 | Minnesota -7.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +270 | Minnesota -340
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Mercury vs Lynx game predictions
Mercury vs Lynx moneyline prediction
Phoenix is a great team, but Minnesota is on another level. The Lynx were the best team in the W in the regular season, and it wasn’t particularly close. That’s been the case in the postseason, and I expect Minnesota to take care of business in front of the home crowd again tonight, albeit in a closer affair.
Final score prediction: Lynx to win 76-72
Mercury vs Lynx spread prediction
Minnesota has won all three home matchups against the Mercury by double-digit points, but they aren't going to go down without a fight. The visitors understand how close they were in Game 1, and they’ll come out with a sense of urgency here to try and avoid falling into a 0-2 hole.
Mercury vs Lynx Over/Under prediction
These teams have hit the Under in five straight, and I don’t expect the intensity to slow down in a semifinal series. In a head-to-head clash between two of the WNBA’s best defenses, I’ll take the Under for a sixth straight meeting.
Mercury vs Lynx trend
The O/U record is 0-5 in the last five matchups between the Mercury and Lynx. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
How to watch Mercury vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Tuesday, September 23, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Lynx: DiJonai Carrington G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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