The Portland Fire look to salvage an 0-3 road trip tonight, but it won't be easy as they roll into Seattle for a fourth of July showdown with the Storm.
While Seattle enters as a 4.5-point favorite, the real smart money is on the total. My Fire vs. Storm predictions are locked onto the Over, as two of the league's most generous defenses are bound to trade fireworks all night long.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s game in my free WNBA picks for Saturday, July 4.
- UPDATE: Added Dominique Malonga prop!
Fire vs Storm prediction
Fire vs Storm best bet: Over 171.5 (-110)
The Portland Fire allow 92.3 ppg, the second-worst mark in the league. Opponents shoot to an effective field goal percentage of 53.9% against the Fire, while Portland commits fouls at a 24.7% rate, the WNBA’s third-highest mark.
The Seattle Storm’s raw numbers look a bit better – they allow 86.4 ppg, around league average – but like the Fire, they do allow lots of points off turnovers (16.7 ppg).
The Storm have also allowed five of their last six opponents to score 90+ points. I love the Over tonight at any total below 174 points.
COVERS INTEL: These teams give up plenty of easy buckets, as the Fire (15.2 ppg) and Storm (12.9 ppg) both rank in the bottom three in second-chance points allowed this season.
Fire vs Storm same-game parlay
While neither of these teams has been in great form lately, the Storm showed life last week, scoring double-digit wins over the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream.
And while their record doesn’t show it, the Fire have played like one of the worst teams in the league, with their -7.7 point differential being the worst in the league.
I’m taking the Storm to cover at home.
I also like Storm center Dominique Malonga to hit her scoring Over at 18.5 points. When healthy, Malonga has been Seattle’s best scoring threat, and has put up 20+ points in three of her last six games.
While Portland is a poor defensive team, they do a great job of defending the three-point line, holding opponents to 30.5% shooting from deep. That will take the scoring inside for Seattle, where Malonga will feast tonight.
Fire vs Storm SGP
- Storm -4.5
- Over 171.5
- Dominique Malonga Over 18.5 points
Fire vs Storm player prop pick
Dominique Malonga Over 9.5 rebounds (+105)
Portland’s interior issues are limited to defense. The Fire are also arguably the worst rebounding team in the WNBA, having a league-low 45.9% rebounding rate.
Their primary center, Megan Gustafson, brings down only 3.6 rebounds per game, and will find it hard to bang in the paint against the taller and heavier Malonga.
So while Malonga is only averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, she should have her way on the boards tonight. Malonga has gone for 10+ rebounds in four of her last six games, and I’m picking her to hit double-digits again on Saturday.
- Best bet: 10-14, -5.21 units
- SGP: 4-20, +2.55 units
- Player prop: 4-1, +2.38 units
Fire vs Storm odds
- Spread: Fire +4.5 (-115) | Storm -4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Fire +150 | Storm -180
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 | Under 171.5
Fire vs Storm trend
The Over is 5-0 in Portland’s last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fire vs Storm
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Saturday, July 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rose City SportsNet, Seattle 11 |
Fire vs Storm latest injuries
Fire: Karlie Samuelson (Out).
Storm: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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